Alarming Advance of Jihadist Groups in Sahel Raises Regional Security Concerns
According to the analysis by journalist Jean-Marc Gonin, national armies in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are increasingly losing control over vast territories, while civilian populations continue to bear the brunt of violence in a conflict they are neither responsible for nor equipped to escape.
Three years after France ended its counterterrorism Operation Barkhane under mounting pressure from military juntas that seized power in the region, jihadist insurgencies led by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have surged.
These militant groups are not only challenging the armed forces of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger but are also conducting cross-border raids into neighbouring states such as Benin, posing a growing threat to West African stability.
Coordinated Raids and Military Setbacks
In the past three months, JNIM launched a wave of attacks in western Mali, including a major offensive near the borders with Senegal and Mauritania. The simultaneous raids targeted seven towns, including the strategic urban centres of Kayes and Nioro, underscoring the group's growing operational capabilities.
JNIM's leader, Tuareg commander Iyad Ag Ghaly, is reportedly pursuing control of critical urban hubs and key transportation corridors essential for Mali's access to imported supplies from coastal nations.
Although Malian authorities later claimed to have recaptured Kayes, the group succeeded in seizing significant military equipment in the process. Witnesses in the area reported the use of armoured vehicles and, in recent months, the possible deployment of drones by militants—raising alarm over the group's evolving arsenal.
Bakary Sambe, regional director of the Timbuktu Institute, described the July 1 attacks as 'well-planned strikes' aimed at disrupting military communication lines and logistics. 'This isolation of Bamako weakens the state's response and gives militants the freedom to launch rapid attacks and withdraw with minimal resistance,' he said.
Sahel States Struggle to Push Back
Since the withdrawal of French troops in 2022 and the United Nations peacekeeping force in 2023, JNIM has filled the security vacuum, growing in both presence and influence. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have since formed the Sahel States Alliance (AES) to confront the threat, but despite some localised military gains, the coalition continues to suffer heavy losses.
The July 1 attacks underscored the challenges faced by national forces. While some incursions were repelled, several operations resulted in significant casualties among government troops.
Observers say the reliance on Russian military support—particularly through the controversial Wagner Group—has further complicated the situation. Wagner operatives, accused of human rights abuses, have exacerbated existing grievances, fueling local anger and inadvertently aiding jihadist recruitment.
Deepening Social Divisions
The ongoing violence has heightened tensions between herder and farming communities, particularly among the Fulani people, who are spread across the Sahel. Jihadist groups, especially JNIM, have exploited these fault lines to gain loyalty, offering a form of economic stability and protection in exchange for allegiance.
Le Figaro noted that jihadists have, over the past three years, strategically positioned themselves as defenders of the Fulani, in contrast to national governments and allied militias accused of targeting the group.
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