The tragedy of Sir Keir? Even he doesn't believe what he's saying

Telegraph

18-05-2025

Keir Starmer loves the European Union. He thinks we should be members of the largest political alliance in the world. His internationalist instincts and desire for a world run by a grand global rule book – overseen by judges and argued about by lawyers – fit with the EU's approach. When the Commission talks of human rights and equality, Starmer feels at home.
The PM will say none of these things publicly because he knows not enough voters agree – and he is not the man to persuade them. In 2016, 52 per cent voted to leave the EU and 'take back control', particularly of the UK's borders. If ending free movement was the major reason for voting Leave then it is little wonder many are disappointed. In 2022 net migration flirted with 1 million, a record, because of the incompetence of Boris Johnson.
Last week, Starmer said lots of things about controlling immigration he does not instinctively agree with. The PM is foreigner-friendly deep in his bones and sees free movement as a triumph of liberal economics. He wore the 'country of strangers' narrative awkwardly, like a young child trying on his father's suit.
This week Starmer will try and repeat the trick, saying lots of things about Europe he does not instinctively agree with. In a parallel universe where the PM is free to speak his mind, Starmer would argue passionately that the UK should rejoin the EU, that the country's future is in alliance with Brussels and that the economy would flourish in a single market and customs union. If there is one area where the PM truly wants to go 'further and faster' it is towards the continent.
Any speech explaining his position would be sincere – just as it was in 2019 when he argued for a second referendum, the PM demanding that the public be allowed to vote again on 'whether they wouldn't rather stay in the EU'. He was enthusiastically backed by David Lammy, the foreign secretary.
Instead, this week voters will again be treated to the crab-like, stilted Prime Minister. He will argue, with as straight a face as he can muster, that red lines he never wanted on not joining the single market, the customs union or free movement remain in place. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, will stand alongside Starmer at the first post-Referendum EU summit in London and sense a man so worried about his ability to cling on in Number 10 that he no longer says what he thinks.
As on immigration, Starmer is grasping for a middle ground on Europe even he is not sure exists. On defence and security, the UK will be allowed limited access to the EU's new rearmament fund worth £150 billion. Fishing rights will be traded. The UK will align on food standards, a move likely to mean oversight from the European courts. A youth mobility scheme will be agreed, meaning that young people under 30 can travel here from the EU with a visa. UK visitors to the continent will be able to use passport e-gates and not queue alongside far-flung foreign nations when going on holiday to Benidorm.
Critics smell a rat. Is the PM trying to re-engineer the UK back into the EU via a series of bilateral deals that make us rule-takers? Kemi Badenoch has already said that Starmer is entering the negotiations 'with a white flag at the ready'. Nigel Farage, riding high in the polls, greets every contorted argument with glee.
The PM should study his political history. Voters prefer principle over cold-eyed political calculation. In 1980, Margaret Thatcher was being assailed on all sides to ditch her anti-inflationary policies aimed at re-building a crisis-riven nation. Her response was to look her opponents in the eye and say 'You turn if you want to, the lady's not for turning.' She won the next two general elections.
Tony Blair, despite one million people marching on Parliament demanding 'Stop the War', maintained his alliance with the United States and his resolve to remove the dictator, Saddam Hussein. Two years later, he won his third general election.
Agree or disagree with the policies, Thatcher and Blair knew where they stood and were ready to make the argument for what they believed in. The more Starmer twists and turns – six years ago he was already being described by Labour MPs as a 'windsock' – the more the public see him for what he is, a man lacking a consistent political vision he is willing to fight for.
Number 10 hoped for a very different first half of the year, Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, orchestrating a fight back strategy based around backing for Ukraine, a reset on immigration and reform of the NHS. If the economy showed some signs of life – and it is – then so much the better.
Voters are not listening. Last week, Starmer's poll ratings hit new lows, his net favourability rating dropping 12 percentage points in a month to -46 per cent, its lowest ever. Most worryingly for his allies, the sharpest drop was amongst Labour voters, where it fell 17 percentage points.
Downing Street is becoming increasingly desperate. There is now talk of reversing the wildly unpopular winter fuel allowance policy and rethinking cuts in disability benefits.
The PM's problems go far deeper than the jettisoning of a few badly thought-through policies. Starmer lacks an authentic voice and an authentic set of proposals that he is not happy to drop in the hope of more favourable headlines. 'People always used to say to me: listen to the people,' Blair said in 2011. 'That was a fine idea, but unfortunately the people were all saying different things.' You cannot rule by focus group alone.
Starmer wants to be in the EU, but cannot say so. He is pro-immigration but tells voters he wants to clamp down on numbers coming to the UK. He is on the left of Labour – in 2019 he believed Jeremy Corbyn should be in Downing Street – but is talking about welfare cuts that have left his allies baffled. He is both pro and anti regulation, adding state-run quangoes by the yard whilst at the same time insisting he is for the 'builders not the blockers'. Dominic Cummings said that Johnson had the mind of an errant shopping trolley. The same could be said of the present incumbent of Number 10.
Voters are well within their rights to ask 'could the real Keir Starmer please stand up?'. The only problem is, even he no longer knows who that is.