YouTube Projected To Surpass Disney As World's Largest Media Company
Earlier this week Michael Nathanson, a partner at MoffettNathanson, declared that based on revenue, YouTube will, by yearend, become "the new king of all media' surpassing Disney. In 2024 YouTube generated $54.2 billion in revenue ranking second to Disney. Last year, Disney's revenue (excluding their parks and experiences divisions) reached $59.7 billion.
In its fourth quarter 2024 earnings report, YouTube's ad revenue reached a record quarterly high $10.5 billion. For all of 2024 ad revenue totaled $36.15 billion, a year-over-year increase of +15%. In the analysis Nathanson noted if YouTube was a standalone business, they would be worth upwards of $550 billion, accounting for approximately 30% of parent company Alphabet's total valuation.
Besides ad dollars, YouTube revenue sources include; subscriptions such as YouTube Premium, YouTube Music along with NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube Primetime Channels. Another revenue source is the virtual MVPD YouTube TV.
Nathanson wrote, 'Looking ahead, we expect subscription revenue growth to continue to outpace advertising, driven primarily by subscriber additions. However, with no further price increases factored into our model, we anticipate a gradual slowdown in subscription growth as net additions moderate, particularly for YouTube TV. As a result, we forecast YouTube's total revenue growth to settle in the low- to mid-double-digit range from 2025 through 2027.'
By 2027, Nathanson projects, YouTube could reach over $75 billion in revenue via subscription services (YouTube TV, YouTube Premium and Music) and advertising.
According to Nielsen's monthly Media Distributor Gauge report for February 2025, YouTube led all media companies with an 11.6% share of time spent viewing, an increase of 2% from January. This was also YouTube's highest share to date and marked the second month they ranked first in time spent viewing. (They also ranked first in November 2024.) Disney ranked second with a 10.0% share followed by Fox (which televised and streamed Super Bowl LIX), with an audience share of 8.3% and Netflix at 8.2%. Nielsen added, nearly 27% of time spent streaming in February was watching YouTube.
Nielsen also looked at the steady growth of YouTube over the past two years in time spent watching on television. Since February 2023 YouTube's share has risen 53%. While YouTube's growth has been prevalent across all age groups, the viewing increase has been greatest among adults 65+ at +96%. Nielsen notes the older demographic accounts for nearly as much to the audience contribution as kids 2-11 (15.4% vs. 16.9%).
Nielsen's report includes only the television segment of YouTube's usage. Hence, any mobile or laptop viewing or watching on its virtual MVPD, YouTube TV is not measured. Earlier this year, in a blog post, YouTube CEO Neil Mohan, noted that U.S. television had surpassed mobile as the primary way people watch YouTube.
On Wednesday, May 14 at 5:30 p.m. (ET), YouTube will host their fourth annual 'Brandcast'. Once again, the event will be held in New York's Lincoln Center. YouTube's Brandcast is scheduled amid upfront week with hundreds of advertising executives present. Lady Gaga is expected to perform. MrBeast, YouTube's top creator with over 378 million subscribers, is also expected to make an appearance. Brittany Broski, will be the creator host of this year's presentation.
Nathanson's commentary also addressed the continued growth of the virtual MVPD YouTube TV. Launched in 2017, as of February 2024, YouTube TV had about eight million subscribers. This ranks YouTube TV as the fourth largest pay TV distributor behind Charter, Comcast and DirecTV. Nathanson estimates that nowadays the subscriber count is at 9.4 million.
With cord-cutting continuing the report notes, 'YouTube TV is on a clear path to becoming the largest pay TV provider in the United States, by around 2026.' Nathanson estimates in 2027 YouTube TV will have 11.5 million subscribers compared to 9.2 million for Charter and 8.4 million subscribers for Comcast. Since its launch, the monthly subscription fee for YouTube TV has risen from $35 to $83.
In 2023, YouTube became the home of NFL Sunday Ticket. The service streams out-of-market games on Fox and CBS on Sunday afternoons. YouTube had replaced DirecTV and outbid Apple among others in a seven-year, $14 billion agreement. NFL Sunday Ticket gave YouTube a toehold with the most popular sport and television program in the country. In addition, NFL Sunday Ticket is being bundled with YouTube TV.
In March, YouTube announced they have over 125 million subscribers (including free trials) for YouTube Music and YouTube Premium services, an increase from 100 million from just one year prior. Lyor Cohen, YouTube's global head of music wrote, 'This momentum is critical to our goal of becoming the No. 1 contributor of revenue to the [music]
Also in March, Edison Research reported among Gen Z (age 13-29), YouTube has now edged out Spotify in becoming the most used service for podcast listening. In February, YouTube said they now had over one billion monthly active users. Last year, more than 400 million hours of podcasts were watched each month on living room devices.
Nathanson noted, 'YouTube has substantial runway for further growth, not just in monetization but also in expanding into new business segments, such as premier streaming aggregator'. Adding, 'If executed effectively, this could further widen the gap between YouTube and other media players.'
Nathanson's prognosis comes 20 years after YouTube was launched on February 14, 2005, by three PayPal engineers Chad Hurley, Steve Chen and Jawed Karim. On April 23, 2005 the first YouTube video entitled 'Me at The Zoo' was uploaded by co-founder Karim. The video lasted 19 seconds. Eighteen months after that first video, Google acquired YouTube, for the now bargain price of $1.65 billion.
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