New York is flirting with an economic catastrophe
But for anyone who owns or runs a business, the rest of his platform is, to put it mildly, frightening.
He wants to impose an extra 2 per cent income tax on New Yorkers who earn more than $US1 million a year; double down on rent controls that are already very tight; raise the minimum wage; push up the city's top rate of corporation tax, on top of federal taxes, from 7.25 per cent to 11.5 per cent; launch government-run grocery stores; and introduce free childcare across the city.
It is a big-state, high-tax agenda. With that manifesto, it is probably no surprise that 'Fix the City', the political action committee backing Cuomo to take on Mamdani, has attracted big money donations from people such as Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor, as well as financiers Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square, and Dan Loeb, the founder of Third Point.
If Mandami wins, there will be a 'flight of businesses from New York', argued Mr Ackman in a recent interview.
Many of his Wall Street friends no doubt agree with that assessment.
Even more than San Francisco or London, New York has always been the beating heart of global capitalism. It is the hub around which it revolves, the place where money is raised, capital deployed and ideas tried out.
We already have a very good idea of what happens to even the greatest US cities once they fall under the control of the far-Left.
San Francisco is not just a major banking centre, but it is also right next to Silicon Valley – the hub of America's all-conquering tech industry.
And yet, under the radical London Breed, who served as the city's mayor from 2018 until earlier this year, San Francisco defunded its police force, allowed crime and homelessness to run rampant, drove out retailers and destroyed the city's reputation as a place to do business.
Portland, in Oregon, witnessed a very similar trend, with Ted Wheeler, its radical mayor, diverting money from law enforcement into social activism.
Indeed, we have witnessed the same dismal phenomenon on this side of the Atlantic, with Sir Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, presiding over a rise in petty crime, fare dodging and homelessness that has eroded business confidence in the UK capital.
If Mamdami takes power in New York, we can expect to see the same fate befall the city.
In time, of course, the policies of the far-Left will prove to be so disastrous that the politicians imposing them are kicked out of power.
In San Francisco, under Daniel Lurie, the new mayor, the streets are starting to become safe once again and the city is beginning to heal.
The same has happened in Portland. We are, unfortunately, a long way from that point in London, but when Sir Sadiq is finally replaced, a new mayor may well be able to start the work of restoring the city to its former greatness.
The trouble is, a huge amount of damage is done in the meantime.
Higher income taxes in New York will lead to an exodus of millionaires out of the city to low or zero-tax cities and states, such as booming Miami, in Florida, or Dallas and Austin, in Texas.
We can expect the banks and hedge funds to drift away from Wall Street to other financial centres.
We can expect apartment prices to soar as rent controls force landlords to get out of the market, as they have done in every other major town or country where they have been attempted, while law enforcement will decline, and low-skilled immigrants will flood into the city.
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In reality, New York is flirting with an economic catastrophe, and the reverberations of that will be felt right around the world.
After all, this is not just any urban centre. Even more than San Francisco or London, New York has always been the beating heart of global capitalism. It is the hub around which it revolves, the place where money is raised, capital deployed and ideas tried out.
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Sydney Morning Herald
a day ago
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In place, to date, are the 10 per cent baseline tariff on all imports to the US, along with some specific tariffs on sectors like steel and aluminium. The 'big ones' – the 'reciprocal' tariffs tailored to individual countries' exports to the US -- won't be unveiled until next Wednesday and could take months to show up in inflation data. The risk of cutting rates prematurely and then seeing a tariff-driven spike in the inflation rate explains why the Fed has adopted a 'wait and see' approach to its monetary policies. The relatively strong US economy and job market at present provide no obvious downside to being patient. Trump is impatient – he wants the Fed to cut its target for the federal funds rate from its current range of 4.25 to 4.5 per cent to between 1 and 2 per cent – because he's about to inject a debt-funded fiscal boost into the economy. The US Senate narrowly approved Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act on Tuesday (thanks to vice president JD Vance's casting vote) after a marathon 24-hour session. That bill, whose measures and cost might be changed when it returns to the House, would add between $US3.3 trillion ($5 trillion) and $US4 trillion ($6.1 trillion) to US deficits and debt over the next decade. Loading With the interest costs on US government debt already running at about $US1 trillion a year, the new debt generated by that bill will add hundreds of billions more – unless the Fed cuts rates. Hence Trump's comment that hundred of billions of dollars are being lost because of its inaction. The problem for the Fed, and Trump, is that the central bank's mandate is to promote price stability and maximum employment, not to enable the US government to borrow more cheaply. Trump's attempts to coerce Powell and his fellow board members into cutting rates to help him politically, if they succeeded, would undermine the Fed's credibility and the trust in it as an institution independent of politics and politicians. That independence is important for the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations and guide and reassure financial market participants that its policies are consistent and predictable, which is fundamental to financial stability. The risk for America is that, if investors see the Fed's independence compromised and its policies driven by political considerations, there'd be an exodus of capital. Given the deluge of US debt that will need to be financed and refinanced in the bond market, that would itself push interest rates up. Confidence in the Fed and other respected central banks rests on their predictability, and a conviction that their monetary policy settings will either be neutral or, when necessary, counter-cyclical to keep inflation rates under control. Pro-cyclical settings – policies influenced by the demands of politicians who face relatively short political cycles and who want growth regardless of the longer-term consequences – would risk igniting inflation. Trump might want a rate-cutter in Powell's chair but, if that were to eventuate, it would be damaging to the Fed, the bond market and the US dollar, which just experienced its weakest first half of the year in more than half a century. US bond funds have had their biggest net outflows since the pandemic. Trump's trade wars are being blamed for both. Loading While there has been speculation that Trump will soon appoint a 'shadow chair' whose presence (and utterings) could confuse markets and undermine Powell, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said it is possible that the White House will nominate a candidate to the board in October or November. Powell is in the chair until May and has no plans to vacate until then and Trump, despite continually musing about it, has no power to remove him any earlier. But the term of one of the Fed's governors, Adriana Kugler, ends in January and Trump's 'shadow' chair could be inserted into the board then. The credibility of Powell's successor would, of course, be compromised if they were seen as a Trump stooge - although Trump's expectations of the next chair's influence might be a tad unrealistic. There are 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, and 12 voting members. The committee, which actually makes rate decisions, can elect its own chair. One person, even the Fed chair, can't dictate outcomes and a Fed chair whose public commentary was at odds with the bank's decisions would only confuse markets and damage the institution. Powell is fortunate that even the US Supreme Court seems to believe Trump can't force him out of the Fed. Where Trump can threaten Elon Musk (a naturalised US citizen) with deportation to South Africa, or siccing Musk's former DOGE colleagues on him, his companies and the billions of dollars of taxpayer support they receive each year, all Trump can do to Powell really is continue to abuse him. When Trump attacks Musk (who is again fiercely criticising the One Big Beautiful Bill's impact on US deficits and debt), it costs the former First Buddy and his investors serious amounts of money. Tesla shares fell more than 5 per cent on Tuesday, wiping about $US55 billion off its market capitalisation.