Parties in full swing, tough path to election majority

The Advertiser

12-06-2025

The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.
The starter's gun has been fired for a snap Tasmanian election but whether the political situation is any less messy after polling day is anyone's guess.
Minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff's refusal to step down after losing a no-confidence motion last week has triggered the island's second poll in 16 months.
His party rolled out its first wave of candidates on Thursday's first day of campaigning before the July 19 vote.
The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor opposition (10) must get the public on board to have any chance of reaching the 18-seat mark needed to rule in majority.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have governed in minority for two years.
They suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 election, with voters largely jumping to minor parties and independents.
It won't be easy for the Liberals or Labor to get the swing required for majority, election analyst Kevin Bonham said.
The Liberals picked up 37 per cent of the vote in 2024 and Labor 29 per cent.
"(Both) parties need a large swing. You'd be looking at a primary vote of around the low 40s (for majority)," Dr Bonham said.
The most recent opinion polling in May showed support for the Liberals had fallen from the election result to 29 per cent, while Labor's backing increased marginally to 31 per cent.
Labor took two seats off the Liberals in Tasmania at the May national election but Dr Bonham said the party couldn't rely on that wave of support at state level.
Labor is also without popular former state leader Rebecca White, who now sits in federal parliament.
"There were some different factors playing into the federal (result) like campaigns against (Peter) Dutton over health," Dr Bonham said.
Minor parties and independent candidates are already throwing their hat in the ring.
Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal poll, is running as an independent in Franklin.
The Nationals are expected to put forward former Liberal MP John Tucker, whose defection in 2023 plunged the Liberals into minority, as a candidate.
"There has been a lot of disquiet (from the public)," Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio.
"It seems both the major parties have been focused on themselves rather than the issues of everyday Tasmanians."
Labor leader Dean Winter's no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was successful with support of the Greens and three crossbench MPs.
The motion cited budget mismanagement, including ballooning net debt, and the delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries project.
Mr Rockliff said he wanted the campaign to be about Tasmania's future.
"I know Tasmanians did not want an election. Dean Winter caused this election with his desperation and immaturity," he told reporters on Thursday.
Mr Winter fired back, labelling Mr Rockliff stubborn for refusing to stand aside after the parliament lost confidence in him.
Labor says it won't do deals with the Greens to govern but hasn't ruled out forming alliances with other members of a potential crossbench.