
Pemex Bonds Surge as Mexico Mandates Debt Deal to Support It
The offering, announced in a filing Tuesday, will consist of a dollar-denominated debt maturing August 2030, in the form of amortizing pre-capitalized securities, or P-Caps, a type instrument used in asset-backed finance.
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What an Elevated CAPE Ratio Means for Stocks
Since we specialize in options here at Schaeffer's Investment Research, I usually focus on technical analysis, sentiment gauges, and seasonal patterns. These types of indicators lend themselves to shorter term time frames. This week, I'm shifting gears a bit and examining the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Specifically, I'm looking at the Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) Ratio. This metric calculates the P/E ratio of S&P 500 stocks while smoothing out earnings by examining the past ten years and adjusting them for inflation. The chart below shows the current CAPE Ratio of about 38 is extremely high. We have the data since 1928 and the only two times that it was higher than now was in the late 1990's, just before the tech bubble popped and for a brief period in 2021. Next, let's see how the S&P 500 has performed given the reading on the CAPE Ratio. S&P 500 Returns & CAPE Ratio The tables below summarize S&P 500 returns of various timeframes based on the level of the CAPE Ratio. The returns are annualized, which makes the figures, especially at longer timeframes, more intuitive. For reference, since 1928, the average one-year return of the S&P 500 is about 8%. So that's a good benchmark for comparison for each timeframe. The first table shows how stocks performed with the CAPE Ratio above 25, our current situation. The second table shows how stocks performed at the other extreme, when the CAPE Ratio was below 12. An elevated CAPE Ratio has typically led to an underperforming stock market. At longer term timeframes, the difference has been large. With the CAPE Ratio above 25, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 6.6% over the next year with 69% of the returns positive. However, when the CAPE Ratio was below 12, the average return was 15.4% with 80% of the returns positive. Buy and hold investors should be nervous about the long-term results. With the CAPE Ratio elevated, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 4.2% per year with 53% of the returns positive. When the CAPE Ratio was below 12, the five-year annualized return was 11% and, amazingly, every single one of the returns was positive. The last time we saw a reading below 12, however, was 1986. For completeness, here is a table showing S&P 500 returns with the CAPE Ratio between 12 and 25. Interestingly, the index has performed better all the way out to two years with the CAPE Ratio above 25 compared to when the ratio was between 12 and 25. It's long term investors with time horizons of at least five years who might want to lower expectations. Implications The data above shows a high CAPE Ratio has led to a significantly underperforming stock market over the next several years. This should make buy and hold investors nervous. As options traders, we are less affected, and this shows up in the data. With the CAPE Ratio above 25, the S&P 500 has performed better or just as well compared to when the ratio was at more moderate levels as far out as the next two years. Sign in to access your portfolio
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New Money Market ETF Draws $2.1B in First Week
A new money market ETF just launched, and it's already making waves. The Simplify Government Money Market ETF (SBIL) amassed $2.1 billion in assets under management in its first week of trading, a rare feat for a freshly launched fund. The ETF began trading on July 14 and is part of a small but growing group of money market ETFs built specifically to comply with Rule 2a-7 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the same rule that governs traditional money market mutual funds. Unlike classic money market funds, which are priced once daily and maintain a constant $1 net asset value (NAV), SBIL has a floating NAV and trades intraday like any other ETF. That's a key benefit for institutional and retail investors alike, allowing them to move in and out of positions throughout the day without waiting for end-of-day pricing. SBIL charges an expense ratio of 0.15%. SBIL Part of a Broader Trend SBIL's debut comes amid surging demand for ultra-short-term bond ETFs and cash-like strategies more broadly. While technically labeled a money market ETF, SBIL isn't radically different from other popular ultra-short Treasury ETFs like the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) or the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL). These funds invest in high-quality debt with very short maturities—typically under three months—resulting in minimal interest-rate risk and essentially no credit risk. While SGOV and BIL hold only Treasurys, money market ETFs like SBIL adhere to 2a-7 requirements, which enforce strict rules around maturity, liquidity and credit quality. In practice, the differences are mostly technical. To investors, they all serve as short-term, cash-like vehicles. A Budding Subcategory SBIL joins a short list of true money market ETFs launched in the past year. The first was the Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF (MMKT), which debuted in 2024. Since then, BlackRock Inc. (BLK) has entered the space with the iShares Government Money Market ETF (GMMF) and the iShares Prime Money Market ETF (PMMF). SBIL is by far the largest ETF in the money market ETF category, though the aforementioned SGOV and BIL dominate the broader ultra-short-term bond ETF space. SGOV recently became the first such ETF to cross $50 billion in | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
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When will my benefits be paid by the DWP over August bank holiday?
With the August bank holiday around the corner, there may be some changes to payment dates for anyone claiming benefits. Here's what you need to know if your payment date is expected around 25 August. What benefits are affected? These date changes will be the case if you claim universal credit, carer's allowance, personal independence payments (PIP) or pension credit — as well as the state pension. The full list of the benefits can be found below. Attendance allowance Carer's allowance Employment support allowance (ESA) Income support Jobseeker's allowance (JSA) Pension credit Personal independence payment (PIP) State pension Universal credit What date should I expect my payments? If your payment date is normally Monday, 25 August 2025, you will receive your payment a little earlier on the previous working day, Friday 22 August 2025. Your payment date will return to normal in September. Why are my benefits being paid early? As the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) website states, if your benefit payment date is on a weekend or a bank holiday you'll usually be paid on the working day before. This is because government workers and phone lines will not be staffed — for the most part — over the bank holiday period. In some cases, this is also done to assist people with any extra costs they are facing over holidays like Christmas. What other bank holidays do I need to bear in mind? Want to make a note of the rest of the benefits payment date clashes expected this year? They're listed below. England and Wales Monday, 25 August 2025 — Summer Bank Holiday Thursday, 25 December 2025 — Christmas Day Friday, 26 December 2025 — Boxing Day Scotland Monday, 25 August 2025 — Summer Bank Holiday Monday, 1 December 2025 — St Andrew's Day (substitute day) Thursday, 25 December 2025 — Christmas Day Friday, 26 December 2025 — Boxing Day Northern Ireland Monday, 25 August 2025 — Summer Bank Holiday Thursday, 25 December 2025 — Christmas Day Friday, 26 December 2025 — Boxing Day What do I do if my benefit payments are missing? If your expected payment date is correct and the funds are missing, you should contact the following relevant helpline: Universal credit: Use your online account or call the helpline on 0800 328 5644 PIP: Contact the PIP enquiry line on 0800 121 4433