2025 Open Championship long shots, sleepers and prop picks: Jordan Spieth comeback?
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The betting favorite hasn't won the Open Championship since Jordan Spieth won in 2017. Three of the last six winners of the Open Championship have had odds equal to or longer than +6000 to win. The biggest long shot to hit the board during that time is Brian Harman, who won in 2023 as a +12500 longshot when Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy were the favorites going in.
The betting favorites are once again Scheffler (+500) and McIlroy (+700). While they are arguably the two best golfers on the planet at this moment, I think we can all agree that no one is so dominant that it's not worth looking at long shots who could hit the board. We are coming off a long-shot win at the U.S. Open with J.J. Spaun (+15000) beating out Adam Scott (+15000) and Sam Burns (+8000).
Picking the right long shot can give a profitable hedge bet during the tournament, like we did in this column with Sam Burns as a pre-U.S. Open long shot. That hedge to Spaun proved to be a nice bankroll builder heading into the later part of the season.
Jordan Spieth (+6000) is returning from an injury and may be a little sleep deprived after welcoming a new baby into the family this week. Even with those issues, picking up my eighth-ranked player for the week at +6000 is too good to pass up. Spieth has had a very good ball-striking year, even with his big tee-shot misses factored in. He has gained strokes on approach in four straight measured events, and he has gained strokes around the green in six straight measured events. Players only made it up and down from off the green at just over 50 percent here in 2019, while getting up and down from the sand only 37 percent of the time. Spieth can pick up an advantage on most of the field in both of those categories.
Cameron Young (+8000) has three straight made cuts and two top-eight finishes in his three tries at the Open Championship. He has been playing better lately with two top-four finishes in his last four tournaments. Young has yet to win on the PGA Tour despite contending on multiple occasions. He seems calmer at the end of majors than he does in the other tournaments, where he is usually favored to win against whomever he is battling.
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Aaron Rai (+9000) hits over 74 percent of his fairways while hitting almost 70 percent of his greens in regulation. He has been very good around the greens this year, picking up almost 1/3 of a stroke while his putter has continued to be hit-or-miss. I can see Rai pulling a Spaun this week, even if he doesn't quite have the firepower that Spaun possesses.
Cameron Smith (+10000) won the Open Championship at St Andrews as one of the darlings of the betting world. We saw his odds shrink during the run-up to that major, and it still felt good cashing in +2000 tickets if you missed the early boat. Smith has struggled in major championships since he moved to LIV Golf, but he has been playing better lately. He has gained strokes on approach, around the green and with his putter in each of his last two tournaments. He was among the leaders here in 2019 before struggling on Sunday, and could be a nice surprise at this price with his around-the-green and putting game.
Nick Taylor (+15000) hits over 65 percent of his fairways, and he hits the green in regulation at over 71 percent. He has missed one cut since the Houston Open with seven top-25 finishes. He won the Sony Open in January and has the iron game to win any golf tournament around the world.
Yes (-145): Emiliano Grillo pulled off this feat in 2019, and I have been getting crushed betting against hole-in-ones at every major championship. What better way to wake up on the East Coast than to the news of a hole-in-one hitting at the Open Championship while I was fast asleep.
Jon Rahm (+230) finished T11 here in 2019 and was in a solid position to make a run on Sunday before faltering with a Sunday 75 that sent him outside of the top 10. He has three top-seven finishes at the Open Championship since 2019, and he has gained strokes across the board in his last two Open Championships. He is going to win an Open Championship during his career, and this might be his best opportunity. He finished second at LIV Andalucia after a furious comeback on Sunday. He gained strokes across the board for the week and looked to be in complete control of his game.
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Viktor Hovland (+500) has one glaring hole in his game (around the green), but it won't keep me from believing in him this week. Hovland has been lights out with his approach game of late. He has gained over 6.3 strokes on approach in three straight tournaments, which even includes a withdrawal through injury at the Travelers. He has three top-13 finishes at the Open Championship in his career.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+650) was in the mix for a decent finish at Royal Portrush in 2019 before fading on Sunday to a T20. He has been in excellent form lately, and by contending at the Scottish Open on Saturday and Sunday, he helped me cash a nice hedge ticket on my New Jersey native fave, Chris Gotterup. Fitzpatrick has gained strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green in three straight tournaments.
Rory McIlroy (-135) famously missed the cut here in 2019 after being the pre-tournament story all week. He proved the old saying that you can't win a tournament on Thursday, but you can lose it. He comes into this week in a better frame of mind since he won the career grand slam at the 2025 Masters. He needed to reevaluate his goals and motivations, and it seems he has focused a lot of his efforts on the Open. He struggled with his driver on Thursday at the Scottish Open, but settled down the rest of the week and made up for it on the greens, where he has gained almost 14 strokes combined over his last two tournaments.
Xander Schauffele (+225) has been inconsistent for most of the season. He has struggled with his putter and has been inconsistent with his driver. He popped last week with his irons by gaining over nine strokes on approach. He is just a little bit off with his putter, but he doesn't look lost like Daniel Berger looks right now. Schauffele is the defending Open Champion, and he has never missed a cut at it. His ability to hit multiple shots off the tee and his excellent hands around the green mean he will be a factor more often than not.
Sepp Straka (+350): After missing the cut at St Andrews, Straka finished T2 and T22 the last two years at the Open Championship. He is having his best year on the PGA Tour and is coming off a week where he gained over 10 strokes combined around and on the greens at the Scottish Open.
Adam Scott (+250) has missed one cut at an Open Championship since finishing second in 2012. He has two top-15 finishes in the last three years. He is in excellent form coming in, gaining over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments.
Cameron Young (+300)
Nick Taylor (+375 — Shop this number)
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy: McIlroy (+138)
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Ludvig Åberg vs. Bryson DeChambeau: Åberg (+110)
DeChambeau has struggled at the Open Championships outside of St Andrews. The slow greens and the luck of the rolls and bounces seem to be too much for him to handle at times. Åberg has been inconsistent this season, but he has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in five straight tournaments. He has struggled mightily around the green, but bounced back at the Scottish Open last week.
Tommy Fleetwood vs. Shane Lowry: Fleetwood (-145)
Robert MacIntyre vs. Viktor Hovland: Hovland (-125)
Collin Morikawa vs. Matt Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick (+105)
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Jordan Spieth: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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