25% tariff a negotiation tool; India must use August talks wisely: Anurag Singh

Time of India

2 days ago

"Ultimately, the 25% tariff — half of it could be absorbed by Indian exporters, and the rest by American importers. So, again, it's manageable. I see it as a conscious decision by the Indian government, and one we should be okay with," says
Anurag Singh
, Managing Partner, Ansid Capital.
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Our top story today — Trump slapping a
25% tariff on India
. This move has surprised not just India but the rest of the world as well. If there was any country that could have struck a better deal, it was India. With this announcement, do you think this is some sort of pressure tactic — a way for Trump to push India into negotiating a deal on his terms? Is this perhaps more temporary in nature?
Anurag Singh:
I'm a little surprised by the notion that India was in the best position to strike a deal. Every other major trading partner among the top 10 with the United States has already struck a deal — except India. So, it was inevitable that some kind of tariff was coming. Threats only work to a certain point. Once a deadline is set, if Trump had deferred even this one, it would have looked weak on his part.
So, in that context, it's not a big deal. This is a choice India made. Yes, it is a pressure tactic, of course. If tomorrow India agrees to what the US administration wants — say, opening certain sectors — then the tariff could be reduced from 25% to 20%, even down to 15%, depending on what India is willing to offer.
But the problem is, it's not very clear what India was actually willing to put on the table. We've heard about India's red lines — what it wouldn't accept — but not much about what it would concede. In that absence, this decision doesn't feel like a big loss. If this is the choice India made, that's fine. We should accept it and move on.
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Ultimately, the 25% tariff — half of it could be absorbed by Indian exporters, and the rest by American importers. So, again, it's manageable. I see it as a conscious decision by the Indian government, and one we should be okay with.
As you've pointed out, it seems to be a conscious choice. But India and the US have been in talks for a long time, and we've heard that the next round of discussions is expected in August when a US delegation visits India. With the 25% tariff announcement coming yesterday, do you think this signals a breakdown in negotiations, or is it simply a negotiating tactic?
Anurag Singh:
No, there's no breakdown here. Let's understand this — most countries already face around 20% tariffs. So India getting hit with 25% isn't out of the ordinary.
Look at countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam — even the European Union. The EU accepted a 15% tariff after essentially opening its economy to near free trade with the US.
So in comparison, if India got 25% and didn't have to open much more of its economy beyond what it's already importing, that's not a bad outcome.
That said, when the US delegation visits, the focus will likely be on addressing the $40 billion trade deficit the US has with India. India exports about $85 billion worth of goods to the US and imports around $45 billion — leaving a gap of $40 billion.
I'm sure the US administration will push for India to buy more to help bridge that gap. Likely suggestions will include buying more aircraft from Boeing or more energy products. But the latter might not work, as US energy prices may not be competitive for India.
So realistically, buying more aircraft or defense equipment is what's likely. And that's not unreasonable — India does need both. So if those purchases help balance trade, it could be a win-win.