New poll shows Reform UK's chances of winning Welsh election, and it's not good news for Labour
Wales' First Minister Eluned Morgan has said she 'wouldn't touch Reform with a barge pole'
Nigel Farage has a negative approval rating, but is more popular than Eluned Morgan
(Image: PA )
A third consecutive poll has shown Labour is projected to come behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru at next May's Senedd election. This latest poll puts Labour 5% up on previous estimates of 18% but the poll, by More in Common for Sky News is the second to project Reform would be the biggest party in the Senedd.
In terms of Senedd voting intention, the poll shows Reform in the lead with 28% of the vote, followed closely by Plaid Cymru, on 26%. Labour is third with 23%. The Conservatives would go from being the official opposition in the Senedd to having 10% of the vote.
The polling, of 883 people carried out between June 18 and July 3, shows less than half (48%) of Labour's 2024 voters would back the party in a Senedd election if it were held today. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
Their largest losses for Labour are to Plaid Cymru (15%), followed by Reform(11%). However, a significant proportion of Labour's 2024 voters (13%) are undecided about how they would vote in a Senedd election.
A YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales poll in May put Labour in third and Plaid top. A different poll, by Find Out Now, put Reform UK top.
When the voting intention question were asked about a Westminster general election, Labour's vote share has also collapsed but with voters turning to Reform UK, not Plaid Cymru.
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That poll puts Reform in the lead with 33% of the vote, Labour with 20% and Plaid with 16%. The Conservatives, who were wiped out at the last general election, have 12% of the vote.
In terms of how people view the party leaders in Wales. As in England and Scotland, every major politician and party has a negative approval rating but the worst news is for Reform and Plaid Cymru.
While Reform doesn't yet have a Welsh leader, Nigel Farage has a net approval of -7, as does Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.
Conservative group leader Darren Millar does better than his Westminster counterpart Kemi Badenoch, with his net approval rating of -13, significantly higher than Ms Badnenoch's -27.
However First Minister Eluned Morgan has an approval rating of -18. It is higher than Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister's who has an approval of -44.
Keir Starmer is the least popular party leader among the Welsh public with just 17% of those polled in Wales thinking he is doing a good job. However, 61% think he's doing a bad job.
In an interview with Sky News' Beth Rigby the First Minister has repeated that her party is taking the threat from Reform UK "seriously".
Asked if she and other members of the "political class" are to blame for voters turning away from Labour, the First Minister accepted there was a "lot to do" to get voters back.
"What I won't be doing in Wales is chasing reform down a path. Where we can try and out Reform, Reform. I'm not interested in that, because those aren't my values. Not interested in it. So what we'll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together," she said.
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Ms Morgan said: "There is a possibility that they could be the largest party, and that is something that is really concerning."
However, asked if she would do a coalition deal with Reform UK, she responded: "I wouldn't touch reform with a barge pole."
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