Fmr. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: The economy has been resilient amid uncertainty
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Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
US labor market adds 147,000 jobs in June while unemployment falls to 4.1%
The June jobs report showed the US labor market remained more resilient than anticipated in the final month of the second quarter. The US economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, more than the 106,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to move higher to 4.3%. In May, the US economy added 144,000 jobs while the unemployment held flat at 4.2%. Those figures were revised higher on Friday from a previously reported 139,000 job additions in May. "You're just not seeing any feed through from tariff or trade related stress," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. "We got an absolutely solid payroll number." Brusuelas added, "This feeds right into the forecast of a slowing but solid economy." Average hourly earnings in June rose 0.2% over last month and 3.7% over the prior year. Economists expected wages to rise 0.3% over last month and 3.8% over the prior year. Meanwhile, labor force participation rate fell to 62.3% from 62.4% the month prior. Government employment rose by 73,000 workers in June, accounting for roughly half of the month's gains. "The risk going forward is that slower labor force growth keeps the unemployment rate low even as the number of unemployed rises," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. Following the report, increasing bets on a July interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve reversed. Markets are now pricing in just a 5% chance the central bank lowers rates at its July meeting, down from a 24% chance seen a day prior, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders also grew more skeptical of a September move from the Fed, with markets now pricing in a 78% chance the Fed cuts by the end of its September meeting, down from a 94% chance seen a day prior. "Today's data make a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting quite unlikely, in our view," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients on Friday. The release comes as signs of cooling in the job market have continued to emerge in recent data. On Wednesday, ADP data showed private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June. This marked the first month of job losses in the private sector since March 2023. Meanwhile, continuing filings for unemployment benefits recently hit their highest level in nearly four years. But the data has yet to indicate a significant, broad-based slowdown in the labor market. On Tuesday, the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings ended May at their highest level since November 2024. The release also showed that quits and hiring rates remained near decade lows. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance during a call with reporters on Wednesday that it is now clear that hiring momentum has slowed in the US labor market. Still, that doesn't mean the second half of the year will bring "consistent job declines," in Richardson's view. This is a breaking news post. More to come... Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
7 hours ago
- CNBC
Dollar holds firm against euro, yen as U.S. trade pressure mounts
The dollar held gains on Friday after President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill across the final hurdle and pressure mounted on countries to secure trade deals with the United States. The greenback rallied from multi-year lows against the euro and British pound hit earlier in the week after stronger than expected U.S. jobs data pushed out the timing for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. New Zealand's kiwi dollar, a common proxy for risk appetite, rose 0.2% to $0.608 NZD after U.S. stocks climbed to new record levels. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" of spending and tax cuts that is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt. With the U.S. closed for Independence Day, attention turns to Trump's July 9 deadline when sweeping tariffs take effect on countries like Japan that have not yet secured trade agreements. "The dynamic is raising questions about fiscal sustainability and bond market stability," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at referring to the bill's passage. "However, for now, those risks are being looked through as the markets embrace signs of labor market resilience and hopes for further U.S. trade deals." The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major peers, had its worst first half since 1973 as Trump's chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs stoked concerns about the U.S. economy and the safety of Treasuries. Trump said the U.S. will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face, a shift from earlier pledges to ink individual deals. Against the yen the dollar was traded at 144.69 yen, down 0.2% from late in the U.S. trading day when it surged 0.8%. The euro added 0.1% to $1.1769, while sterling traded at $1.3668, up 0.1%. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6577, up 0.1% in early trade. U.S. Labor Department's closely watch employment report on Thursday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs in June, well ahead of economists' forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 110,000. Market expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its July meeting rose to a 95.3% probability, up from 76.2% previously, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. Economists continue to expect the Fed would not start cutting rates again until September or even later.
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Yahoo
ETH Holds Firm as Strong U.S. Jobs Data Lifts S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to Record Highs
Ether (ETH) traded around $2,584.90 on July 3, registering a 0.55% gain over the past 24 hours as risk assets responded positively to robust U.S. labor market data, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model. The broader crypto market, as gauged by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), was up 0.08% during the same period. According to a report published by CNBC, the latest nonfarm payrolls report showed 147,000 jobs were added in June, beating expectations of 110,000 and exceeding the upwardly revised 144,000 from May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, defying forecasts for a rise to 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The strong data sent U.S. equities surging to fresh all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,279.35 and the Nasdaq Composite finishing at 20,601.10 — both up more than 0.8% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 344 points to settle at 44,828.53. However, the strength of the labor market complicated the outlook for monetary policy. It now seems highly unlikely that the Fed will lower rates at its next meeting and traders are no longer even certain that there will be any rate cuts in the second half of this year. Despite this, ether remained resilient, with traders encouraged by the broader risk-on sentiment that lifted crypto alongside equities. Technical Analysis Highlights ETH traded within a $71.20 range between $2,558.89 and $2,629.88 over the July 2 18:00 to July 3 17:00 window. A breakout during the 13:00 UTC hour on July 3 pushed price to $2,625.10, the session high, on volume of 464,365 ETH. A pullback followed during the 15:00 hour with ETH touching $2,569.18 before finding solid support. The 17:16 UTC candle saw a sharp volume spike (5,308 ETH), lifting price to $2,580.75 before brief consolidation. In the final hour from 16:59 to 17:58 UTC, ETH gained $4.93 (0.19%), closing near $2,584 with a bullish structure of higher lows. Resistance remains near $2,630, with momentum favoring a potential retest if macro conditions remain supportive. Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
