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The contributions from trading and optimization are expected to be 'significantly lower' for the second quarter compared with the first for segments that span oil and gas trading, London-based Shell said in a statement on Monday.
Shell's sprawling but secretive in-house trading business is often one of its biggest profit drivers, and Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said in March that its traders haven't lost money in a single quarter over the past decade.
Shell's shares fell as much as 2.6% and were trading at £25.58 ($34.82) at 8:21 a.m. in London.
The weaker contribution from trading eroded an increase in margins from refining and chemicals, although the latter division is nevertheless expected to report a loss when Shell publishes its earnings results in late July.
Oil swung wildly in the quarter, diving to a four-year low in April as US President Donald Trump unleashed his global trade war and OPEC+ boosted supply. It then spiked last month as Israel struck targets in Iran before retreating back below $70 as tensions calmed.
Sawan has focused on cutting costs, boosting reliability and shedding underperforming assets in an effort to close a valuation gap between Shell and its US competitors. The strategy, which includes refocusing the company on its core oil and gas business and an emphasis on shareholder returns, has helped Shell shares outperform its closest rivals this year but left it with questions hanging over its future oil production growth.
Output decreased by nearly 100,000 barrels a day from the first quarter, largely because of Shell's sale of its onshore Nigeria subsidiary and scheduled maintenance. Shell had already notified investors of its expected production with oil and gas volumes in line with previous guidance, given in May.
Shell is the world's biggest trader of liquefied natural gas, and has forecast that global demand will grow by about 60% by 2040. Its LNG Canada project, which began its first exports in recent weeks, is one of a slew of new projects coming online globally in the next few years. Liquefaction volumes in the second quarter were in line with the first quarter.
Shell's trading update comes less than two weeks after the company announced it had no intention of making an offer for BP Plc, in a statement that quelled months of speculation and ties its hands for the next six months under UK takeover rules.
The company is scheduled to report second-quarter results July 31.
(Updates with context throughout.)
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