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RIL stock 4% shy from peak; time to buy or sell? Here's what brokerages say
SI Reporter Mumbai
Reliance Industries (RIL) share price
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) hit an over 11-month high of ₹1,544.50, gaining 1 per cent on the BSE in Monday's intra-day trade in an otherwise subdued market. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was up 0.01 per cent at 83,439.84 at 02:12 PM.
The stock price of the country's most valued company in terms of market capitalisation now stands 4 per cent away from its all-time high of ₹1,608.95 (adjusted to 1:1 bonus), touched on July 8, 2025. The stock has recovered 38 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 hit on April 7, 2025.
Brokerages view on RIL
India's largest conglomerate, RIL, could generate up to $60 billion in value from its new energy business as it integrates green power into its chemicals, data centre, and refinery operations, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
The brokerage said that RIL's next leg of market capitalisation growth will be powered by the combination of new energy and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, marking what it called a 'more ambitious, far more transformational, and far more global' pivot than any of its previous forays.
Meanwhile, CareEdge Ratings believes that RIL shall continue to benefit from its leadership position in its diversified key business segments viz., oil to chemicals, telecom and retail, which shall support the business profile and lead to sustained strong credit profile on a consolidated basis.
RIL saw a consistent uptrend in January to March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25), driven by a growth rebound in retail and digital services. According to analysts at Geojit Financial Services, looking ahead, the digital services segment is expected to benefit from factors such as the rollout of 5G services, potential increase in average revenue per user (ARPU), and scaling up of home broadband services.
Additionally, retail business growth is expected to be driven by market share gains and emergence of quick commerce opportunities. However, RIL's growth trajectory could be impacted by margin pressure from increased investments in new energy initiatives and the slowdown in global demand for fuel and chemicals, the brokerage firm said.
RIL is likely to declare its April-June quarter (Q1FY25) earnings in second half of the July month. Last year, the company had announced its Q1FY24 financial results on July 19, 2024.
RIL: Key metrics
Kotak Institutional Equities expects good Q1 earnings driven by O2C, telecom and retail. The brokerage firm expects consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to rise 15.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) (up 2.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)) with 19-20 per cent YoY EBITDA increase for O2C, digital and retail segments, partly offset by oil & gas (down 7.5 per cent YoY).
Despite the refinery shutdown in Q1, O2C EBITDA will rise 3.5 per cent QoQ (19 per cent YoY on low base) on better margins. With tail benefits of July 2024 tariff hike and better transmission to margins, analysts expect R-Jio's EBITDA to rise 4.2 per cent QoQ (18.6 per cent YoY). The brokerage firm said it assumes blended ARPU of ₹ 209.5 (1.6 per cent QoQ, ~15 per cent YoY). It forecast retail EBITDA to grow ~21 per cent YoY (up 1.1 per cent QoQ) on a low base.
Meanwhile, analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities reiterated BUY on RIL (revised target price ₹1,700). They believe RIL has industry leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15-20 per cent EPS compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 3-5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses with Jio's ARPU is expected to rise at ~13 per cent CAGR over FY25-28 with ARPU being on a structural uptrend given the industry structure, future investment needs, and the need to avoid a duopoly market. Clarity on the potential timeline and valuation of Jio's listing could be a possible near- to medium term trigger, the brokerage firm said.
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