Early arrival of monsoon in India brings worry for Nepal flood survivors as nation expects above-average monsoon

India Gazette

25-05-2025

By Binod Prasad Adhikari
Kavrepalanchowk [Nepal], May 25 (ANI): It is where Muna Tamang's house used to stand, along with four dozen others, till September 25, 2024. Now it has turned into an embankment covered with sand and rock, where the Roshi river carrying the murky water still flows through. (Drone shot has been named accordingly).
Eight months since flooding disaster that struck the Himalayan Nation from September 26 to 28 flood survivors like Tamang are trying to live a normal life in Narke along the BP Highway in Kavrepalanchowk district. She lost her properties to the flood in the Roshi river, where her house and plots of land were swept away by the flood, bringing a drastic change to her life.
'Last year, before the flood and landslide hit, there had been incessant rainfall for a few days. We were inside our home only, at around 5/6 in the morning, the river had started flowing up to the level of the suspension bridge, the flood tore down the bridge, and then it started flowing through our homes. We rushed out to the heights, and we could not take out our belongings. All of our houses were swept away by the floods,' Tamang told ANI as she sat inside her general store, which serves as a dine-in hotel as well.
Muna's worries has been aided by the early arrival of monsoon that has already hit the coast of India's southernmost state of Kerala on Saturday, eight days earlier than usual, marking the earliest arrival in 16 years.
The early arrival of monsoon with a warning of above average rainfall this year comes as a bane for the flood victims like Muna, which delivers nearly 70 per cent of the rain that Nepal needs to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs.
'We are living in fear; the trauma of last year's September still lingers in our memory. If there is rainfall in high-lying areas, then the river would be swollen, and recently, in the third week of May, the river was roaring, hitting the embankments. We are feeling safe temporarily for being near the market area as it lies in high areas,' Tamang told ANI further, as her area was again hit by intense floods in the third week of May.
The September flooding not only swept away Muna's home and properties but also the sections of BP Highway, the shortest road connection to the Southern Plains of Nepal. Vehicles are now ferrying through the damaged sections of the major highway which took two decades to complete construction with the help of temporary embankment build along the riverside.
Worries for Nepal's flood victims increase further as the Himalayan Nation is likely to witness above-normal monsoon rains for the second consecutive year, according to a regional consensus among South Asian meteorologists. Above-normal rains mean destruction and disaster in the Himalayan Nation.
A statement issued by the 31st Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum on April 29 indicated that most parts of South Asia are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, which spans from June to September.
Monsoon onset typically occurs on June 13 and withdraws by October 2 but this year it has arrived early. However, some parts in the north, south, east, and northeast of South Asia may experience normal to below-normal rainfall. Nepal's monsoon relies on the weather pattern of the Bay of Bengal of India from where the monsoon clouds generates and bring rain to the Himalayan Nation.
The regional climate outlook was jointly prepared by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of South Asia, with the assistance of international experts, during the Pune, India session.
Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in its latest seasonal outlook mentions that 'most parts of Nepal are likely to receive above-average rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season, which spans from June 1 to September 30 (Jestha 18 to Ashwin 14). The forecast indicates a 55 to 65 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall in the eastern Karnali, northern Lumbini, and most of Gandaki Province.'
The outlook also predicts that the southern Sudurpaschim, western Lumbini, northeastern Gandaki, and northern parts of Bagmati and Koshi Provinces face a 45 to 55 percent likelihood of heavier monsoon rains.
As per the outlook, regions such as the eastern and southern Madhesh Province and other parts of the country are expected to see a 35 to 45 per cent chance of receiving above-average rainfall.
'There is a 55 to 65 per cent probability of higher-than-normal daytime temperatures in the northwestern Sudurpaschim, northern Karnali and Lumbini, western Gandaki, western Madhesh, and central Bagmati regions,' the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology forecast stated.
The department also reviewed last year's (2081 BS) monsoon performance, noting that the forecast of above-average rainfall proved accurate in most regions. Likewise, predictions of higher temperatures were reflected in actual recorded data.
The DHM already has advised the public and relevant authorities to remain prepared for potential weather-related challenges, especially in flood- and landslide-prone areas during the peak monsoon period.
The World Bank's recent Nepal Development Update noted that severe floods and landslides from September 26 to 28, last year, caused by unusually intense monsoon activity intensified by climate change, resulted in damage amounting to 0.8 per cent of the GDP. The total damage is estimated at Rs46.7 billion, affecting infrastructure, agriculture, and social sectors.
As the Roshi river flows further down to the Southern plains, it had unleashed further terror. The devastating floods and landslides had swept away around a 10-kilometre-long road from Bhakundebesi in Kavre to Nepalthok of Sindhuli on September 27-28. The road was washed away in some places and was severely damaged in others.
The Kavre section of the BP Highway was badly damaged in Mamtikhola, Kaldhunga, Boksikuna, Narkepul, Pinathalibesi, Dalabesi, Bhyakurekhola, and Mangaltar, among other places. The roads were swept away in these areas.
According to the Road Division Office in Bhaktapur, 'diversions have been constructed in the affected area to resume transportation along the highway. It is suspected that it will take months, if not years, to reconstruct the disaster-ravaged highway to its previous condition.'
'After the Roshi flood, the major portion of the highway was destroyed. We have been deploying the excavator to construct embankments for the vehicles from Nepalthok to Kathmandu,' Homendra Kumar Yadav, Sub-engineer at the Road Division, Sindhuli, told ANI.
The BP Highway, built with Japanese assistance, started on foot in 1995 and was completed in 2015, at the cost of NRs 21.5 billion. The single-lane 160 km highway links Banepa of Kavre to Bardibas of Mahottari through Sindhuli. The highway is the shortest route connecting eastern Tarai and hills with the Capital.
Amrit Pariyar, residing in Khurkot, a centre point along the highway, still recalls the horrors of last September's monsoon mayhem. Having home about 500 meters upstream from the Sunkoshi River, Amrit bore witness to the destruction of the bridge that worked as lifeline for most of the people in Sindhuli as it connects Ramechhap and other adjoining districts.
'The bridge got swept away in between 10 to 11 AM on that day of September, I was near the area, the river was carrying wooden logs and debris which got stuck in the bridge and the force of water swept off the bridge,' Amrit told ANI taking break from his work at his home.
The flood in Sunkoshi River that day swept one suspension bridge and a section of the bridge that connected Sindhuli with Ramechhap. The twisted metals and remains of the suspension bridge stuck onto the slopes across the river explain the velocity of the river that day.
'The bridge was vital connection for us. It was the only means for us to get across to fetch the fodder for our cattle's as well as to travel to Ramechhap District and its administrative capital Manthali, it was halted for few days. Thankfully, the bridge got constructed within days but the monsoon is bringing on worries,' Amrit added further.
In case of return of river condition like of last year, the residents of Khurkot might not have an escape route as the BP Highway still remains in ruins with slightest pre-monsoon rainfall halting the movement adds on tension.
The floods and landslides in mid-September damaged various sections of the BP Highway, and the reconstruction is expected to cost around Rs 9.66 billion. A post-flood study revealed that reconstruction would require a significant amount of money.
The Division Road Office, Bhaktapur, estimates that the reconstruction will cost around NRs 9.66 billion for various locations along the BP Highway, from Bhakunde to Nepalthok. The floods completely damaged eight kilometres of the 12-kilometre road section from Chowkidanada in Namo Buddha, Kavrepalanchok, to Kaladhunga in Roshi Rural Municipality.
The study has shown that there is need to construct three types of walls (RCC retaining, plum, and gabion walls) on this section of the road. Some areas along the highway require a bridge or install a wall.
With monsoon set to kick in next month and the roads unprepared for the possible disaster it would be only possible to operate the vehicle after the water level recedes.
'If there would be pour down, more than average then it would be impossible for us to operate the vehicle but there is proper provision in the contract for the movement of the vehicle which is to construct the embankment whenever the current recedes and then only we will be able to operate vehicles,' Yadav said. (ANI)