Aluminum Executives Balk at Trump's Latest 50% Tariff Move
'We're concerned about the potential for demand destruction' from the levy especially at the present level, said Derek Prichett, senior vice president of global metals at Novelis Inc., at Harbor Aluminum's 17th summit in Chicago.
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Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Main Street Capital Corporation on Investing Lawyer's Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on MAIN. Main Street Capital Corporation's share was trading at $63.99 as of August 1st. MAIN's trailing and forward P/E were 10.85 and 15.60 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. A close-up of a hand signing a contract, symbolizing deals being made in private equity and buyouts. Main Street Capital (MAIN) is a leading Business Development Company (BDC) known for its reliable monthly dividend payments, offering investors steady income with a current yield of approximately 7.4%. This income-focused strategy appeals to investors seeking predictable cash flow. The company's strength lies in its diversified portfolio of middle-market investments and a disciplined capital allocation approach, which supports the sustainability and growth of its dividends over time. MAIN has an impressive track record of consistency, having never missed a dividend, and continues to prioritize high-quality, cash-generating businesses to enhance shareholder returns. The stock has demonstrated a stable trading pattern over recent years, moving within established trend lines, indicating resilience and investor confidence. While short-term price fluctuations may occur, MAIN is expected to maintain its upward momentum over the long term. Even in a scenario where the price corrects toward the $52–$55 range, technical indicators suggest a likely continuation of its positive trajectory thereafter. There are no strong signals of a prolonged downtrend, reinforcing the view of MAIN as a stable income-generating investment. In addition to its attractive yield, MAIN's unique feature of monthly dividends sets it apart from many peers, making it a compelling choice for investors seeking both stability and regular income. With its proven business model, focus on quality assets, and commitment to delivering shareholder value, MAIN offers a strong combination of income and potential price appreciation, making it a top pick for long-term, income-oriented portfolios. Previously, we covered a on McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) by Investing Lawyer in February 2025, which highlighted its dividend growth consistency, defensive positioning, and key support levels near $70. The company's stock price has depreciated by approximately 13.91% since our coverage, as technical weakness persisted. The thesis still stands given MKC's strong fundamentals. Investing Lawyer shares a similar view on Main Street Capital but emphasizes its higher yield and monthly dividends. Main Street Capital Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 14 hedge fund portfolios held MAIN at the end of the first quarter which was 9 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of MAIN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None.
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AECOM (NYSE:ACM) Misses Q2 Sales Targets
Infrastructure consulting service company AECOM (NYSE:ACM) fell short of the market's revenue expectations in Q2 CY2025, with sales flat year on year at $4.18 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.34 per share was 6.2% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy AECOM? Find out in our full research report. AECOM (ACM) Q2 CY2025 Highlights: Revenue: $4.18 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.32 billion (flat year on year, 3.3% miss) Adjusted EPS: $1.34 vs analyst estimates of $1.26 (6.2% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $313 million vs analyst estimates of $307.8 million (7.5% margin, 1.7% beat) Management raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $5.25 at the midpoint, a 1.9% increase EBITDA guidance for the full year is $1.2 billion at the midpoint, in line with analyst expectations Operating Margin: 7%, up from 5.5% in the same quarter last year Free Cash Flow Margin: 6.3%, similar to the same quarter last year Backlog: $24.59 billion at quarter end, up 5.2% year on year Market Capitalization: $14.66 billion 'The strength of our third quarter results, which included outperformance on all key financial metrics, demonstrated the benefits of our competitive edge platform and the high returns we earn on our growth investments,' said Troy Rudd, AECOM's chairman and chief executive officer. Company Overview Founded in 1990 when a group of engineers from five companies decided to merge, AECOM (NYSE:ACM) provides various infrastructure consulting services. Revenue Growth A company's long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. Unfortunately, AECOM's 4% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was sluggish. This was below our standard for the industrials sector and is a rough starting point for our analysis. We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within industrials, a half-decade historical view may miss cycles, industry trends, or a company capitalizing on catalysts such as a new contract win or a successful product line. AECOM's annualized revenue growth of 7.3% over the last two years is above its five-year trend, but we were still disappointed by the results. AECOM also reports its backlog, or the value of its outstanding orders that have not yet been executed or delivered. AECOM's backlog reached $24.59 billion in the latest quarter and averaged 2% year-on-year declines over the last two years. Because this number is lower than its revenue growth, we can see the company hasn't secured enough new orders to maintain its growth rate in the future. This quarter, AECOM's $4.18 billion of revenue was flat year on year, falling short of Wall Street's estimates. Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 7.3% over the next 12 months, similar to its two-year rate. This projection doesn't excite us and implies its newer products and services will not accelerate its top-line performance yet. Today's young investors likely haven't read the timeless lessons in Gorilla Game: Picking Winners In High Technology because it was written more than 20 years ago when Microsoft and Apple were first establishing their supremacy. But if we apply the same principles, then enterprise software stocks leveraging their own generative AI capabilities may well be the Gorillas of the future. So, in that spirit, we are excited to present our Special Free Report on a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next. Operating Margin AECOM was profitable over the last five years but held back by its large cost base. Its average operating margin of 4.5% was weak for an industrials business. This result isn't too surprising given its low gross margin as a starting point. On the plus side, AECOM's operating margin rose by 2.5 percentage points over the last five years, as its sales growth gave it operating leverage. This quarter, AECOM generated an operating margin profit margin of 7%, up 1.6 percentage points year on year. The increase was encouraging, and because its operating margin rose more than its gross margin, we can infer it was more efficient with expenses such as marketing, R&D, and administrative overhead. Earnings Per Share Revenue trends explain a company's historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions. AECOM's EPS grew at a spectacular 17.1% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, higher than its 4% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became more profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded. We can take a deeper look into AECOM's earnings to better understand the drivers of its performance. As we mentioned earlier, AECOM's operating margin expanded by 2.5 percentage points over the last five years. On top of that, its share count shrank by 17.8%. These are positive signs for shareholders because improving profitability and share buybacks turbocharge EPS growth relative to revenue growth. Like with revenue, we analyze EPS over a shorter period to see if we are missing a change in the business. For AECOM, its two-year annual EPS growth of 19.7% was higher than its five-year trend. We love it when earnings growth accelerates, especially when it accelerates off an already high base. In Q2, AECOM reported adjusted EPS at $1.34, up from $1.16 in the same quarter last year. This print beat analysts' estimates by 6.2%. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects AECOM's full-year EPS of $5.17 to grow 4.1%. Key Takeaways from AECOM's Q2 Results It was good to see AECOM provide full-year EBITDA guidance that slightly beat analysts' expectations. We were also happy its EPS outperformed Wall Street's estimates. On the other hand, its revenue missed. Overall, this quarter was mixed. The stock traded up 1.7% to $114 immediately after reporting. So do we think AECOM is an attractive buy at the current price? If you're making that decision, you should consider the bigger picture of valuation, business qualities, as well as the latest earnings. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it's free. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Trading Day: Stocks bounce back, bonds more cautious
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Investors shrugged off last week's worries over the U.S. economy to drive a powerful, tech-led rebound across global stocks on Monday, although U.S. Treasuries prices held onto Friday's gains, suggesting a fair degree of caution persists. More on all that below. In my column today I look at why rather than firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, President Donald Trump could have claimed that the weak jobs data and dramatic market reaction vindicated his stance that the Fed should cut rates. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Brexit's parallels with Trump tariffs tell a tale: MikeDolan 2. Never mind Wall Street records, investors rethink USmarket supremacy 3. Latest Trump tariffs unlikely to budge, top negotiatorsays 4. BOJ gears up to hike rates again but leaves free hand ontiming 5. BP makes its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 yearsoffshore Brazil Today's Key Market Moves * FX: Most emerging currencies rise against a soft LatAm FX index has biggest 2-day rise in 2 months. * STOCKS: Main Asian, European, U.S. global indices allrise strongly. Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 lead U.S. rally, bothup 2%. * SHARES/SECTORS: S&P 500 communications index +2.6% andtech index +2.2%. Nvidia shares +3.6%, Tesla +2.2%. * BONDS: Treasuries prices rise, pushing 2-year yield to a3-month low of 3.66%. Yields down 2 bps across the curve. * COMMODITIES: Oil falls around 1.5% to its lowest in aweek after OPEC+ agrees to another large output increase. Stocks bounce back, bonds more cautious After getting slammed on Friday by unexpectedly poor U.S. employment figures, U.S. and world stocks rebounded on Monday. Whether this is a short-term technical recovery or the resumption of the bull run of recent months remains to be seen. In isolation, the positive start to the week has been pretty impressive. Wall Street more than recovered the ground it lost on Friday, led by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, as investors bet that both tech and small caps would be among the big winners in a lower interest rate world. The global recovery was probably overdue. The MSCI All Country index's rise on Monday snapped a six-session losing streak, its worst run in nearly two years. While Friday's slump in U.S. bond yields reflected deepening growth fears and contributed to the huge equity selloff, the further drift lower in yields on Monday supported equity sentiment. The feel good factor could prove fleeting though. The U.S.-centric issues that drove last week's selloff - growth fears, tariff concerns and unusually high levels of policy uncertainty - haven't disappeared. Trump said on Monday he will substantially raise tariffs on goods from India over its Russian oil purchases, while Switzerland says it is ready to make a "more attractive offer" to Washington to avert the steep 39% tariffs it is facing. Investors are increasingly nervous about political interference in independent U.S. institutions after Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer for allegedly rigging the jobs data. This comes amid Trump's verbal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, and as he prepares to announce his nomination to replace Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who surprisingly resigned on Friday. Looking ahead to Tuesday, the U.S. earnings calendar heats up again and purchasing managers index data will give an insight into how the service sectors in many of the world's major economies fared in July. Trump scores major own goal with labor official firing U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to fire a top labor official following weak jobs data obviously sends ominous signals about political interference in independent institutions, but it is also a major strategic own goal. Trump has spent six months attacking the Federal Reserve, and Chair Jerome Powell in particular, for not cutting interest rates. The barbs culminated in Trump branding Powell a "stubborn MORON" in a social media post on Friday before the July jobs report was released. The numbers, especially the net downward revision of 258,000 for May and June payrolls growth, were much weaker than expected. In fact, this was "the largest two-month revision since 1968 outside of NBER-defined recessions (assuming the economy is not in recession now)," according to Goldman Sachs. This sparked a dramatic reaction in financial markets. Fed rate cut expectations soared, the two-year Treasury yield had its steepest fall in a year, and the dollar tumbled. A quarter-point rate cut next month and another by December were suddenly nailed-on certainties, according to rate futures market pricing. This was a huge U-turn from only 48 hours before, when Powell's hawkish steer in his post-FOMC meeting press conference raised the prospect of no easing at all this year. Trump's constant lambasting of "Too Late" Powell suddenly appeared to have a bit more substance behind it. The Fed chair's rate cut caution centers on the labor market, which now appears nowhere near as "solid" as he thought. Trump could have responded by saying: "I was right, and Powell was wrong." Instead, on Friday afternoon he said he was firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, for faking the jobs numbers. Trump provided no evidence of data manipulation. So rather than point out that markets were finally coming around to his way of thinking on the need for lower interest rates, Trump has united economists, analysts and investors in condemnation of what they say is brazen political interference typically associated with underdeveloped and unstable nations rather than the self-proclaimed 'leader of the free world.' "A dark day in, and for, the U.S.," economist Phil Suttle wrote on Friday. "This is the sort of thing only the worst populists do in the worst emerging economies and, to use the style of President Trump, IT NEVER ENDS WELL." UNCERTAINTY PREMIUM It's important to note that major – even historic – revisions to jobs growth figures are not necessarily indicative of underlying data collection flaws. As Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, argued on X over the weekend: "BLS's first-release estimates of non-farm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time." It should also be noted that the BLS compiles inflation as well as employment data, so, moving forward, significant doubt could surround the credibility of the two most important economic indicators for the U.S. - and perhaps the world. Part of what constitutes "U.S. exceptionalism" is the assumption that the experts leading the country's independent institutions are exactly that, independent, meaning their actions and output can be trusted, whatever the results. Baseless accusations from the U.S. president that the BLS, the Fed and other agencies are making politically motivated decisions to undermine his administration only undermine trust in the U.S. itself. "If doubts are sustained, it will lead investors to demand more of a risk premium to own U.S. assets," says Rebecca Patterson, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "While only one of many forces driving asset valuations, it will limit returns across markets." This furor comes as Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's resignation on Friday gives Trump the chance to put a third nominee on the seven-person Fed board, perhaps a potential future chair to fill that slot as a holding place until Powell's term expires in May. Whoever that person is will likely be more of a policy dove than a hawk. Policy uncertainty, which had been gradually subsiding since the April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff turmoil, is now very much back on investors' radar. What could move markets tomorrow? * China, Japan, euro zone services PMIs (July) * South Korea inflation (July) * U.S. services PMI, ISM (July) * U.S. trade (June) * U.S. Treasury auctions $58 bln of 3-year notes * U.S. earnings including Caterpillar, AMD and Pfizer Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot) Sign in to access your portfolio
