Central Texas on alert: Severe thunderstorm threat looms with flash flood risks tonight
Weather experts tracking satellite data said a weather system, or 'vort center,' is slowly moving east through the Concho Valley and is set to reach the Hill Country overnight. This system is pulling in a lot of deep moisture from the south, especially in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Moisture levels are high, with some areas showing values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches, enough to fuel intense storms, according to Weather Prediction Centre.
Also Read: Who is Devyn Smith? 23-year-old survives deadly Texas flood that killed most of her family
Atmosphere holding energy known as CAPE
Meteorologists suggested that the atmosphere is holding an amount of energy, known as CAPE, anywhere from 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg, indicating storms that develop can reach very strong levels quite quickly. All of these factors in combination with a weak surface trough, a stalled front in the area, and increasing southerly flow at the surface will favor rounds of thunderstorms.
As the system moves east and tightens up later tonight, forecasters expect storms to grow stronger and more organised. They will likely stretch from southwest to northeast across central Texas. On top of that, this area will be sitting in the 'right entrance' region of a high-level jet stream, which supports more rising air and storm growth.
Rain could fall fast at rates between 2 to 4 inches an hour in the heaviest storms. Forecast models, including HRRR and HREF guidance, support these rates.
As winds steering the storms will be weak and coming from just the right direction, storms may 'train' — meaning they pass repeatedly over the same spots. That raises the risk for serious flash flooding.
4 to 6 inches of rainfall
By approximately 3 a.m. Central Time, parts of this area could see 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with more expected into the early morning hours. This is hazardous, especially for anyone in flood-prone areas of the Hill Country, where flash flooding could become life-threatening later tonight.
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