Crypto Daybook Americas: SUI, STX Outperform as Bitcoin Whales Position for Gains
Bitcoin (BTC) is taking a breather near $94,000, having dropped to $92,000 in the past two days. The cryptocurrency chalked out a bullish breakout above key resistance early this week, shifting focus to the $100,000 level and leaving major altcoins like XRP, ETH, SOL, ADA and DOGE behind.
However, smaller coins like STX, SUI, ONDO and GRT put in double-digit gains in the past 24 hours, outperforming both BTC and the wider market: The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has gained about 3%.
BTC's $20,000 surge since April 7 has been underpinned by increased on-chain accumulation by whales and significant inflows through spot ETFs, with the 11 U.S.-listed funds amassing almost $1.5 billion in net inflows over the past three days, according to Farside Investors.
Market gains have been bolstered by policy developments in the U.S. Late Thursday, the Federal Reserve lifted its restrictive crypto guidance, saying state member banks no longer need to provide advance notice before engaging in crypto-related activities.
"Market internals currently suggest a consolidation phase — our base case projects accumulation between $90,000 and $95,000, with potential pullbacks to $87,000, ahead of a possible breakout toward $100,000 or more in the coming weeks," said Valentin Fournier, the lead research analyst at BRN.
QCP Capital echoed the sentiment, noting that a decisive catalyst is needed to push prices above $100,000.
Later today, the University of Michigan will publish its final survey-based inflation expectations report for April. President Donald Trump's trade war has stoked Main Street inflation concerns, so the report is likely to show an increase. The market, however, likely priced in those fears early this month and is probably focusing on next week's U.S. jobs data.
"The next big chapter here will be whether all this volatility has hit real world decisions — especially in the U.S. jobs market. There is plenty of U.S. jobs data released next week and any deterioration here could trigger another round of dollar losses — albeit a more benign dollar decline on the view that the Federal Reserve would be riding to the rescue after all," ING said.
"In terms of Fed pricing, the market now seems comfortable to price the first cut in July — potentially once we all know whether the 90-day pause in Liberation Day tariffs is temporary or longer lasting," it said. Stay alert!
Crypto:
April 25, 1 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "Key Considerations for Crypto Custody".
April 28: Enjin Relaychain increases active validator slots to 25 from 15 to enhance decentralization.
April 29, 1:05 a.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — BSC mainnet hardfork.
April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares expects its XRP ETF, offering exposure through futures and swap agreements, to begin trading on NYSE Arca.
April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
Macro
Day 5 of 6: World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington.
April 25, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases (Final) February retail sales data.
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM Est. -0.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%
Retail Sales MoM Est. -0.4% vs. Prev. -0.6%
Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.2%
April 25, 10:00 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (Final) April U.S. consumer sentiment data.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 50.8 vs. Prev. 57
April 28: Canadian federal election.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
April 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.16
April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.33
May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.97
May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.02
May 1: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.23
May 1: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, $-0.11
Governance votes & calls
Lido DAO is voting to extend its delegate incentivization program (DIP) through Q4 with a $225,000 LDO budget. Voting ends April 28.
Uniswap DAO will vote on establishing a licensing and deployment framework for Uniswap v4 to accelerate its adoption across multiple chains. The proposal grants the Uniswap Foundation a blanket exemption to deploy v4 on any DAO-approved chain and gives the Uniswap Accountability Committee authority to update deployment records. Voting is April 24-30.
April 30, 12 p.m.: Helium to host a community call meeting.
Unlocks
April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $23.45 million.
May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $221.99 million.
May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $11.28 million.
May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $13.69 million.
May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13.91 million.
May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.33 million.
Token Launches
May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB) and Wing Finance (WING).
May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.
CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
April 26: Crypto Vision Conference 2025 (Manilla)
April 26-27: Harvard Blockchain in Action Conference (Cambridge, Mass.)
April 27: N Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv)
April 27-30: Web Summit Rio 2025
April 28-29: Blockchain Disrupt 2025 (Dubai)
April 28-29: Staking Summit Dubai
April 29: El Salvador Digital Assets Summit 2025 (San Salvador, El Salvador)
April 29: IFGS 2025 (London)
April 30-May 1: TOKEN2049 (Dubai)
By Shaurya Malwa
Stablecoin supply on Solana hit a record $12.8 billion on Thursday, buoyed by Circle minting $1.75 billion of its USDC stablecoin in the recent weeks.
The minting signals strong demand and liquidity growth in Solana's ecosystem despite a market lull.
Supply of Tether's USDT on Tron crossed the $70 billion mark on Thursday.
Rollup builder Initia's new INIT tokens climbed to 92 cents after a Thursday issuance at an initial price of 60 cents. The token was airdropped to users based on their activity on the Initia network.
Content coin creation platform Zora's ZORA dropped 17% despite being added to the Coinbase listing roadmap (which is historically bullish for tokens) after failing to grab demand among retail traders.
SUI, ONDO, UNI and HBAR are have shown the most growth in perpetual futures open interest in the past 24 hours.
Open interest in BTC and ETH futures has flatlined.
Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens remain moderately positive, highlighting bullish sentiment.
The CME bitcoin futures basis still remains below 10%.
In options, traders bought ETH puts via OTC platform Paradigm while the BTC call option at $95K dominated the flow.
BTC is up 0.23% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $93,701.46 (24hrs: +1.32%)
ETH is up 0.62% at $1,774.26 (24hrs: +1.92%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.45% at 2,750.46 (24hrs: +2.79%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 3.13%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0024% (2.6608% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.26% at 99.63
Gold is up 0.9% at $3,304.78/oz
Silver is down 0.45% at $33.38/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.9% at 35,705.74
Hang Seng closed +0.32% at 21,980.74
FTSE is up 0.15% at 8,419.93
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% at 5,149.61
DJIA closed on Thursday +1.23% at 40,093.40
S&P 500 closed +2.03% at 5,484.77
Nasdaq closed +2.74% at 17,166.04
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.04% at 24,727.53
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.83% at 2,521.21
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.3%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.24% at 5,524.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.26% at 19,373.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.11% at 40,219.00
BTC Dominance: 64.18 (-0.37%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01902 (1.01%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $48.25 PH/s
Total Fees: 8.97 BTC / $834,273
CME Futures Open Interest: 139,505 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 28.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.98%
Bitcoin layer-2 protocol Stacks' native token, STX, has crossed above the Ichimoku cloud to suggest a bullish shift in momentum.
The ascending 5- and 10-day simple moving averages (SMAs) suggest the same, with $1.05, the August 2024 low, as immediate resistance.
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $350.34 (+1.33%), up 0.19% at $351 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $203.87 (+4.66%), up 1.8% at $205.67
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.68 (+10.41%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.01 (-0.85%), up 0.71% at $14.11
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.79 (+3.87%), unchanged in pre-market
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.53 (+5.76%)
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.86 (-0.11%), unchanged in pre-market
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.06 (+4.07%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.44 (+0.47%), up 2.47% at $35.29
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.21 (+2.54%), down 0.44% at $45.01
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $442 million
Cumulative net flows: $38.13 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.14 million
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $63.5million
Cumulative net flows: $2.32 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.32 million
Source: Farside Investors
The number of BTC held in wallets tied to centralized exchanges continues to slide, hitting the lowest in five years.
"Historically, such declines have often preceded price increases, as shown in the chart," CryptoRank said.
ARK Invest Raises 2030 Bitcoin Price Target to as High as $2.4M in Bullish Scenario (CoinDesk): ARK's revised bitcoin outlook sees a 2030 bull-case price 60% above last year's estimate, with base and bear scenarios projecting $1.2 million and $500,000, respectively.
Stacks' STX Is Week's Best Performer as Bitgo Link Seen Boosting Institutional Use (CoinDesk): BitGo opened the door for its customers to explore yield-generating opportunities on Stacks by integrating sBTC, a synthetic derivative that represents bitcoin in a 1:1 ratio on the Stacks blockchain.
Nvidia Continues to Keep Crypto at Arm's Length (CoinDesk): A last-minute halt on a crypto announcement underscores how Nvidia still excludes blockchain projects from its flagship programs, despite continued outreach from the sector.
China May Exempt Some U.S. Goods From Tariffs as Costs Rise (Bloomberg): China is reviewing tariff relief for select U.S. imports, including medical devices, ethane, industrial chemicals, semiconductor inputs and plane leases as officials respond to mounting pressure from affected sectors.
Ukraine May Have to Give Up Land for Peace – Kyiv Mayor Klitschko (BBC): Speaking hours after a Russian strike on Kyiv killed 12, Klitschko said President Volodymyr Zelensky may accept territorial concessions for temporary peace, though Ukrainians would never accept Russian occupation.
American Companies Shred Outlooks Over Tariff Uncertainty (The Wall Street Journal): Business leaders say shifting trade levies stall hiring, blur earnings projections and postpone capital spending, forcing continual forecast revisions across airlines, manufacturers and consumer brands.
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And, you know, I think our audience is very familiar with your work because you've been on the program numerous times before. Let's talk about the cost of living adjustment or COLA for 2025. What is it and what does it mean? Backman: Sure. So years back, lawmakers decided that Social Security benefits were going to be eligible for automatic COLA. The COLA was going to be pegged to inflation so that, you know, inflation rises, benefits get a little bit of a boost. And when you think about it, I mean, it makes sense to have COLAs be automatic as opposed to needing, you know, Congress to vote in a raise to Social Security benefits year after year. It just makes the process a lot more seamless. And logically, you know, there are people who collect Social Security for 15, 20, 30 years, and the value of a dollar is going to get eroded over a period that lengthy. So we need Social Security COLAs to enable seniors to be able to maintain their buying power as living costs go up. So every year, Social Security gets a COLA. Well, actually, I shouldn't say that. Every year, Social Security is eligible for a COLA. When inflation remains flat, Social Security benefits remain flat. When there's a decrease in inflation from one year to the next, Social Security benefits also remain flat. Luckily, there's no such thing as a negative COLA. So you're not going to see your Social Security benefit decrease, thankfully, from one year to the next, even if inflation goes that route. You're only going to see your benefit stay the same or go up. Snyder: Yeah. And can you imagine, Mark, if there was a negative COLA and they started trying to reclaim Social Security benefits? Can you imagine all the people that would be lined up at the Social Security Administration? Good for them that they don't have a negative COLA. Maurie, let's talk about inflation because we have seen over the last year plus food prices increase, gasoline prices increase, other prices increase. How does this COLA factor that in and how does it compare maybe to previous years? Backman: Sure. So, you know, thankfully, inflation has cooled pretty nicely over the past year. We're not seeing the same levels of inflation that we did back in 2021 on the heels of all those stimulus policies. We're not seeing the same level of inflation as 2022. The funny thing about Social Security COLAs and inflation is that, you know, the way I've always tried to explain it is they sort of cancel each other out. So this year's COLA is 2.5%. Benefits are rising 2.5%. And a lot of seniors are, frankly, bummed about that because when we look back to recent COLAs, the year before benefits went up 3.2%. Before that, we had some of the largest COLAs in history. We had 8.7%. We had 5.9%. These were the COLAs that came about following that period of real rampant inflation that we saw following the pandemic. So, you know, a lot of people are pretty up in arms about this 2.5% COLA. Oh, it's not enough. It's such a measly little raise. But the thing to remember is that because COLAs are tied to inflation, when you have a not so generous COLA, it also means that inflation hasn't been all that bad. You kind of can't have one without the other. Right. So, you know, when seniors were seeing their benefits rise almost 6 percent or close to 9 percent, I mean, all those COLAs did was match inflation. So what you gain in one regard, you gain a higher boost, a larger boost to your Social Security benefit. You lose in the form of prices really going up a lot significantly from one year to the next. So in the past year, what we've seen is, yes, we have seen costs continue to go up. And look, I'm not retired, but I've seen my own bills increase exponentially. And I've got a family to feed. And it's stressful. It's stressful going to the supermarket and buying like six yogurts and a jug of milk and a loaf of bread. And it's like, that'll be $22.50. And it's like, what? This was like, these are groceries that I'm carrying out in my hand, you know, and a week's worth of food for my family. I mean, it seems like I'm paying more than ever. So I'm definitely sympathetic to seniors who feel that, you know, their 2.5 percent COLA is not really going to cut it for 2025. I can see where they're coming from because costs are still high. But things could also be worse. Related: Secretary Bessent's Social Security remarks spark AARP outcry Snyder: Well, they could be worse. Maurie, they could be a lot worse. I want to ask you about taxation, because how does taxation or does taxation factor into this cost of living adjustment? Does that mean anything to those directly taking Social Security? Backman: So it's a funny thing. So seniors are often shocked to learn that Social Security benefits can be taxable at the federal level. There can also be state taxes on Social Security, actually, depending on the state you live in and the amount of your total income. But the federal government can tax a portion of your Social Security benefits. And that doesn't sit well for a lot of seniors. It almost feels kind of like a double taxation, right? Because throughout our working years, we're all paying into Social Security on our wages. And, you know, the promise is that you're going to pay taxes, you're going to pay into Social Security, but then when you're older and retired, you're going to get a monthly benefit. And then it's like, hey, guess what? You're not necessarily going to keep that monthly benefit in full because once your income exceeds a certain threshold, a portion of your benefits can be taxed. Now, here's the problem. Social Security is eligible for an annual COLA, which means that benefits historically have risen from one year to the next. There have been a few years in history with a zero COLA. But for the most part, we have seen benefits rise from one year to the next. The problem is that the income thresholds that determine whether you're going to pay taxes on your Social Security benefits, those income thresholds have not increased since 1984. That's a long time ago. Snyder: I was 12. Backman: I was around. It was a long time ago. So, you know, when you kind of just then logically put those two pieces together, it's like, well, wait a minute, you know, Social Security benefits rise every year, and Social Security benefits are calculated in the formula that determines your income and that determines whether your income is high enough to have your benefits taxed, if you get what I'm saying. Basically, it's a concept called combined income. It's a factor of your adjusted gross income. It throws in any tax-exempt interest income you receive, like if you're a municipal bond investor, you might get some tax-free income. That's counted into your combined income and then also half of your annual Social Security benefit is factored into your combined income. And basically, if you're single, once your combined income is $25,000 or higher, you're going to be paying taxes on a portion of your Social Security benefits. Now, let's think about that. $25,000. I mean, you know, yes, that's factoring in half your annual Social Security benefit, but even if we want to pad that by another $10,000, $12,000, let's talk about $37,000 a year, $40,000 a year. Are you like rolling in dough at $40,000 a year? I'm not. Snyder: No, you're typically, you know, especially if you're a retiree, you're at a fixed income. And so, you know, one of the things I want to ask you about, I want to kind of close on this, is you talked about taxation now during the campaign, we're not a political show, but, you know, there were some policy preferences or suggestions about eliminating the tax on Social Security. First, Maurie, is that possible? And what would that mean to our conversation this morning about the cost of living adjustment? Related: Medicare beneficiaries quietly face looming crisis Backman: So, that's a tricky thing too, because so President-elect Trump had pledged to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. And a big part of me wants to say that that's a really good idea, because there's a lot of people whose income is really right above that threshold where they're liable for taxes, right? But since we just discussed that it was such a low threshold, these people cannot afford to lose some of their benefits to taxes. So, in that regard, I think eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits could be a positive thing. But then we also have to remember that Social Security doesn't just get funded by payroll taxes, it also gets funded by these taxes on benefits. Now, as it stands, we are already looking at a funding shortfall for Social Security. The program's combined trust funds are set to run dry in 2035. And at that point, benefit cuts could be on the table. So, now we have to balance the upside of not taxing Social Security so that seniors get to keep their benefits in full now versus the potential downside of, well, then what does that do to Social Security's overall financial picture? And what does that mean for benefit cuts down the line? It's a very tricky thing, and I do not envy lawmakers who have to make these decisions. And Jeff, to be clear, there's a push to not only end taxes on Social Security benefits, but also to change the way Social Security COLAs are calculated. That's a whole other issue because the reality is that the formula that's used now is not very beneficial to seniors. It really does not very accurately capture the costs that seniors specifically tend to incur. So, lawmakers really have their work cut out for them in the coming years with regard to Social Security. Snyder: They certainly do, Maurie. We've got a new Congress, a new president. Hey, look, they can't kick the can down the road too much longer because they're going to have to deal with other potential challenges. Maurie, it's always great to see you. Expert Analysis, as always. Thanks so much for joining us, and we look forward to having you back on the program again very soon. Backman: That's it. Snyder: And don't forget to subscribe to our daily newsletter, The Morning Pulse, for all the news in one place. Details, of course, at our website. And we're back again tomorrow for another edition of BRN. Until then, I'm Jeff Snyder. Stay safe, keep on saving, and don't forget, roll with the changes. Related: Jean Chatzky shares retirement tips on Social Security, Medicare The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
