Software suggests Rubin Observatory will discover millions of solar system objects in its first year
A new type of computer simulation predicts that the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile will discover 2.85 million previously undetected objects in the solar system in its first year of operation, with millions more to be spotted in the years that follow.
The discovery campaign, which is due to begin in earnest later this year, should expand the known population of small bodies in the solar system by a factor of four to nine, said University of Washington astronomer Mario Juric, a member of the research team behind the open-source Sorcha simulation software.
'With this data, we'll be able to update the textbooks of solar system formation and vastly improve our ability to spot — and potentially deflect — the asteroids that could threaten Earth,' Juric said today in a news release.
Several studies describing the software and the predictions have been accepted for publication by The Astronomical Journal. The project was led by researchers from Queen's University Belfast in collaboration with colleagues from UW, the Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The software's name is derived from the Gaelic word for 'brightness.'
Sorcha starts with the Rubin Observatory's planned observing schedule, factors in how the telescope makes its observations, and matches up those capabilities with the best model for the current state of the solar system and its reservoirs of small bodies such as asteroids.
'Accurate simulation software like Sorcha is critical,' said Queen's University astronomer Meg Schwamb, who led the research team. 'It tells us what Rubin will discover and lets us know how to interpret it. Our knowledge of what objects fill Earth's solar system is about to expand exponentially and rapidly.'
The software suggests that, over the course of a 10-year campaign known as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, Rubin will map more than 5 million main-belt asteroids, 127,000 near-Earth objects, 109,000 Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter's orbit, 37,000 trans-Neptunian objects and about 2,000 orbit-crossing objects known as Centaurs.
Jake Kurlander, a UW doctoral student who's the principal author of one of the studies, said Rubin's observations should double the number of known asteroids in the solar system in less than a year. 'Rubin's unparalleled combination of breadth and depth make it a uniquely effective discovery machine,' he said.
The observatory's Simonyi Survey Telescope — which is named after the family of Seattle software pioneer Charles Simonyi — is designed to observe small bodies multiple times using different optical filters, revealing their surface colors. Past solar system surveys typically made observations using a single filter.
'With the LSST catalog of solar system objects, our work shows that it will be like going from black-and-white television to brilliant color,' said Joe Murtagh, a doctoral student at Queen's University.
The Rubin Observatory team has already started making preliminary observations and will share some of those early images at a First Look event on June 23.
Check out Sorcha.space for more information about the Sorcha simulation software. The Rubin Observatory is funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science, with additional support from other organizations and private contributors including Charles Simonyi and Bill Gates. The research papers relating to the Sorcha project include:
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Gizmodo
10 hours ago
- Gizmodo
Rubin Observatory's Stunning Result Proves It's a ‘Game Changer' for Spotting Dangerous Asteroids
Astronomers usually keep their eyes on the sky, but on Monday, June 23, the community turned its attention toward Washington, D.C., as scientists from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory unveiled the telescope's first images. Many have waited more than 20 years to see Rubin in action, and its initial findings did not disappoint. Rubin, a joint initiative of the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Science, recently conducted its first 10 hours of test observations. In just that short period, the observatory produced dazzling images and discovered more than 2,000 previously unknown asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids. None of them pose a threat to our planet, but through this wealth of new data, the observatory has already proved to be a game changer for asteroid hunters working on planetary defense. By conducting unprecedentedly fast and detailed surveys of the entire southern sky, Rubin will allow scientists to find and track more space rocks than ever before. 'As this camera system was being designed, we all knew it was going to be breathtaking in what it delivered, but this has exceeded all our expectations,' Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and inventor of the Torino Scale—a tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events—told Gizmodo. Data on those 2,000 new asteroids went directly to the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center (MPC), the globally recognized organization responsible for cataloging and disseminating data on asteroids, comets, and other small celestial bodies. It plays an essential role in the early detection and monitoring of asteroids that threaten Earth. The MPC has spent years preparing for the deluge of data from Rubin, ramping up its software to process massive amounts of observations. When the first round officially came flooding in on Monday, it was 'nerve-racking and exciting simultaneously,' Matthew Payne, MPC director, told Gizmodo. This was just a taste of what's to come. In a few months, Rubin will begin the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), a decade-long, near-continuous survey of the southern sky. This will produce an ultrawide, ultra-high-definition time-lapse record of the universe. In terms of asteroids, that means the MPC will receive about 250 million observations per year from LSST, according to Payne. 'For us, that's a game changer in the total amount of data that we're getting, because at the moment we get somewhere in the region of 50 to 60 million a year,' he said. Rubin's remarkable abilities stem from its remarkable instruments. Equipped with a unique three-mirror telescope design and the largest digital camera ever built, this observatory can conduct all-sky surveys while still detecting very faint objects like asteroids. This bridges a key gap between existing technologies, Payne explained. When hunting space rocks, 'you need to go as deep as possible,' Peter Veres, an MPC astrophysicist, told Gizmodo. 'That's what the LSST does, and none of the survey telescopes in the world that aim at planetary defense do that.' During this 10-year survey, Rubin will observe the cosmos on an automated schedule using its 27.6-foot (8.4-meter) Simonyi Survey telescope. Each 30-second exposure will cover an area about 45 times the size of the full Moon. Then, the enormous LSST camera will capture wide-field images and stitch them together to create a complete view of the southern sky every three nights. The combination of Rubin's huge field of view, short exposure time, and its ability to rapidly sweep the sky will yield an avalanche of asteroid discoveries, Veres explained. In 2005, Congress ordered NASA to build a near-Earth object (NEO) survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of all near-Earth asteroids and comets at least 328 feet (100 meters) in diameter. If one of these objects struck our planet, it would cause mass destruction that would decimate life on a continental scale, Payne said. The goal was to find 90% of them by 2020, but current estimates show NASA has only found about 40%, he explained. LSST could help NASA pick up the pace. 'It's just going to start revolutionizing our understanding of this population of things,' Payne said. Binzel agrees. 'Those objects are out there, whether we see them or not,' he said. 'Now we're going to see them, and we'll be able to determine that most—if not all of them—are going to safely pass by the Earth in the coming decades. But the best news is if an object has our name on it already, we will be able to find it most likely many, many years—if not decades—before it would come toward Earth.' In theory, that would give NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDOC) time to launch a mission to intercept the asteroid. PDOC is still developing this capability, but in 2022, it launched the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which sent a spacecraft on a 10-month-long journey to collide with the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos. The collision successfully changed Dimorphos' orbital path, demonstrating NASA's ability to deflect a large asteroid away from Earth if given enough time. Given Rubin's clear potential to revolutionize planetary defense efforts—and the global attention it has received—one would expect NASA to be singing its praises. That has not been the case. The agency has kept strangely quiet about the observatory's launch—and in fact, it appears to be ignoring Rubin's first discoveries altogether. 'It's a warp drive version of finding asteroids,' Keith Cowing, an astrobiologist and former NASA employee who now serves as editor of NASA Watch, told Gizmodo. 'You'd think that the planetary defense people would be in the front row cheering it on, saying, 'send me the data!'' NASA did not share any public information about Monday's event and has not promoted the observatory's findings. When Gizmodo reached out for comment on Rubin's contributions to planetary science and defense, NASA declined and recommended reaching out to the observatory instead. On Tuesday, June 24, the agency's Office of the Inspector General published a report on the implementation and management of NASA's planetary defense strategy. The report only briefly mentions Rubin alongside NASA's forthcoming NEO Surveyor, a space telescope designed to find asteroids that could hit Earth. 'These new observatories are expected to find and track significantly more NEOs than current capabilities, which will likely mean a substantial increase in necessary follow-up observations,' the report states. NASA's PDCO and its planetary science program will undoubtedly use data gathered by the LSST, so what's with the cold shoulder? Cowing thinks it's a symptom of the agency's inner turmoil. 'They're jittery at NASA,' he said. 'Their budgets are being cut from all sides—they don't know what the final budget will be, but the White House wants to slash it—and they're having to react to this with whatever is at hand.' Indeed, President Donald Trump's 2026 budget proposal would cut NASA's science funding by a whopping 47%, potentially killing more than 40 missions, according to The Planetary Society. 'The only good news is what didn't get shot,' Cowing said. He suspects that most NASA employees—including planetary defense personnel—are in survival mode. 'What do you do when you simply don't know if you'll have a job, if the person next to you will have a job, or if you're gonna need to compete for the same job?' Cowing asked. 'That's what's at the heart of this. It's just this general malaise and fear, and people are simply not doing the routine, professional, collaborative, collegial work that they would do across agencies and countries.' As NASA science crumbles, it's unclear whether the agency will have the resources and personnel to take full advantage of Rubin's data. Though the PDCO currently leads the world's planetary defense efforts, that could soon change. Binzel, however, is optimistic. 'Great nations do great science,' he said. 'I continue to have faith that our nation will continue to do great science.
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Yahoo
Cosmic wonders from Chile, record heat wave and July Fourth food: The week in review
A 'cosmic treasure chest' has been opened with the debut of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in northern Chile as astronomers released startling first images, including one of a southern region of the Virgo Cluster capturing a stunning 10 million galaxies. That was just 0.05% of the 20 billion galaxies the telescope is expected to capture with its car-sized digital camera in the coming decade. Its principal mission: the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, an ultrawide, ultra-high-definition time-lapse record of the universe, according to the facility's website − 'the largest astronomical movie of all time.' 13.5 billion years back in time: James Webb space telescope creates a vast cosmic map A dangerous heat wave smothered a large chunk of the central and eastern United States for days before easing, sending temperature records into oblivion as a huge atmospheric 'heat dome' trapped the scorching air over more than 150 million people. Baltimore's Inner Harbor soared to 104 degrees, just short of the 106 degrees in Death Valley, California. The town of North Hartland, Vermont, hit 101 degrees − hotter than Yuma, Arizona. In Paterson, New Jersey, graduation ceremonies were rescheduled for five high schools. And in the nation's capital, the Washington Monument was closed for most of the week as temperatures topped 100. Classic Fourth of July barbecues will cost a little more this year: $130 for food and drinks for a gathering of 10 people, a 2.2% increase from last year. That's according to a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute analysis of data from NielsenIQ, which tracks food scanned at U.S. retailers. The menu used in the analysis: barbecued chicken breasts, beef sliders, hot dogs, fruit, vegetable platter, potato salad, cornbread, cake, apple pie, ice cream, beer, wine and sodas. But lots of people will pay nothing, according to another survey by Coupon Follow − the 1 out of 3 people who don't plan to celebrate Independence Day at Morissette's early days in the music industry were no strawberry festival. When faced with the 'lovely patriarchy' of the '90s, she told The Guardian in an interview, 'there was no one to hide behind,' adding that if men in the industry could not sleep with her, 'they didn't know what to do with me.' She was more of an introvert and had trouble breaking through, she said: "So, tequila – anything that allowed me to be the life of the party. ... Anything that would help me pretend I'm not me." But now, said the singer, 51, who has been open about her addiction struggles, 'there's zero desire to present as something I'm not." Her life in pictures: Alanis Morissette through the years Oklahoma City closed out its season with a rumble heard across the NBA. The Thunder dominated the Indiana Pacers 103-91 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, pulling ahead in the third and fourth quarters after Indiana lost star guard Tyrese Haliburton to a torn Achilles tendon late in the first quarter. The championship is Oklahoma City's first since relocating from Seattle in 2008; for the Pacers, close wasn't good enough for their second straight season with a strong playoff run before falling to the eventual NBA champs. Indiana has never won an NBA title. − Compiled and written by Robert Abitbol, USA TODAY copy chief This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Heat wave bakes US, Chile telescope reaches for stars: Week in review
New York Times
11 hours ago
- New York Times
This Is Not the Way We Usually Imagine the World Will End
If our species manages to hang on for a few billion additional years, we might be in for a wild ride — stars passing in the vicinity of the sun could cause planets in our solar system to collide or even be ejected, according to a paper published last month in the journal Icarus. The findings even suggest a scenario in which our world ends not consumed by the sun, but in a carom prompted by the powers of gravity. The Milky Way is home to hundreds of billions of stars. Each one is in motion, zinging in its own orbit around the galactic center. Consider a long enough span of time — something astronomers are wont to do — and it's inevitable that another star will pass closer to the sun than Proxima Centauri, currently our nearest stellar neighbor. In fact, calculations based on orbits of stars cataloged by the Gaia spacecraft suggest that, every million years, 33 stars, give or take a few, do just that. But for another star's gravitational effects to have a sizable impact on our solar system, you need a much closer shave than that, according to Nate Kaib, an astronomer at the Planetary Science Institute. 'Once you get a couple hundred times the distance from the Earth to the Sun, you can really start to destabilize stuff,' he said. Dr. Kaib and Sean Raymond, an astronomer at the Bordeaux Astrophysical Laboratory in France, set about determining the likelihood and effects of such cosmic near misses. The researchers ran thousands of computer simulations, modeling the gravitational effects of passing stars on the solar system's eight planets and Pluto. The team considered stars with masses, velocities and orbits representative of objects in our stellar neighborhood. Each simulation modeled the passage of five billion years. Dr. Kaib said that such a long-term perspective is necessary because it often takes tens of millions of years or even longer for a planet's orbit to be perturbed by a passing star. 'You don't see the effects for a long, long time,' he said. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
