Surging violence in Sahel rings alarm bells
The three Sahel states' military juntas, who had pledged during the coups that brought them to power to make security a priority, are struggling to contain the advance of extremists, who are threatening more than ever neighboring countries on the west African coast.
The last few weeks have been particularly deadly in the Sahel.
Several hundred soldiers have been killed in various attacks.
'The global vision of regional terrorism is changing. There is an ideological aspect, but also an ethnic one,' said Lassina Diarra of the International Counter-Terrorism Academy in Jacqueville, Ivory Coast.
'Extremist leaders declared in March their intent to intensify attacks against national armies to prevent a genocide against the Fulani community.'
Military violence targeting civilians — particularly the Fulani, often singled out in the Sahel region and accused of feeding the extremists' ranks — 'has exacerbated grievances and played into extremists' narratives,' said the Soufan Center think tank in a brief.
It also highlighted 'a broader strategy to degrade public confidence in state forces, boost recruitment.'
'There is also a question of competition for territory,' Diarra added.
The capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso 'are surrounded,' said Diarra.
For Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi, it is important to remain cautious of 'catastrophic' predictions.
The extremists' 'main advantage is their mobility and ability to move and blend with populations,' he said.
'In Burkina Faso, we cannot rule out a Somalia-like scenario, with a capital that resists while the rest of the country is out of control,' said a Western military source.
The juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger came to power through coups between 2020 and 2023 and are now united in a confederation, the Alliance of Sahel States.
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