A high school right-hander has never gone 1-1 in the MLB Draft. Why it may never happen

New York Times

07-07-2025

Seth Hernandez has all the makings of a No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft. The Corona (Calif.) High graduate has the build (6 feet 4, 190 pounds) to handle a starter's workload and the arsenal — a high-90s fastball and two plus secondary pitches already at age 19 — to potentially lead a major-league staff. He is a polished interviewee with a 100-watt smile who has competed against the top high school talent. So why are the odds stacked against Hernandez to go 1-1 in Sunday's MLB Draft?
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He throws with the wrong arm.
Since the June/July edition of the MLB Draft launched in 1965*, 320 high school right-handed pitchers have been selected in the first round, according to Baseball Reference. Hernandez will almost assuredly be the 321st, and likely the first high school pitcher selected this year, regardless of handedness. But unless the Washington Nationals buck a 60-year trend, Hernandez won't be the first name called on Sunday.
In the history of the draft, a high school right-hander has never gone 1-1.
(*There was an August supplemental draft in 1965 and 1966 and a January supplemental draft until 1986. Those numbers are not included here.)
Throughout the industry, high school pitchers are considered the most volatile demographic in the draft. The development path from high school to a major-league pitching staff can take years and the injury risk for all pitchers is high.
'High school pitchers are just very high risk,' said Sandy Alderson, who served as general manager, chief executive officer and president of baseball operations for the Oakland A's, San Diego Padres and New York Mets and also spent eight years in the MLB Commissioner's Office.
Though rare, there have been high school left-handers selected 1-1 — David Clyde in 1973 to the Texas Rangers, Brien Taylor in 1991 to the New York Yankees and Brady Aiken in 2014 to the Houston Astros. But the returns on those picks were disappointing. Of that trio, only Clyde reached the big leagues, and he finished an injury-shortened career with a 4.63 ERA in 416 1/3 major-league innings.
Since the draft's inception, 60.6 percent of the high school right-handers taken in the first round have made the major leagues, according to Baseball Reference. That number is almost as high as the percentage of first-round high school left-handers to reach the big leagues (61.2 percent). Those percentages actually outstrip the success rate of high school position player first-round picks reaching the majors (58.6 percent of 661 position players signed out of the first round).
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However, when it comes to first-round picks making a significant impact in the big leagues — especially over the past 20 years — high school pitchers have lagged far behind position players. In his book 'The Inside Game', The Athletic's Keith Law found that high school pitchers represented the lowest percentage of first-round picks to exceed 10 bWAR in their careers. And only 22.3 percent of all high school pitchers who signed out of any round have made the big leagues since the draft's inception, according to Baseball Reference.
Team drafting patterns reflect the industry consensus that high school pitching is a high-risk category. Among all high school players to sign out of the first round, nearly 60 percent have been position players, and in recent years, teams have increasingly shied away from high school pitchers in the top half of the first round.
Last year, 10 of the first 41 picks were pitchers, but the first high school pitcher wasn't taken until No. 24 (lefty Cam Caminiti to the Atlanta Braves). The first high school righty wasn't selected until pick 36 (Braylon Doughty to the Cleveland Guardians, who also had the No. 1 pick in the draft and used it to select college second baseman Travis Bazzana).
'The risk of taking a high school pitcher 1-1 is pretty large,' Athletics manager Mark Kotsay said. 'For teams, whether it's right-handed or left-handed, I don't feel there's leverage in one versus the other. Really, I think they're just going to identify all the tools and traits that come with being that type of (1-1) player.'
While it's clear MLB scouting departments are gun-shy about taking high school pitchers high in the draft, it doesn't fully explain why MLB scouting departments have taken the plunge on a high school left-hander three times with the first pick but have never dared to take a high school right-hander.
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It may be a matter of scarcity. Statistically, only 10 percent of the world's population is left-handed, which means the majority of baseball players will be right-dominant. Given the sheer number of right-handers available to teams, taking a risk on a high school righty as a 1-1 pick may not be as worth it as acquiring a player with a more rare skill set, like a shortstop who can hit and stick at the position long term.
'There's more righties, so you're gonna have more of a pool to choose from,' Yankees right-hander Devin Williams said. 'An elite level lefty coming out of high school is kind of too difficult to pass up on.'
Athletics assistant general manager Billy Owens, who has more than two decades of experience scouting the draft, points out that overall, more right-handed pitchers will be selected in the MLB Draft than any other position group.
'Every team needs pitching and that particular position has the most depth, attrition, volatility, high ceiling, sheer talent, volume and risk involved,' Owens said. 'The fact that it hasn't happened ever is an indicator of the reason. Although there is a first for everything, and I believe Hernandez will be in the discussion (at 1-1).'
There have been a few years when a high school righty got close to being the No. 1 pick. In 2017, Hunter Greene was the No. 2 selection out of Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks, Calif.) High. It took a few years and Tommy John surgery, but Greene is now the Reds' No. 1 starter. Josh Beckett, who was taken second in the draft by the then-Florida Marlins in 1999 out of Spring High in Texas, has the fourth-most bWAR (35.7) of any No. 2 pick in draft history. On the other hand, Tyler Kolek was the second pick by the Marlins out of Shepard High in Texas in 2014 and never made the major leagues.
The closest a high school righty might have come to being the No. 1 pick was in 1990, when a fireballer named Todd Van Poppel was the consensus top prospect in the draft. Van Poppel also had a strong commitment to the University of Texas and a super-agent in Scott Boras. In the end, his bonus demands exceeded what the Braves were willing to spend on the No. 1 pick that year. The Braves had to 'settle' for high school infielder (and eventual Hall of Famer) Chipper Jones, while Van Poppel found a taker at his price point in the then-big money A's, who were coming off two straight trips to the World Series, as the No. 14 pick.
At the time, it was easy to see why Van Poppel topped draft prospect lists. He had a starter's build and an easy delivery with premium stuff that scouts could dream on. Though Van Poppel would pitch 11 seasons in the big leagues, his career never met the expectations that surrounded him as a high school senior. He signed a major-league deal with the A's coming out of the draft (something no longer allowed under the current rules) and made his MLB debut as a 19-year-old in 1991. He logged only one MLB start that season, allowing five runs in 4 2/3 innings, and then missed a big chunk of the 1992 season with shoulder soreness.
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Ultimately, he spent 4 1/2 seasons in the big leagues with the A's before being traded to Detroit, finishing his time in Oakland with a 5.75 ERA in 406 2/3 innings. He found success later in his career as a reliever with the Chicago Cubs, but had minus-0.3 bWAR in 907 innings for his major-league career.
Would Van Poppel have had a better career had he not been rushed to the majors? Alderson, who was the A's GM in 1990, isn't sure, but he did advise Yankees GM Gene Michael not to give Taylor — the high school lefty who was the No. 1 pick in 1991 — a major-league deal the following season because of the pressure the major-league contract put on the A's to get Van Poppel to the big leagues so quickly.
'I told him, 'I don't know what you're going to do, but you'd be crazy to give him a major-league contract,'' he said.
Both Van Poppel and Taylor, who injured his shoulder in a bar fight in 1993 and never reached the major leagues, are cautionary tales on the dangers of taking a high school pitcher in the first round. But MLB scouting departments may be less influenced by the failed picks of the past than encouraged by the recent success stories of college pitchers going high in the first round and then reaching the big leagues in under two years. That 'quick from college to the majors pipeline' makes it even more unlikely a team will take a risk on a high school pitcher with the first pick.
'I think it's less and less likely today that (any) high school pitcher would be taken 1-1, because college programs have gotten so much better,' Alderson said, pointing out that the pitching labs started in college programs before MLB organizations began building their own.
Milwaukee Brewers pitching coach Chris Hook, who has over 20 years of experience coaching and developing pitchers, sees the value in a pitcher spending time in a college program. While players are throwing harder than ever, he believes if a pitcher plays in college, it helps lessen the risk that their bodies won't be able to hold up in the pros.
Regardless, over the course of a career, a position player is likely to produce more value due to the sheer number of games played — and be a less risky selection from an injury perspective — than a pitcher, high school or college. With the No. 1 pick, a position player is almost always going to be the preferred option, except in a year when there is a certified ace like Paul Skenes or Stephen Strasburg, Alderson says. And in those cases, prospects like Skenes or Strasburg built their 'can't-miss' resumes thanks in large part to the experience of pitching for and developing in a top collegiate program.
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'The bottom line is that the top two or three players in the draft are can't-miss types, and generally speaking, you can't predict a high school right-handed pitcher is going to be a can't-miss because of the injury risk,' Alderson said.
'There are probably three or four players who could be taken at 10 (in any given draft) and there are four or five players who could be taken at 11,' Alderson added. 'It's just not a consensus after you get past the first handful or so.'
Hook believes that talent will always rise to the top no matter where players are drafted. But he says certain pitchers, such as standout Brewers rookie right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, are the types of talents who should have gone 1-1.
'I mean, the guy's doing 100 (mph),' Hook said of Misiorowski, the 63rd pick in the 2022 draft. 'JUCO guy, but I think he was probably throwing probably pretty equivalent the year before that out of high school.'
The last two times the Nationals had the No. 1 pick in the draft, the industry consensus on the top selection was overwhelming. (They took Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010.) The Nationals aren't showing their hand this year, but Hernandez was one of the players they interviewed at the MLB Draft Combine last month. The only teams he met with at the combine are selecting in the top 10 and there is a strong belief that he won't get past pick 10, according to Law.
Hernandez is a long shot to be that precedent-breaking first high school right-hander to go 1-1, but he likely won't be waiting long to hear his name called Sunday.
'Hernandez is special, regardless of age, demographic, high school or college. He could be one of the quickest movers in this draft and his ceiling is enormous,' Owens said. 'I believe Hernandez is so special that he should be considered anywhere in a premium spot in the 2025 draft.'
(Top photo of Hernandez: Ric Tapia / Getty Images)