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Parties in full swing, tough path to election majority

Parties in full swing, tough path to election majority

The Advertiser12-06-2025
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
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'Battery of the nation' undersea power cable at risk

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Marinus Link has been touted as a critical component in making Tasmania the "battery" of the nation by increasing the island's capacity to export green power and allow excess energy generated on the mainland to be stored in Tasmania's hydro storage. The first stage is not slated to be finished until 2028/29. One of the nation's largest energy projects could be in doubt amid a government stoush and a cost blowout. The multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link undersea power cable project to connect Tasmania to the mainland has been touted as critical to making the island state the "battery of the nation" by increasing its capacity to export green power. The $5.5 billion project is set to be funded by the federal, Tasmanian and Victorian governments. The Tasmanian government's decision on its 17.7 per cent share of the link's Stage 1 cable, initially promised by July 31, has been delayed. Tasmania's Shadow Energy Minister Janie Finlay on Saturday accused Premier Jeremy Rockliff of blocking a briefing from Energy Minister Nick Duigan on the Marinus business case. It had been hoped the briefing would create bipartisan support to secure the project as Tasmania's Liberal government scrambles for survival following the July 19 election. "We are days away from a critical decision on one of Tasmania's largest infrastructure projects," Ms Finlay told reporters. "The business case has been sitting in the premier's office for two months, but Jeremy Rockliff won't let Tasmanians see it. "Not only have they just not briefed Tasmanian Labor, but the premier has stepped in and actively blocked that." Tasmanian Minerals, Manufacturing and Energy Council chief executive Ray Mostogl said the delay and uncertainty placed the entire project at risk. Marinus Link must "issue notice to proceed" by the end of August or lose a $1.07 billion contract with the Italy-based ­Prysmian Group to supply the 345km cable. Tasmania's Liberal government is in caretaker mode after the state election delivered another large crossbench, some of whom oppose the Marinus project. Ms Finlay accused the Rockliff government of hiding the Marinus Link business case for political gain because it included significant price impacts to pay for transmission infrastructure. The government has denied Mr Rockliff or his staff blocked a briefing, saying the opposition would be briefed in line with caretaker conventions. "We are carefully and methodically working through the details, with a decision expected soon," Mr Duigan said. The undersea electricity and data connector would link Tasmania's northwest with Victoria's Latrobe Valley and allow the smaller state to import surplus solar while exporting hydropower to the mainland grid, where it could help reduce the risk of brownouts. The project was scaled back in September 2023 after the cost of two cables blew out by $1.7 billion to an estimated $5.5 billion. Under the plan, Victoria has a 33.3 per cent share and Tasmania 17.7 per cent, with an option to sell its stake to the Commonwealth on completion. Marinus Link has been touted as a critical component in making Tasmania the "battery" of the nation by increasing the island's capacity to export green power and allow excess energy generated on the mainland to be stored in Tasmania's hydro storage. The first stage is not slated to be finished until 2028/29. One of the nation's largest energy projects could be in doubt amid a government stoush and a cost blowout. The multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link undersea power cable project to connect Tasmania to the mainland has been touted as critical to making the island state the "battery of the nation" by increasing its capacity to export green power. The $5.5 billion project is set to be funded by the federal, Tasmanian and Victorian governments. The Tasmanian government's decision on its 17.7 per cent share of the link's Stage 1 cable, initially promised by July 31, has been delayed. Tasmania's Shadow Energy Minister Janie Finlay on Saturday accused Premier Jeremy Rockliff of blocking a briefing from Energy Minister Nick Duigan on the Marinus business case. It had been hoped the briefing would create bipartisan support to secure the project as Tasmania's Liberal government scrambles for survival following the July 19 election. "We are days away from a critical decision on one of Tasmania's largest infrastructure projects," Ms Finlay told reporters. "The business case has been sitting in the premier's office for two months, but Jeremy Rockliff won't let Tasmanians see it. "Not only have they just not briefed Tasmanian Labor, but the premier has stepped in and actively blocked that." Tasmanian Minerals, Manufacturing and Energy Council chief executive Ray Mostogl said the delay and uncertainty placed the entire project at risk. Marinus Link must "issue notice to proceed" by the end of August or lose a $1.07 billion contract with the Italy-based ­Prysmian Group to supply the 345km cable. Tasmania's Liberal government is in caretaker mode after the state election delivered another large crossbench, some of whom oppose the Marinus project. Ms Finlay accused the Rockliff government of hiding the Marinus Link business case for political gain because it included significant price impacts to pay for transmission infrastructure. The government has denied Mr Rockliff or his staff blocked a briefing, saying the opposition would be briefed in line with caretaker conventions. "We are carefully and methodically working through the details, with a decision expected soon," Mr Duigan said. The undersea electricity and data connector would link Tasmania's northwest with Victoria's Latrobe Valley and allow the smaller state to import surplus solar while exporting hydropower to the mainland grid, where it could help reduce the risk of brownouts. The project was scaled back in September 2023 after the cost of two cables blew out by $1.7 billion to an estimated $5.5 billion. Under the plan, Victoria has a 33.3 per cent share and Tasmania 17.7 per cent, with an option to sell its stake to the Commonwealth on completion. Marinus Link has been touted as a critical component in making Tasmania the "battery" of the nation by increasing the island's capacity to export green power and allow excess energy generated on the mainland to be stored in Tasmania's hydro storage. The first stage is not slated to be finished until 2028/29. One of the nation's largest energy projects could be in doubt amid a government stoush and a cost blowout. The multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link undersea power cable project to connect Tasmania to the mainland has been touted as critical to making the island state the "battery of the nation" by increasing its capacity to export green power. The $5.5 billion project is set to be funded by the federal, Tasmanian and Victorian governments. The Tasmanian government's decision on its 17.7 per cent share of the link's Stage 1 cable, initially promised by July 31, has been delayed. Tasmania's Shadow Energy Minister Janie Finlay on Saturday accused Premier Jeremy Rockliff of blocking a briefing from Energy Minister Nick Duigan on the Marinus business case. It had been hoped the briefing would create bipartisan support to secure the project as Tasmania's Liberal government scrambles for survival following the July 19 election. "We are days away from a critical decision on one of Tasmania's largest infrastructure projects," Ms Finlay told reporters. "The business case has been sitting in the premier's office for two months, but Jeremy Rockliff won't let Tasmanians see it. "Not only have they just not briefed Tasmanian Labor, but the premier has stepped in and actively blocked that." Tasmanian Minerals, Manufacturing and Energy Council chief executive Ray Mostogl said the delay and uncertainty placed the entire project at risk. Marinus Link must "issue notice to proceed" by the end of August or lose a $1.07 billion contract with the Italy-based ­Prysmian Group to supply the 345km cable. Tasmania's Liberal government is in caretaker mode after the state election delivered another large crossbench, some of whom oppose the Marinus project. Ms Finlay accused the Rockliff government of hiding the Marinus Link business case for political gain because it included significant price impacts to pay for transmission infrastructure. The government has denied Mr Rockliff or his staff blocked a briefing, saying the opposition would be briefed in line with caretaker conventions. "We are carefully and methodically working through the details, with a decision expected soon," Mr Duigan said. The undersea electricity and data connector would link Tasmania's northwest with Victoria's Latrobe Valley and allow the smaller state to import surplus solar while exporting hydropower to the mainland grid, where it could help reduce the risk of brownouts. The project was scaled back in September 2023 after the cost of two cables blew out by $1.7 billion to an estimated $5.5 billion. Under the plan, Victoria has a 33.3 per cent share and Tasmania 17.7 per cent, with an option to sell its stake to the Commonwealth on completion. Marinus Link has been touted as a critical component in making Tasmania the "battery" of the nation by increasing the island's capacity to export green power and allow excess energy generated on the mainland to be stored in Tasmania's hydro storage. The first stage is not slated to be finished until 2028/29.

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