Stocks Retreat as President Trump Ramps Up Tariff Threats
Stock indexes are retreating today as President Trump ramps up his threats to impose higher tariffs, sparking a risk-off environment in asset markets. Late Thursday, President Trump said a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. The new Canadian tariffs would not apply to goods traded within the rules of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, and a lower 10% would be kept on some energy-related imports. He also said he plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most US trade partners.
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Higher bond yields are also weighing on stocks today, with the 10-year T-note yield up +5 bp to 4.40%. Bond yields are climbing today on concern that President Trump's threats to impose higher tariffs on Canada and other US trading partners will lead to higher US inflation that could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.
The price of Bitcoin (^BTSUSD) is up more than +3% today at a new record high. Bitcoin has rallied more than +9% this week after the US House Committee on Financial Services announced on Tuesday that the week of July 14 will be 'Crypto Week.' The US House Committee on Ways and Means has planned an oversight subcommittee hearing on July 16 entitled, 'Making America the Crypto Capital of the World,' which may lead to more crypto-friendly regulations.
Stocks continue to see downward pressure as President Trump has vowed to push forward with his aggressive tariff regime, stressing he would not offer additional extensions on country-specific tariffs set to take effect on August 1. Earlier this week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports that will include semi-finished goods, and said that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don't relocate production to the US within the next year. In addition, despite stating that the US was close to a trade deal with India, Mr. Trump said he would still impose a 10% tariff on India's goods for their participation in BRICS, a group of developing nations he claimed were 'set up to hurt' the US.
Another hurdle for stocks is the upcoming earnings season, which begins in earnest next week. Bloomberg Intelligence data show that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 companies is for a rise of +2.8% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.91%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 9-month high and closed up +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.19%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -10 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +4.8 bp to 4.397%. T-note prices are sliding today as President Trump's threats to impose higher tariffs on Canada and other US trading partners fueled concern about higher US inflation that could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. Also, negative carryover from today's plunge in 10-year German bunds to a 3-1/4 month low is weighing on T-notes.
European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 3-1/4 month high of 2.734% and is up +1.8 bp at 2.723%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.5 bp to 4.620%.
UK May manufacturing production fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m and the biggest decline in 10 months.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said, 'The bar for another ECB interest rate cut is very high, and there would only be a case for another rate cut if we saw signs of a material deviation of inflation from our target over the medium term. And at the moment, I see no signs of that.'
Swaps are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Chip makers are sliding today, weighing on the broader market. Intel (INTC) is down more than -2%. Also, Microchip Technology (MCHP), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are down more than -1%.
Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) is down more than -40% after the FDA declined to approve the company's treatment candidate aimed at treating a disease of the heart muscle associated with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
Civista Bancshares (CIVB) is down more than -10% after announcing the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 3.29 million shares of common stock at a price of $21.25 per share, below Thursday's closing price of $24.82.
Albemarle (ALB) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $57.
Oscar Health (OSCR) is down more than -4% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $10.
Illumina (ILMN) is down more than -2% after Scotiabank downgraded the stock to sector perform from sector outperform.
Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) is down more than -1% after Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded the stock to underperform from market perform with a price target of $120.
Drone-related companies are climbing today after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued orders to ramp up production and deployment of drones. Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) is up more than +21%, and AeroVironment (AVAV) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) are up more than +7%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are higher as the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose more than +2% to a new record high. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up more than +3%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +1%.
Levy Strauss & Co (LEVI) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.45 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.37 billion, and raising guidance on its full-year net revenue forecast to up +1% to +2% from a previous forecast of down -1% to -2%.
Performance Food Group (PFGC) is up more than +4% on reports that the company has attracted takeover interest from US Foods Holding Corp.
Medtronic Plc (MDT) is up more than +1% after the US government proposed national coverage for renal denervation to treat patients with uncontrolled hypertension, which several analysts deemed as positive for the company's medical products.
Visteon Corp (VC) is up more than +1% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $120.
Earnings Reports (7/11/2025)
Hingham Institution For Saving (HIFS), Lifezone Metals Ltd (LZM), PACS Group Inc (PACS), Smith-Midland Corp (SMID), Unity Bancorp Inc (UNTY).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Crypto exchanges rushed to list Trump's coin - leaving many losers and some big winners
By Hannah Lang, Elizabeth Howcroft, Michelle Conlin and Medha Singh NEW YORK (Reuters) -Crypto exchange Coinbase assures users on its website that it puts any new digital coin through "rigorous" vetting before allowing it to trade. It's an at-times lengthy process meant to protect customers by examining the people connected to the project and the risk of market manipulation or other scams. With President Donald Trump's crypto token, $TRUMP, Coinbase made up its mind in just one day. The $TRUMP token, which launched three days before his inauguration in January, is a meme coin. Based on cultural fads or celebrities, these coins have no intrinsic value and – past experience has shown – are prone to large price swings that can leave investors with losses. A Reuters analysis of crypto market data and industry announcements found that, compared to other recent large meme coins, the biggest crypto exchanges took Trump's to market with unusual speed, despite stating they vet risky coins thoroughly to protect small investors. Some also approved the listing in spite of the high share of coins concentrated in the hands of Trump and his partners, which would normally represent a red flag because of the risk that dumping of tokens by insiders could collapse the price and hurt other investors, some executives said. After reaching an all-time high of $75.35 on April 19, just two days after its launch, $TRUMP crashed to the $7 range by early April, leaving many holders nursing losses. It was trading around $9.55 Thursday. "When the president of the United States launches a meme coin, I thought I might as well put some money inside," said Carl 'Moon' Runefelt, a Dubai-based crypto investor who runs a bitcoin trading channel on YouTube called the "Moon Show." Runefelt said he bought $300,000 worth of the meme coin in tranches at between $50 and $60: "It's probably one of my worst trades, unfortunately." The Reuters analysis showed that eight of the 10 largest crypto exchanges by market share listed the coin within 48 hours of its release. The ninth, Coinbase, added $TRUMP to its listings roadmap on January 18 – indicating it had decided to accept it - and listed the coin three days later. The tenth, Upbit, listed $TRUMP on February 13. That was much faster than they've done on average with the biggest meme coins. Reuters examined how long it took the same 10 exchanges - Binance, Bitget, MEXC, OKX, Coinbase, Bybit, Upbit, and HTX - to list the four other largest meme coins launched since 2022. These, measured by market cap on May 29, are Pepe, Bonk, Fartcoin and dogwifhat. All 10 exchanges listed Pepe and Bonk. Nine listed dogwifhat, and seven listed Fartcoin. On average, the 10 exchanges took 129 days to list those coins. For $TRUMP, they took an average of four. Asked for comment about why they listed $TRUMP so quickly, Bitget, MEXC, OKX, Coinbase and Upbit all said they had not cut any corners with their vetting process. The other five exchanges did not respond to Reuters' questions. Three – Bitget, Coinbase, MEXC – said they moved fast to respond to overwhelming demand for the $TRUMP coin. "The crypto space was buzzing with the hype and, as any other token with a growing craze, it was imperative to add TRUMP," Gracy Chen, Bitget's CEO, said in a statement. Chen said the fact that Trump himself announced the coin on his social media accounts "should kind of solve the compliance issue," citing the fact that "he's the president of the United States." 'NO CONFLICTS OF INTEREST' Reuters found no suggestion that Trump or anyone related to his businesses exerted pressure on the exchanges. In response to a request for comment, a White House press official told Reuters the president's assets had been placed in a family trust: "There are no conflicts of interest because the president isn't managing the assets. Any insinuation that there is a conflict of interest is irresponsible." The official referred specific questions about the meme coin to the Trump Organization, which did not respond to Reuters. Coinbase said the $TRUMP token got no special exceptions and the exchange followed its normal process when listing the coin. Paul Grewal, Coinbase's chief legal officer, said many people had to work over the weekend to get the listing done quickly, but no steps were skipped. "Given the information that was shared publicly, we were confident that users could engage with the token positively and safely," Grewal told Reuters. Coinbase listed $TRUMP as an "experimental" token to indicate it comes with "certain risks, including price swings," according to the company's website. The vetting of coins often focuses on how well-known the issuer is, how likely they are to remain in the public eye and how much they engage with the online community to sustain interest in the coin, metrics that $TRUMP would score highly on, according to Santa Clara University finance professor Seoyoung Kim, who specializes in crypto analytics. She cautioned that focusing on vetting speed alone could provide an incomplete picture of investor protection. A more holistic analysis, Kim said, would also involve factors such as the average market cap at which a coin is listed, for how long it has sustained that level before its listing, and its daily trading volumes. With $TRUMP listed so soon after launch, there was little such data for exchanges to parse. $TRUMP's market cap has since fallen to around $1.9 billion, down sharply from its peak above $15 billion on January 19. But that still ranks it amongst the largest meme coins launched since 2022. Reuters ran its listing-speed analysis past five academics with crypto expertise, including Kim, who all said its methodology was sound. David Krause, Emeritus Professor of Finance at Marquette University, who has studied Trump's crypto ventures, said the quickness of the $TRUMP listing "suggests either a dramatic acceleration of due diligence or corners being cut." "Either scenario has significant implications for investor protection and market integrity," he said. YOU DON'T SAY NO TO THE PRESIDENT The president's rush of business ventures in a lightly-regulated sector that his government is responsible for overseeing has drawn criticism from Democrats, consumer advocacy groups and former financial enforcement officials. "You don't say no to hosting the president's new meme coin," said Corey Frayer, a former senior crypto advisor at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Frayer is now director of a non-profit advocacy group, the Consumer Federation of America. "The president controls who oversees your business and how they enforce the law." Under former President Joe Biden, the SEC maintained that most crypto tokens, including meme coins, should be regulated as securities, making exchanges cautious about listing them. That began to change, quickly, after Trump was elected last November. The Republican has styled himself as the "crypto president," pledging to overhaul regulation of the sector. Following Trump's election, Coinbase – the largest publicly traded crypto exchange in the United States – and several of its rivals began listing more meme coins. In Trump's second term, the SEC has paused or withdrawn high-profile enforcement actions against crypto operators, including a major investor in a Trump family crypto project, and issued a staff statement concluding that meme coins do not constitute securities. An SEC spokesperson declined to comment on the agency's crypto policy and Trump's coin. Trump's family has launched multiple crypto ventures, raking in hundreds of millions of dollars. The $TRUMP token quickly earned an estimated $320 million in fees, though it's not publicly known how that amount has been divided between a Trump-controlled entity and its partners. OVERLOOKED CONCERNS Exchanges have been major beneficiaries of Trump's embrace of the industry. $TRUMP has generated significant revenue for the 10 exchanges in Reuters' review: more than $172 million in trading fees, according to estimates based on standard fees compiled for the news agency by CoinDesk Data, a crypto industry data provider. Trade in the coin, meanwhile, has favored a small group of investors. At the top, 45 crypto wallets cleared about $1.2 billion in profits overall, while another 712,777 wallets have collectively lost $4.3 billion, according to trading data analyzed by crypto analysis firm Bubblemaps as of June 18. In the middle, more than half a million wallets made an average of $5,656 profit each. In listing $TRUMP, some exchanges proceeded despite a factor they'd previously labelled as a red flag: 80% of the coin's supply was held by the Trump family and its partners. Such a high concentration of ownership can allow the team behind a coin to sell large amounts of it at once, collapsing the price for retail investors. The terms of the $TRUMP coin specified that its total supply would be gradually unlocked over three years after initial release. On January 16, the day before $TRUMP was released, the New York State Department of Financial Services issued an alert to consumers about the risks of meme coins. Such coins, the notice said, are carried by platforms not licensed by the state and the supply of the digital tokens is often controlled by a small number of people. That opens the door to "pump-and-dump schemes," the regulator noted, in which public hype by their issuers leads to a jump in price – with big, early investors exiting and smaller retail buyers left holding the losses that follow. The NYDFS declined to comment beyond the guidance. Coinbase, which is subject to New York regulations, blocked state residents from accessing the token, but allowed U.S. customers elsewhere to trade. To list $TRUMP in New York, the exchange would have faced a long list of risk assessment and governance requirements. Some other exchanges acknowledged they looked past concerns about the concentration in a bid to serve customer demand. MEXC's chief operating officer, Tracy Jin, told Reuters that, because of the concentration of tokens, $TRUMP did not meet its usual standards for a full listing on its main board, but the exchange pushed ahead anyway due to strong demand. In a follow-up written statement, an MEXC spokesperson said that a "faster-than-usual" listing was possible because the coin had clear market momentum and it met "our listing standards early." Commenting on the Reuters listing-speed analysis, the spokesperson said market conditions and demand for political meme tokens had changed since 2022, "making direct comparisons less relevant." Bitget also had concerns about the 80% figure, CEO Chen told Reuters. "Eighty percent held by the team, even though there's a little bit of a lock-up period, is in my opinion very risky," said Chen. "Ultimately, user trading volume, demand … overrode the so-called risky factor here." Like some exchanges, Bitget, based in the Seychelles, does not have a business presence in the U.S. or serve clients who reside there, Chen said. "Globally," she added, "people are generally aware of the risks associated with trading meme coins." Upbit, which operates in South Korea, said it does not comment on specific coin listings but that it has "a rigorous and comprehensive evaluation process." Erald Ghoos, CEO for Europe of OKX, said the exchange's legal and compliance teams stayed up all night over different time zones to work on the listing. Seychelles-registered OKX says its diligence process requires "meticulous preparation." It decided to list $TRUMP within 26 hours. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Atlantic
25 minutes ago
- Atlantic
Flattery, Firmness, and Flourishes
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's April visit to the White House was, by all accounts, a success. She soothed President Donald Trump with dulcet talk of 'Western nationalism,' eased through a potentially awkward moment regarding Ukraine, and invited Trump to visit Rome—extracting a promise that he would come in the 'near future.' Yet despite the apparently seamless choreography, she and her team offered some after-action advice to fellow world leaders hoping for similarly controversy-free exchanges with Trump: Prepare for the unexpected. Specifically, she had been caught off guard when, before a supposedly private lunch in the Cabinet Room, journalists had been escorted in for seven minutes of questions; she found herself awkwardly positioned with her back to the cameras—much of the footage of Meloni captures the silky blond strands atop her head—and she was forced to either ignore the media in order to address Trump directly or twist herself to the left, away from the president, to try to speak with the reporters. Exactly a week later, when Jonas Gahr Støre, the prime minister of Norway, arrived at the White House, he was prepared. His team had watched videos of prior visits with world leaders, and strategized over various scenarios. Having seen Trump seem to bristle when Meloni was asked a question in her native Italian, they encouraged their own press corps to pose their queries exclusively in English. (The Norwegian journalists also seemed to have done their homework; young female reporters positioned themselves near the front, smiling to catch Trump's attention, and got in an early flurry of questions.) 'You have to—to use Trump's words—play the cards you have,' one European diplomat told us anonymously, like nearly every other diplomat or foreign official we spoke with, to avoid angering Trump or revealing their nation's strategies for managing the mercurial U.S. president. Anne Applebaum: The U.S. is switching sides In Trump's second term, foreign leaders now meticulously prepare for their phone calls and meetings with him, often war-gaming possible surprises and entanglements, and trading information and best practices with allies. Eight diplomats and officials from six countries, as well as other foreign-policy experts, all described to us an unofficial formula for ensuring fruitful interactions with Trump: an alchemic mix of flattery, firmness, and personal flourishes. Foreign leaders, especially those from fellow democracies, face an inherent tension in wanting to woo Trump while also advocating for their country's own interests and maintaining their standing back home. 'There is a sense that you want to be on the right side of history. You do want to be able to look at yourself in the mirror and reread your statements in the Oval Office a couple of years later and say, 'I feel good about what I said,'' a second European diplomat told us. This, of course, can prove complicated. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky learned this lesson rather publicly in a now-infamous Oval Office blowup on the last day of February, which got him booted from the White House so quickly that Trump's aides ate the lunch intended for him and his fellow Ukrainians. ('No deal and no meal,' Axios blared at the time.) And in May, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was meeting with Trump in the Oval when the U.S. president unexpectedly dimmed the lights and began playing a video that he said buttressed his unsupported claim that South Africa's white population is facing a 'genocide.' 'The leaders of friendly countries are turning keys in the lock desperately trying to find a way to prevent their meetings with President Trump from being disasters,' Kori Schake, the director of defense and foreign-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a contributing writer at The Atlantic, told us. 'The challenge for foreign leaders is that President Trump seems to only have two categories—supplicants and enemies.' But that hasn't stopped visiting officials and diplomats from trying. 'They ask knowledgeable Americans, 'Might this work? This is what we're thinking of trying. Do you think this is good enough?'' Schake told us. Even some of the preparations—walking through the day's expected events in advance of the actual visit—underscore the inherent unpredictability of this administration. 'Our entire walk-through with the White House was like, 'This is what it's going to be like, but we follow the lead of the president,'' the second European diplomat told us, laughing. Trump has long been eager to receive a Nobel Peace Prize—for any conflict, in any region. So it was not entirely surprising when the government of Pakistan nominated Trump for the prize last month for helping resolve tensions between Pakistan and India. Pakistan, after all, was simply following the dependable diplomatic crutch of flattery with Trump, hoping to improve its standing with the U.S. president by offering him the possibility of something he desperately covets. (His subsequent bombing of Iran's nuclear sites created understandable consternation among Pakistanis, but during an Oval Office meeting last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took up the cause, announcing that he had, too, nominated Trump for the Nobel Prize—this time for his work in the Middle East.) The same week that Pakistan put Trump up for the peace prize, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte engaged in some behind-the-scenes blandishments with Trump ahead of a NATO summit in the Netherlands—which became public when Trump posted on Truth Social the entirety of a text message Rutte had sent him. The missive praised Trump for his 'decisive action in Iran,' which Rutte called 'truly extraordinary,' before moving on to laud Trump for pressuring his NATO allies to spend more on defending their countries. 'You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening,' Rutte wrote. 'Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.' During the actual summit, Rutte went on to call Trump 'Daddy' as Trump likened Israel and Iran to fighting schoolchildren. 'Daddy has to sometimes use strong language,' the NATO chief said. Trump and his team were, predictably, delighted. They began selling 'Daddy' merch —an orange T-shirt with DADDY emblazoned just below Trump's notorious mug-shot scowl—and released a video mash-up of Trump at the summit set to Usher's 'Hey Daddy (Daddy's Home).' The light mockery that suffused their glee was not lost on Rutte's peers. Flattery, after all, must be coupled with firmness, several diplomats explained. Not to mention at least a smidgen of dignity. 'Who isn't a bit embarrassed on his behalf?' one diplomat said of Rutte. A fine line, several diplomats told us, separates routine diplomatic supplication from humiliating obsequiousness; Trump at times seems to respect people who stand up to him. A NATO ambassador told us that Rutte's acclamatory message to Trump wasn't widely workshopped in Brussels ahead of time and that the secretary general is trusted to manage his own relationship with the American president. 'The allies wanted an agile operator, and we've gotten that,' the ambassador said, noting that Trump frequently calls Rutte to consult him. The ambassador added that the more conciliatory approach world leaders are taking with Trump partly reflects standard diplomacy—and partly reflects the Republican standard-bearer's staying power. 'If you went through the first term saying, 'This is an aberration; we just have to get through it,' defiance was a reasonable bet to make,' the ambassador told us. 'Now we've seen him be reelected. At least half of Americans are aligned with his politics. It's not just that he's back. Clearly there's been a shift in America more deeply.' Marc Short, who served as Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff during Trump's first term, told us the flattery approach 'usually works.' He pointed to the strong relationship between Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron dating back to the early days of the Trump administration, when Macron—understanding the American president's love of pomp and circumstance and, frankly, just a damn good parade—invited him to Paris for Bastille Day. The two disagreed on a host of actual policy matters—the 2015 Iran deal and green energy among them—but 'that was one of the closest relationships of European leaders he had,' Short told us, in part because 'Macron was pretty good at those public communications of flattery.' 'It does seem that it's a little more exaggerated in the second go-round,' he told us. 'Maybe it's just the learning curve, but it seems like it's copied more now.' Still, not everyone is sold on the approach. After the White House paused some weapons transfers to Ukraine, Rutte faced fresh criticism for his fawning comments about Trump. Carlo Masala, an authority on the German military and a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, tagged the NATO secretary general on X and asked, in a mélange of English and German, 'Where ist your Daddy now?' Golf trophies. Monarchy merch. Love letters. As foreign leaders and their allies have engaged in gossipy group shares about how to prepare for a meeting with Trump—or, at the very least, for the love of God and all that is just in the world, prevent it from going totally off the rails—nearly every country has come up with its own similar, yet distinctly homegrown, approach. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who attended Furman University in South Carolina on a golf scholarship, played a round with Trump early in his return to power, much to the envy of fellow world leaders. (Lindsey Graham, South Carolina's senior senator and a reliable Trump sidekick, helped orchestrate the game, though it probably didn't hurt the transatlantic relationship that Stubb, playing on Trump's team at his Florida golf club's spring member-guest tournament, helped the U.S. president win the championship.) 'That's not an option for all the world leaders,' one European official told us, channeling the wistful desire for a links-blessed leader we heard from other diplomats. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who visited the White House in February, found success by bringing a personal letter from King Charles, inviting Trump for a second state visit—and adopting Trump's grandiose language in calling the possibility of a second such ceremony 'truly historic' and twice labeling it 'unprecedented.' (Trump is expected to visit this fall.) Here, the Brits engaged in a one-two titillation of Trump's diplomatic erogenous zones: his love of monarchies, particularly the British royals, and his passion for epistolary communication. In his first term, Trump waxed lyrical about his 'love letters' with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, and more recently, he relished recounting to Congress a letter Zelensky had sent him following their Oval Office spat. By the time Netanyahu announced his Nobel Peace Prize nomination last week, he was sufficiently savvy to present Trump with the letter he said he had sent to the Nobel Prize committee. 'The president respects good manners, and seems to value letters. He appreciates a slight formality,' a British diplomat told us. 'He clearly assigns a lot of value to, 'I have signed this, I have written this, I have touched this.'' (Indeed, Trump favors Sharpie-scrawled missives himself.) But Starmer's gambit also seemed to work because the offer he bore from King Charles was authentic. There still exists a 'special relationship' between the two countries, the working royals are diplomats by another name, and the British are experts at state visits and the accompanying ceremony. 'We will roll out the red carpet,' the British diplomat told us. 'Americans should expect a full royal display of the formal respect we afford our closest ally.' Or perhaps, as another European suggested to us, Washington's transatlantic partners have merely learned to act a bit like the Gulf states, which welcomed Trump with immense fanfare during his visit to the Middle East in May. The United Arab Emirates awarded Trump the Order of Zayed, the country's highest civil decoration. In Doha, Trump's motorcade included two red Tesla Cybertrucks—a nod to Trump's on-again, off-again billionaire best buddy, Elon Musk. The oil-rich nations also agreed to form business partnerships with Washington or to pump money into American companies. 'Trump is at home in the Gulf because he recognizes their style of family rule,' the diplomat told us. 'The Europeans gave up that method of governance about a century ago, but we know how to put on a show when we need to.' The Europeans have adopted similar tactics, not just spending lavishly with American defense contractors but also indulging Trump's interest in lineage, royalty, and, at times, even his romantic conquests. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, presented Trump with the birth certificate of his grandfather, who was born in 1869 in the German town of Kallstadt. A European diplomat from a different country made sure to mention their attractive friend, whom Trump had once dated. And Støre, the Norwegian prime minister, brought a photo of the country's current king as a young boy playing with Franklin D. Roosevelt's Scottish terrier, Fala—a nod, again, to Trump's penchant for monarchies. The Norwegians also brought a little gift for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—his ancestral tree, tracing him back six generations to Norway. All of the machinations are, of course, a far cry from the simpler diplomatic cajoling of the aughts, when then–British Prime Minister Gordon Brown gifted then-President Barack Obama a penholder made from wood pulled from an anti-slavery ship, and in return, Obama gifted him 25 DVDs of classic movies—all available on Netflix or at a local video store and, according to news reports at the time, unplayable on British technology. For now, diplomats and world leaders must be content with trading tips, sharing advice, and hoping not to become the centerpiece of a cautionary tableau in the Oval Office. The most common piece of wisdom we heard from the foreign officials with whom we spoke was: Prepare, prepare, prepare, especially for the unexpected. One diplomat told us they had learned that the 'real press conference' was in many cases not the official one featuring the two leaders, but the Oval Office meeting beforehand, with members of the media present. And another diplomat's advice inadvertently underscored the earlier 'play the cards you have' counsel of his peer: 'Our trade is balanced,' this person told us, wryly. 'That's an insider tip—keep an even trade balance.'
Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
2 Scenarios That Could Send Bitcoin to $150,000, or Crash It Back to $45,000
Bitcoin smashing past its all-time highs is likely, but not guaranteed. If a set of interlocking bearish catalysts occur, the coin's price will fall sharply. Trade policy and inflation are the two big things that could rain on the parade. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Trying to forecast Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) next big move is often easier than it seems, as long as you're willing to entertain multiple possibilities. Today, as always, the coin's balance depends on forces far bigger than crypto itself. At one end is a flood of global liquidity and ravenous demand from institutional investors. On the other is an inflationary flare-up that could wreck risk appetite and expose a fragile new crop of highly leveraged "Bitcoin treasury" companies. Investors need to understand both possibilities before deciding whether to buy more, trim, or simply hang on. Central banks have already started cutting the prime interest rate at which they lend to their national banks. In doing so, they reduce the cost of borrowing money, which has the effect of encouraging capital to chase riskier investments as safer yields from government bonds become lower. In this vein, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its second reduction of its interest rate in early June and signaled at least one more cut before year-end. The Federal Reserve in the U.S. has been flirting with rate cuts of its own and now faces pressure from the president to do so. Thus, further reductions to the interest rate are likely inevitable, though not necessarily happening this month or next. That incoming monetary swell is meeting a brand-new demand pipe in the form of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold Bitcoin. Those products soaked up another $1 billion of inflows in the week ending July 7, capping 12 straight weeks of inflows. Bitcoin used to rely on retail investor fervor to drive its price higher, but now it enjoys institutional autopilot bids every time brokers rebalance. Meanwhile, its supply growth is running on fumes, and it'll only get worse over time. Since the April 2024 halving, miners have been creating just 450 new coins per day, down from 900 before -- and more than they'll ever create in the future once the next halving kicks in sometime in early 2028. With 93% of all coins already mined, the float keeps shrinking even as ETF issuers, corporates, and long-term holders squirrel more away. Put liquidity, ETF flows, and hard-coded scarcity together, and the math gets euphoric for holders. From today's roughly $109,000 price, only a 37% climb is needed to clear $150,000. If interest rate cuts accelerate and fund inflows stay anywhere near current run rates, that threshold could arrive faster than most expect. There's a darker path here, and it behooves investors to understand how it could play out because it could be quite grim, at least temporarily. President Trump's July tariff schedule threatens levies as high as 25% to 70% on major trading partners, a move economists warn could reignite inflation just as headline prices were cooling. If inflation stays sticky as a result of these tariffs, the Federal Reserve may kill or put off its own rate-cut plans, bond yields could stretch back toward 5%, and the dollar would strengthen. Sharp moves in yields historically sap appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin, and a stronger dollar has historically not been favorable for the asset either. There's another pair of risks here. In theory, the coin is an inflation hedge, yet it has stumbled during previous yield spikes when liquidity dried up and margin calls snowballed. A fresh stress point has emerged as dozens of newly listed Bitcoin treasury companies that borrow in dollars to buy coins. Their convertible bond capital structures work only if Bitcoin keeps climbing. A sharp drop could force emergency sales and hands upside to creditors. Many of the 50-plus Bitcoin treasury newcomers of 2025 could thus implode in the next downturn. If a leveraged unwind coincides with tighter monetary policy, Bitcoin's price could cascade to the mid-$40,000s, a roughly 59% drop from today. Thankfully for holders, the balance of evidence still tilts firmly toward a very bullish picture for Bitcoin here. Central banks outside the U.S. are already easing, global liquidity is edging higher, and ETF demand shows no sign of fatigue. Buy this coin, and hold it for the foreseeable future and beyond. When you do, just remember that volatility is the toll you pay for Bitcoin's long-run scarcity story. If you can stomach a potential detour to $45,000, the road to $150,000 or beyond will look surprisingly well-paved. 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The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 2 Scenarios That Could Send Bitcoin to $150,000, or Crash It Back to $45,000 was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
