What should Year 1 expectations be for Cam Ward, other 2025 NFL Draft first-round picks?

New York Times

3 days ago

Imagine a Christmas morning when you've just opened the greatest gift of your entire life — right before a guy in a business suit slides down the chimney and tells you that not only do you have to wait four months to use it, but also no one's actually sure if it'll work.
Welcome to the NFL.
The non-padded, honeymoon phase for most of the league's rookies is over, and now the exciting/terrifying stretch in which teams start to see whether they've actually drafted properly is underway. Here's a look at rookie-year expectations for each of the 2025 first-round NFL Draft picks:
My biggest concern for Ward throughout the draft process was him being asked to carry a bad team immediately.
However, the rebuilding Titans have given him some help. Kevin Zeitler and Dan Moore were big additions, as was Tyler Lockett. Even if Lockett can't quite give at age 32 what he had at 25, his presence will be a big deal.
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Ward has to play faster in the pocket and continue to work on ball placement. He's going to struggle, especially early, but if the Titans ride with him through thick and thin, expect him to be noticeably better by January.
It's difficult to set a baseline rookie expectation for Hunter — we've really never seen anything like him. The Jaguars have designed a camp plan that will work him on both sides of the football, including at corner and receiver in some of the same practices.
It might take Hunter more time to make an impact defensively, but expect him to be a playmaker pretty quickly on offense when he's given a chance. Athletically, he's been ready for at least two years.
Hunted down ❌@Dream_Finders | #DUUUVAL
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) July 27, 2025
It's important to remember that Carter was a stack linebacker his first two years of college and only fully transitioned to the role he'll play for the Giants ahead of the 2024 season. That said, Carter has shown terrific development across the board as a pass rusher.
I don't expect a dominant year right away, but I do think Carter will meet or pass the average rookie output we've seen from the last five edge defenders taken in the top five (Will McDonald IV, Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Chase Young) — about 50 pressures and seven sacks.
The cleanest O-line prospect in the '25 draft, Campbell is one of the rare offensive linemen who was probably ready for the NFL on some level as a true sophomore. He played with an advanced understanding of hands and feet in pass protection at LSU and was one of the toughest players in the class. He's likely going to be an instant starter.
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Graham was a top-five player on my board for a long time, not just because of his ability to consistently explode blocks to collapse a pocket but also because of his football IQ and performances in the biggest moments against the best teams. As a sophomore, Graham was arguably the best player on Michigan's 2024 national title team. If he's in shape, he'll also be an instant starter.
Jeanty's one of those guys — he's on the Bijan Robinson/Jahmyr Gibbs dance floor and has the ability to be an immediate difference-maker for an offense. Chip Kelly can, and probably will, have a field day with all the different things Jeanty can do.
Expect a productive rookie year from Jeanty, who should be an offensive focal point alongside Brock Bowers very soon.
The Jets got to take their time (for a bit) with Olu Fashanu last season. That probably won't be the case this year — and from an athletic standpoint, Membou's ready. He gets to slide into a right tackle job (the only spot he played in college) and should get to line up alongside Alijah Vera-Tucker. Membou might be a bit wobbly early as he adjusts to the way NFL refs call holding, but he's pro-ready.
For Bryce Young's sake, I hesitate so I don't jinx anything, but the Panthers are starting to look like a team that supports a young QB rather than forcing him through roadblocks.
Adding McMillan to a room with Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen gives Young plenty to work with, while allowing McMillan time to develop route nuance and his work against physical corners. He's talented enough to be the best receiver on this team by the end of the year, even if he won't need to be immediately.
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Not only did I have other tackle prospects higher than Banks on my final board, but also I was in the camp that saw him more as a guard. Banks only played left tackle in college, and New Orleans got great rookie production from Taliese Fuaga at that spot last year.
Although Banks has repped everywhere but center so far in New Orleans, the hope is surely for him to ultimately take over for Trevor Penning opposite Fuaga on one side or the other. I'm just going to be a bit nervous here until I see it all come together.
A lot of this depends on Loveland's health, though the rookie was healthy enough to be on the field in some capacity when Chicago opened camp. In terms of schematic fit, though, this was one of my favorite picks. Loveland is a taller version of Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta, one of Ben Johnson's favorite weapons in Detroit. If Loveland's healthy, I think he can be an All-Rookie performer.
You Love to see it 🤩 pic.twitter.com/DhaNLc3Ix7
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) July 26, 2025
During the scouting process, there were days I thought Williams would be a no-doubt future Pro Bowler and others when I thought he was the draft version of a scratch-off lottery ticket.
It's so hard to project Williams' instant NFL impact because he was hurt so much in college. If he can stay healthy all preseason and not miss any time, he'll surprise tackles and guards with his blend of power, length and burst. He can't be off the field, though, as much growth is needed.
The more I've considered this one, the more I've liked it. Initially, I thought No. 12 was too high for Booker, but he was easily the most physically impressive run blocker this class had outside of Campbell and Membou. And I don't care that he's guard-only.
If Booker stays in good shape weight-wise, he can be a dominant interior presence. He can also help change an offensive culture.
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I didn't love this pick in April, and I'm still nervous about it. There's no doubt Grant is a fantastic athlete at 6 feet 4 and 330 pounds, but he also has had issues staying in shape year-round, played in a heavy rotation in college next to the best DT in the country (Graham) and wound up out of position too much against the run.
If his flashes become the norm, Grant will be a star. However, we've only seen flashes to date.
Everyone loved this pick. Warren is a great fit within the Colts offense, fills a huge need and arrives at a critical time in Anthony Richardson's development. His production as a rookie will depend on Indianapolis' QB situation, but his impact on the run game could be immediate and long-lasting.
Part of the intrigue with Walker entering the draft was his potential to add versatility in the front seven. He has mainly worked with the outside linebackers in Atlanta so far, but he offers some of the traits that make Carter and Micah Parsons special (albeit in a slightly smaller package). Coverage could be an adventure, but Walker's fearlessness/rush instincts in the box should earn him a starting spot quickly.
Physically, Nolen was arguably the most impressive defensive lineman in this class. On the field, he's been inconsistent. Nolen's first step and ability to create havoc immediately are going to translate, but he'll struggle against the run if he doesn't play with more discipline. Nolen's rush-move set is also limited — he might be a rotational player as a rookie if he can't become more efficient.
Nothing about Stewart's first offseason in Cincinnati has been ideal, as he missed all of spring and the first three training camp practices due to a contract dispute. Of all the rookies who couldn't afford missed time like that, Stewart was high on the list. He left Texas A&M as more of a combination of traits and talent than a polished football player.
Proceed with caution — it could take a minute for Stewart to settle in.
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Zabel has been working with the starters at left guard since Seattle's offseason program started. He'll have growing pains, but I absolutely expect him to settle in as a plus-starter by the end of his rookie season. Zabel is also smart and tough enough to help C Olu Oluwatimi and OT Charles Cross improve.
Egbuka was the most NFL-ready wide receiver in this class, even if McMillan has the higher ceiling. There isn't an offense in football Egbuka wouldn't work in — he reminds me of young Los Angeles Chargers standout Ladd McConkey. Don't judge him only by target and catch totals, though, as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are still in Tampa Bay.
Expect to see a lot more of this, Krewe 👀 pic.twitter.com/mEmhjK22to
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) July 26, 2025
The Broncos have already been impressed with Barron's football IQ as a coverage defender this summer. He was one of the most versatile DBs in college football the last two seasons, so Denver might move him around from time to time. However, if he's left to develop at corner, he has All-Rookie potential on the outside as a savvy playmaker teammates will love.
I had Harmon ahead of Grant and Nolen on my final board and believe his potential to play basically anywhere up front will serve Pittsburgh well, early and often. It's hard to project a dominant season right away, but it's also hard to see a healthy Harmon not making an impact at multiple spots up front — especially in the run game.
The Chargers signed Najee Harris this offseason, but Hampton eventually (if not immediately) will be the real bell cow in Jim Harbaugh's offense. He is a true three-down player who was closer to Jeanty on more scouting boards than the average fan thought. Don't be surprised to see him as a serious candidate for rookie of the year.
Golden is the prospect Packers fans have been waiting for forever. The team's first first-round receiver since 2002 is a perfect match for everything Matt LaFleur and the Packers are about offensively.
Green Bay has done such a great job with Jayden Reed, and Golden is a more explosive version. I expect a very productive rookie year here, as Golden should be an offensive weapon who moves all over the field.
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Some of Jackson's appeal during the draft process stemmed from him playing well at tackle for Ohio State down the stretch in 2024, after spending most of his career as a guard. I'm not sure he's ready to be a starting NFL tackle, but Minnesota has been working him at left guard. Either way, Jackson still has technical issues (especially with his hands), so don't panic if he doesn't start immediately.
There's no pressure on Dart to start immediately for the Giants. However, New York is still New York, so the second Russell Wilson looks like a 36-year-old, fans are going to make it very difficult for Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen to keep Dart on the bench.
If it's even close, though, I'd lean toward playing Dart sooner than later — New York can't afford to guess on his development and skip a potentially great 2026 QB crop.
My biggest question about Pearce is still whether you can trust him to be a true three-down player in the NFL. I have little doubt he's going to be great on third-and-long, but can he hold up (at around 240 pounds) on first and second downs? If he can't, trading up for him might go in the books as a head-scratcher.
One of the safest prospects in the 2025 class, Starks should make an impact quickly. With respect to Detroit's duo of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, Starks and Kyle Hamilton could give the Ravens the NFL's top safety duo in short order.
Williams is already in line for a ton of playing time early this season, as the Lions will be without standout DT Alim McNeill (knee) until October and versatile DT Levi Onwuzurike (knee) all season. I'm not sure how much pass rush Detroit can expect early from Williams, though I do think he's ready to be a huge help against the run and a great fit in Detroit's scheme.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Conerly begin his career as a backup, because he was still more a collection of elite traits than a polished tackle when he left Oregon. He was a polarizing prospect for scouts for that exact reason.
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He's competing at right tackle, though it might take some time for Conerly to get stronger and better with his hand discipline.
Hairston suffered a non-contact injury to his right knee during a drill Tuesday, and his status moving forward is unclear. Even before the injury, questions remained about whether the 183-pound Hairston can hold up against physical NFL receivers right away.
The Bills' rookie corner is also facing a lawsuit filed earlier this month alleging he committed sexual assault in 2021. Last week, GM Brandon Beane expressed his support for Hairston. 'We have to remember in society that people can make accusations and do things,' Beane said, 'and I have no idea what the agenda is there, but I can tell you every stone we turned over, every door we looked behind, this is a very good young man.'
Injury concerns impacted Campbell's draft stock, but his potential is off the charts. Though Campbell has less experience than the other front-seven hybrids in this class, only Carter can claim physical and athletic superiority.
The Eagles also don't have to rush Campbell, but he could turn into a serious steal — right away — for Philadelphia.
Had he not injured his knee last year, Simmons might have been a top-10 pick. When he's right, his combination of foot speed and functional length makes him a terror to rush against off the edge. Not only is Simmons good enough to start right away, but also he has All-Rookie potential if he's 100 percent.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Candice Ward, James Gilbert, Michael Reaves / Getty Images)