Ford's new energy plan for Ontario increases reliance on nuclear, fossil fuels

National Observer

13-06-2025

The Ford government is projecting a major shift toward nuclear power to meet rising electricity demand and support Ontario's transition to net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Its newly released long-term Energy for Generations plan — billed as the province's first-ever integrated energy strategy — also shows an increased reliance on fossil fuels over the next decade, with emissions expected to rise before declining after 2030.
The province describes the plan as 'a comprehensive roadmap to meet future energy needs, support new housing, and power the most competitive economy in the G7.'
'As energy demand soars, our plan leverages 'Made-In-Ontario' to build affordable, clean, and always reliable power, built by and for Canadians,' Ontario's Minister of Energy and Mines Stephen Lecce said in a statement. The plan will help the province meet growing electricity demand while achieving over 99 per cent zero-emissions electricity by 2050, he added.
Critics say the plan misses key opportunities to scale-up renewables, puts energy affordability at risk and increases Ontario's dependence on foreign energy supplies.
The plan projects total electricity production in 2050 to be just under 275 terawatt-hours (TWh), with nuclear making up the largest share at over 200 TWh.
That means nuclear plants could supply more than 70 per cent of Ontario's electricity by 2050, up from about 50 per cent today.
The plan projects the province could need up to 17,800 MW of new nuclear power by 2050, equivalent to building five new Darlington nuclear power stations.
Currently, Ontario's nuclear fleet — Bruce, Darlington, and Pickering — provides 12,000 MW of capacity. The plan projects the province could need up to 17,800 MW of new nuclear power by 2050, equivalent to building five new Darlington stations.
To support this buildout, the province says it is preparing new nuclear sites and has already begun early engagement with First Nation and local communities. A new nuclear technology panel will guide technology choices and project timelines, with input from Ontario Power Generation, Bruce Power, the Independent Electricity System Operator and government officials.
The province says nuclear projects are complex and costly, and it plans to explore new ownership models and equity partnerships to attract private capital and help finance the expansion.
It aims to attract investment from Canadian pension funds and institutional investors to 'keep more Canadian energy dollars working here at home,' the province said.
'This isn't a plan — it's a policy statement'
Mark Winfield, professor at York University and co-chair of its Sustainable Energy Initiative, said the plan lacks a clear decision-making framework and basic accountability mechanisms. He said there is no process in place to evaluate whether the government's chosen energy path is the most affordable or lowest-risk for the province.
'There is no oversight or review process to assess whether this represents the least-cost or lowest-risk option for Ontario,' Winfield said.
By 'review,' Winfield refers to independent assessments — such as those typically conducted by regulatory bodies or outside experts — that evaluate costs, risks, and alternatives before major infrastructure decisions are finalized.
Winfield also questioned the long-term focus on nuclear. 'All of the proposed reactor technologies rely on enriched fuel that comes from the United States,' he said. 'This exposes Ontario to new energy security risks.'
In recent months, the Ford government has committed billions to nuclear energy, announcing new builds and refurbishments it says will create tens of thousands of jobs. Earlier this year, it unveiled plans for a massive nuclear plant near Port Hope, projected to generate 10,000 megawatts — enough to power 10 million homes — though key details like costs and timelines remain undisclosed.
Last week, the province introduced legislation to expand access to Ontario's public clean energy fund for nuclear projects.
Industry groups welcomed Ontario's new energy plan, with major players praising the government's commitment to both nuclear power and natural gas. Enbridge Gas called the plan a 'clear affirmation' of the essential role natural gas will continue to play, citing its importance for affordability, grid stability and economic growth. The company said investments in gas infrastructure are foundational to Ontario's prosperity.
The Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries also applauded the plan, calling it a bold step toward clean energy leadership. The group highlighted Ontario's strong nuclear track record and said the proposed expansion — including large reactors and SMRs — positions the province to secure long-term clean energy supply.
'Where are the renewables?'
Aliénor Rougeot, climate and energy program manager at Environmental Defence, said Ontario's new energy plan could lead to higher household bills, more air pollution and increased reliance on the US fossil gas. While she welcomed the idea of a long-term, integrated approach, she argued that the plan should be replaced with one built on publicly shared modelling.
To Rougeot, the most glaring problem is the plan's failure to prioritize wind and solar — Ontario's cheapest and cleanest energy sources.
'I kept flipping through the document, asking: Where are the renewables?' Rougeot said. The supply forecast is particularly troubling to her, as it shows Ontario having less wind and solar in 2050 than in 2030. She believes the refusal to give renewable energy a central role in the province's future grid will come at a high cost — both economically and environmentally.
Wind and solar make up approximately nine per cent and two per cent of Ontario's current electricity generation, respectively. In its plan, the government says their role is expected to grow over time. Starting in 2025, nearly 3,000 megawatts of energy storage will be added to the grid.
However, the plan argues that nuclear is more cost-effective and land-efficient than wind and solar. It claims that to generate the same amount of energy as a proposed 10,000 MW nuclear station at Wesleyville, Ontario would need roughly 100 times more land for solar and 500 times more land for wind.
But new analysis suggests solar doesn't require large tracts of land — for example, more than half of Toronto's electricity needs could be met through rooftop and parking lot solar alone.
A new report from the Ontario Clean Air Alliance argues that wind and solar could meet the same energy needs as the proposed Wesleyville nuclear station much faster and at far lower cost — potentially saving the province up to $19 billion annually. It highlights Ontario's untapped potential for offshore wind in the Great Lakes and large-scale solar at the Port Hope site.
Another report warns that electricity from new nuclear could cost up to 3.6 times more than onshore wind, three times more than solar, and 1.7 times more than offshore wind.
Lia Codrington, a senior analyst at the Pembina Institute, said the province's new energy plan represents a positive step toward long-term planning, noting that many jurisdictions around the world are already moving quickly toward clean energy and decarbonization. She viewed it as important for Ontario to follow that trend — and even potentially lead — by modernizing its electricity system.
Codrington questioned the government's argument that land use limits renewable energy expansion. She said wind turbines allow for shared land use — such as farming — and solar panels can be installed on rooftops, parking lots, and other built environments. In her view, decisions about land use should reflect what Ontarians want in their communities when it comes to energy sources, not just technical comparisons in megawatts per square kilometre.