Weekly review: Rupee holds steady in early July despite global headwinds
Exchange rate highlights:
July 1 (Tuesday): The rupee opened around ₹85.70 and closed near ₹85.59, reflecting minor gains amid calm market conditions.
July 2 (Wednesday): The rupee showed slight weakness, influenced by global concerns over potential U.S. tariff policies. It traded in the ₹85.52–₹85.77 range.
July 3 (Thursday): The rupee appreciated to a one-month high, closing at ₹85.31. This gain was driven by foreign inflows and optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement between India and the US.
July 4 (Friday): The currency remained stable at around ₹85.62. Strong US jobs data supported the dollar, limiting further rupee gains.
July 5 (Saturday): Markets were mostly flat with the rupee estimated to remain in the ₹85.60–₹85.65 band.
Key influencing factors this week's rupee trend included range-bound trading, US trade and economic signals, capital inflows and the central bank's stable policies.
The rupee moved between ₹85.30 and ₹85.90 for most of the week, showing resilience despite global volatility.
Tariff concerns and strong US employment figures affected the dollar's performance, indirectly impacting the rupee.
A surge in foreign investor activity and dollar sales by banks helped the rupee gain midweek.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its support for the currency through measured interventions.
The analysts expect the rupee to remain in the ₹85–₹86 range in the near term. Market participants are watching for developments in US–India trade negotiations and upcoming US Federal Reserve comments. However, any major shift in foreign investment sentiment or global macroeconomic data could affect the rupee's direction next week, they warned.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
22 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Foxconn saga: Recall of Chinese workers hits India's iPhone manufacturing
With the recall of the Chinese workforce, the effort to transfer technology built by Apple has been interrupted at Indian plants premium Surajeet Das Gupta New Delhi Listen to This Article At a time when the automobile industry is coping with the shortage of heavy rare earth magnets, sourced primarily from China, Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn Hon Hai has delivered a blow to manufacturing of Apple products in India. Ahead of the iPhone 17 launch, which was supposed to have brought India centre stage in Apple's global supply chain, Foxconn has ordered hundreds of Chinese technicians and engineers to leave the Indian factories and return home. While there's no official reason for the recall, people in the know explained that it was at behest of the Chinese government, which has a
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
India-US interim trade deal: New Delhi draws red lines as Trump's deadline approaches, says ball in Washington's court
With India setting its red lines on key issues in sectors such as agriculture and dairy for the proposed interim trade agreement with the US, the ball is now in Washington's court to finalise the deal, sources said. They said if issues are settled, an interim trade pact could be announced before July 9, which marks the end of the 90-day suspension period of the Trump tariffs announced on April 2 on dozens of countries, including India. "India has drawn its red lines... now the ball is in the US court," a PTI report quoted sources as saying. The two countries announced in February that they will be starting negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) by September-October this year. However, before that, India and US are locking to finalise the interim trade pact. On April 2, the US imposed an additional 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods but suspended it for 90 days. However, the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed by America remains in place. India is seeking full exemption from this 26 per cent tariff. "If the proposed trade talks fail, the 26 per cent tariffs will come into force again," one of the sources said. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal last week stated that India does not enter into any trade agreement based on deadlines and will accept the proposed trade deal with the US only when it is fully finalised, properly concluded and in the national interest. Free Trade Agreements (FTA) are possible only when both sides get benefitted and it should be a win-win agreement, he said. "National interest should always be supreme. Keeping that in mind, if a deal is made then India is always ready to deal with developed countries," Goyal said on July 4. The Indian team returned from Washington last week after holding talks with the US on an interim trade pact. Differences are also there on steel, aluminium (50 per cent) and auto (25 per cent) tariffs. India has hardened its position on giving duty concessions to the US on agriculture and dairy products as both are sensitive subjects. India has never opened the dairy sector in any of the previous trade pacts signed. US President Donald Trump last week said his administration is sending letters to the first batch of 10-12 countries, sharing details of reciprocal tariff rates and the entire process could be completed by July 9. His comments came amid increasing suspense in India on whether New Delhi and Washington would be able to firm up a much-anticipated trade deal before the US president's tariff deadline ends. He has, however, not named the countries. The president has stated that the reciprocal tariffs would come into effect from August 1. While the US is looking at duty concessions in sectors like certain industrial goods, automobiles (electric vehicles particularly), wines, petrochemical products, dairy, and agriculture items such as apples, tree nuts, and alfalfa hay; India may look at duty cuts for labour-intensive sectors like apparels, textiles, gems and jewellery, leather, plastics, chemicals, oil seeds, shrimp, and horticulture products. US tariffs will kick in on August 1 if trading partners from Taiwan to the European Union do not strike deals with Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday. The rates will "boomerang back" to the sometimes very high levels which President Trump had announced on April 2 – before he suspended the levies to allow for trade talks and set a July 9 deadline for agreement, Bessent told CNN. According to an AFP report, Bessent confirmed comments by Trump to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday in which he also cited a new deadline: "Well, I'll probably start them on August 1. Well, that's pretty early. Right?" The tariffs were part of a broader announcement in April where Trump imposed a 10 per cent duty on goods from almost all trading partners, with a plan to step up these rates for a select group within days. But he swiftly paused the hikes until July 9, allowing for trade talks to take place. Countries have been pushing to strike deals that would help them avoid these elevated duties. So far, the Trump administration has unveiled deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, while Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower staggeringly high levies on each other's products. Bessent said the administration was "close to several deals." "I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days," he said. But he would not say which countries he was referring to, adding: "I don't want to let them off the hook." (With inputs from agencies)
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Ball in Washington's court on India-US interim trade pact before July 9
With India setting its red lines on key issues in sectors such as agriculture and dairy for the proposed interim trade agreement with the US, the ball is now in Washington's court to finalise the deal, sources said. They said if issues are settled, an interim trade pact could be announced before July 9, which marks the end of the 90-day suspension period of the Trump tariffs announced on April 2 on dozens of countries, including India. "India has drawn its red lines... now the ball is in the US court," they said. In February, the two countries announced starting negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement (BTA). They fixed a deadline to conclude the first tranche or phase of the BTA by fall (September-October) this year. Before that, the two sides are locking to finalise an interim trade pact. On April 2, the US imposed an additional 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods but suspended it for 90 days. However, the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed by America remains in place. India is seeking full exemption from this 26 per cent tariff. "If the proposed trade talks fail, the 26 per cent tariffs will come into force again," one of the sources said. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal last week stated that India does not enter into any trade agreement based on deadlines and will accept the proposed trade deal with the US only when it is fully finalised, properly concluded and in the national interest. FTAs are possible only when both sides get benefitted and it should be a win-win agreement, he has said. "National interest should always be supreme. Keeping that in mind, if a deal is made then India is always ready to deal with developed countries," Goyal had said on July 4. The Indian team returned from Washington last week after holding talks with the US on an interim trade pact. Differences are also there on steel, aluminium (50 per cent) and auto (25 per cent) tariffs. India has hardened its position on giving duty concessions to the US on agriculture and dairy products as both are sensitive subjects. India has never opened the dairy sector in any of the previous trade pacts signed. US President Donald Trump last week said his administration is sending letters to the first batch of 10-12 countries, sharing details of reciprocal tariff rates and the entire process could be completed by July 9. His comments came amid increasing suspense in India on whether New Delhi and Washington would be able to firm up a much-anticipated trade deal before the US president's tariff deadline ends. He has, however, not named the countries. The president has stated that the reciprocal tariffs would come into effect from August 1. While the US is looking at duty concessions in sectors like certain industrial goods, automobiles (electric vehicles particularly), wines, petrochemical products, dairy, and agriculture items such as apples, tree nuts, and alfalfa hay; India may look at duty cuts for labour-intensive sectors like apparels, textiles, gems and jewellery, leather, plastics, chemicals, oil seeds, shrimp, and horticulture products. The US is India's largest trading partner from 2021-22. During 2024-25, the bilateral trade in goods stood at $131.84 billion ($86.51 billion worth of exports, $45.33 billion of imports and $41.18 billion trade surplus). India's merchandise exports to the US rose 21.78 per cent to $17.25 billion in April-May this fiscal year, while imports rose 25.8 per cent to $8.87 billion. The two-way trade in services expanded from $54.1 billion in 2018 to an estimated $70.5 billion in 2024. India is also a key destination for American businesses such as professional, scientific, and technical services, manufacturing, and IT. The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India's total goods exports and over 6 per cent in imports and about 11 per cent in bilateral trade. India received $70.65 billion between April 2000 and March 2025, making Washington the third largest investor. In 2024, India's main exports to the US included drug formulations and biologicals ($8.1 billion), telecom instruments ($6.5 billion), precious and semi-precious stones ($5.3 billion), petroleum products ($4.1 billion), gold and other precious metal jewellery ($3.2 billion), ready-made garments of cotton, including accessories ($2.8 billion), and products of iron and steel ($2.7 billion). Imports included crude oil ($4.5 billion), petroleum products ($3.6 billion), coal, coke ($3.4 billion), cut and polished diamonds ($2.6 billion), electric machinery ($1.4 billion), aircraft, spacecraft and parts ($1.3 billion), and gold ($1.3 billion).
