MLB Probable Starters Plus Underdog Winners, 6/17
"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe." Part of the struggle betting baseball on a daily basis comes down to handling the massive amount of subsequent data. Before you start opening 1,000 different Chrome tabs chasing data, get all your ducks in a row first.
Advertisement
Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.
Monday, June 17th, 2025
6:10pm EST — O/U 8.5
PHI Jesus Luzardo: -204; 67.1% Implied Probability
MIA Cal Quantrill: +171; 36.9% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6:40pm EST — O/U 8.5
PIT Bailey Falter: +171; 36.9% Implied Probability
DET Casey Mize: -204; 67.1% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6:45pm EST — O/U 9.5
COL Antonio Senzatela: +168; 37.3% Implied Probability
WSH Mike Soroka: -200; 66.7% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Advertisement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:05pm EST — O/U 9.5
LAA Kyle Hendricks: +212; 32.1% Implied Probability
NYY Will Warren: -256; 71.9% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:07pm EST — O/U 8.5
ARI Brandon Pfaadt: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability
TOR Chris Bassitt: -125; 55.6% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Advertisement
7:10pm EST — O/U 8.5
MIN David Festa: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability
CIN Andrew Abbott: -125; 55.6% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5
NYM David Peterson: +113; 46.9% Implied Probability
ATL Spencer Schwellenbach: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:35pm EST — O/U 9.5
BAL Dean Kremer: +104; 49.0% Implied Probability
TB Zack Littell: -122; 55.0% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Advertisement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7:40pm EST — O/U 8.5
STL Matthew Liberatore: -152; 60.3% Implied Probability
CHW Shane Smith: +129; 43.7% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
MIL Chad Patrick: +129; 43.7% Implied Probability
CHC Ben Brown: -159; 61.4% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Advertisement
8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
KC Seth Lugo: +114; 46.7% Implied Probability
TEX Jack Leiter: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9:40pm EST — O/U 7.5
BOS Walker Buehler: +151; 39.8% Implied Probability
SEA Bryan Woo: -179; 64.2% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9:45pm EST — O/U 7.5
CLE Slade Cecconi: +140; 41.7% Implied Probability
SF Robbie Ray: -167; 62.5% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Advertisement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10:05pm EST — O/U 10.5
HOU Jason Alexander: -143; 58.8% Implied Probability
ATH JP Sears: +121; 45.2% Implied Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10:10pm EST — O/U 9.5
SD Randy Vasquez: +182; 35.5% Implied Probability
LAD Matt Sauer: -217; 68.5% Implied Probability
LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:
My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are NYM, BAL, CHW, MIL, and KC. Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term.
Advertisement
Thanks so much for reading — it's been so exciting getting to interact with all my new friends here at Athlon Sports. If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come find out what all the hubbub's about regarding my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack page.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Fever's Bonus Money for Upset Win Over Lynx on Tuesday Draws Attention
Fever's Bonus Money for Upset Win Over Lynx on Tuesday Draws Attention originally appeared on Athlon Sports. The Fever played without Caitlin Clark on Tuesday against the Minnesota Lynx in the final of the Commissioner's Cup series, and managed to pull off a surprising upset in convincing fashion, 74-59. Advertisement In most sports, players tend to yawn their way through gimmicky in-season tournaments, but in the WNBA, it's a bit more of a big deal. That is because in a league where players typically earn less than $150,000 per season, the $30,000 in bonus money is significant. At The Athletic, the payout for the teams was laid out: "A $500,000 prize pool is awarded to the championship winners, and Coinbase commits an additional $120,000 in cryptocurrency to the prize pool. The respective pools are then split between players on the roster. Indiana has 11 players, and Minnesota has 12. "Players receive more money in bonuses for winning the Commissioner's Cup than for winning the WNBA championship. According to the league's CBA, WNBA champions receive $11,356 bonuses per player, and runners-up receive $5,678 per player." Indiana Fever guard Sophie Cunningham (8) drives to the basket against the Minnesota Lynx in the first half during the Commissioner's Cup final at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images That is, naturally, an oddity--the Fever won more money on Tuesday than they would for winning a title. Additionally, each team plays for a charity. On Tuesday, the league laid out on Twitter/X just how those payouts go for the participants in the Commissioner's Cup final. Advertisement "Here's what the Fever and Lynx are playing for tonight! Fever - Peace Learning Center Lynx - ACLU Minnesota The winner of the Commissioner's Cup Championship presented by @Coinbase will take home an additional $10k for their charity, while the team that comes in 2nd place will take home and additional $5k for theirs." The Fever were led by Natasha Howard, with 16 points and 12 rebounds. She was awarded the game's MVP trophy as she helped wear down a stout Minnesota interior defense, aided by forward Aliyah Boston, who had 12 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. The Fever are now 9-8, and the Lynx drop to 14-3. Advertisement Related: Fever Urged to Make 'Hugely Beneficial' Change for Caitlin Clark After Injury This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 2, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Messages Are Pouring in After Jayson Tatum's 6-Word Post on Friday
Messages Are Pouring in After Jayson Tatum's 6-Word Post on Friday originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Everything changed for the Boston Celtics when Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles against the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals this past season. They went from a perennial championship contender to a team in limbo, and they didn't waste time making changes after the season. Advertisement Boston traded Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis before Wednesday's draft, two crucial contributors to its 2024 title-winning team. The moves got the organization under the second apron, which increases its flexibility with free agency and trades. Meanwhile, Tatum is rehabbing his Achilles injury and will likely miss the entirety of next season. The six-time All-Star posted a message about it on Friday night via social media. Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) and Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30).© Kyle Terada-Imagn Images "Day 45… this is some [expletive]," he said. Celtics fans supported their star in the replies. "We can't wait till you back champ," one said. "Luv u big bro keep going," another one said. Advertisement "We're all here for you king," another said. "You got this, Celtics fans are behind you, we believe in you and you will get through this," another said. "Love you JT!" "The comeback is gonna be a movie. Keep going JT," another said. "Praying for you GOAT," another said. Tatum never had a serious injury in his NBA career before this one. The 27-year-old averaged 26.8 points on 45.2 percent shooting (34.3 percent 3 PT) with 8.7 rebounds and six assists over 36.4 minutes this past season. He also averaged 28.1 points on 42.3 percent shooting (37.2 percent 3 PT) with 11.5 rebounds and 5.4 assists over 40.3 minutes in the playoffs. Advertisement Related: Celtics' Brad Stevens Makes Jaylen Brown Statement After NBA Draft Related: New Jaylen Brown, Derrick White Trade Report Hours Before NBA Draft This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 28, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers cruise past the White Sox
For the Chicago White Sox, it was not a question of if Shane Smith was the best pitcher they had to offer against the Dodgers — he was very likely their best. Among White Sox pitchers with 10 or more starts, the rookie right-hander had the best strikeout-per-nine inning rate (8.2), as well as the lowest earned-run average (3.38) entering the game. Smith had been respectably good on a young White Sox roster that has been anything but. Advertisement Yet, Smith couldn't make up the gulf in quality between the best-in-the-National-League Dodgers (54-32) and the worst-in-the-American-League White Sox (28-57). The Dodgers would make sure of that in quick fashion. A four-run, two-out rally in the first inning separated the teams quickly in a 6-1 victory to begin the six-game homestand. Whereas Smith was chased from the game in the fifth inning, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was excellent again. A week after being pulled after five innings in Denver — because of a lengthy rain delay — manager Dave Roberts called on the sure-to-be All-Star to pitch with an extended leash. White Sox first baseman Miguel Vargas — the former Dodgers top prospect who the franchise parted ways with at the 2024 trade deadline in exchange for Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman — represented the heart of the Chicago lineup, batting cleanup with his .229 batting average and 10 home runs entering the game. Vargas, who failed to bring the power in an 0-for-4 effort, received a 2024 World Series ring from Roberts and general manager Brandon Gomes during pregame batting practice. Advertisement Of more promising White Sox prospects, rookie Chase Meidroth faced a potential NL Cy Young award candidate. In the third inning, Yamamoto struck out Meidroth with a three-pitch combo: 95-mph fastball on the edge of the strike zone, a 92-mph cutter on the outside corner and a splitter down and in, forcing a swing more than a foot above where the pitch landed. Read more: Clayton Kershaw and 3,000 strikeouts: A partnership built on a consistent three-pitch mix Yamamoto gave up one run, a two-out RBI double to Lenyn Sosa in the fourth inning, but twirled his way through an otherwise overmatched White Sox lineup, retiring the final 10 batters he faced. The right-hander tossed seven innings, gave up one run and three hits, while striking out eight, walking one and bringing his earned-run average down to 2.51. Across his last 12 innings, Yamamoto has given up just four hits. Advertisement Andy Pages struck two run-scoring hits — a double and a single — en route to a two-for-four day at the plate. The 24-year-old Cuban slugger sits in sixth in the most recent NL All-Star outfielder voting, and ended Tuesday with a .294 batting average and 57 RBIs, the latter statistic being the best on the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani, who was not a part of the Dodgers' hit parade that led to their first five runs across three innings, joined the run-scoring effort in the fourth with a no-doubt solo home run — 408 feet and 116.3 mph, halfway up the right-field pavilion — off of Smith, his 30th this season. Etc. Kopech returned to the 15-day injured list — of which he recently returned from on June 7 — with right-knee inflammation. He said before Tuesday's game that he wasn't sure what caused the injury, and would characterize the ailment as discomfort rather than pain. Advertisement Roberts said there isn't a timeline for Kopech's return, but said it was a short-term issue. The 29-year-old, who received a cortisone shot in his knee, had yet to give up a run in eight scoreless appearances out of the bullpen. Read more: More than the glasses: How a lightbulb moment made Max Muncy a 'complete hitter' again In pitchers on their way back from injuries, Tyler Glasnow (right shoulder inflammation) will throw his third rehabilitation with triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday. The expectation is that Glasnow will pitch five innings/75 pitches, Roberts said. The Dodgers manager added that Blake Snell (left shoulder inflammation) and Blake Treinen (right forearm sprain) will throw to live hitters Wednesday, the next step in their recovery progression. Advertisement 'Hopefully we're starting to turn the corner a little bit,' Roberts said. Next Ohtani start Ohtani will next start on the mound Saturday against the Houston Astros — a 4:05 p.m. start — and southpaw Justin Wrobleski will again piggyback off the two-way star's opening effort. Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
