Sensex set to hit 115,836 by FY28 on earnings momentum: Ventura
could surge to 115,836 by fiscal 2028 in a bullish scenario, supported by steady
earnings growth
and macroeconomic resilience, according to
Ventura Securities
. The brokerage forecasted the
Nifty
50 climbing to 43,876 over the same period, with a projected FY28 earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate of 12-14%.
Ventura valued the Indian benchmarks at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21 times under a bull case and 19 times under a bear case. The brokerage pegged Sensex EPS at 5,516 and Nifty 50 EPS at 2,089 by FY28. In its bear case projection, Ventura expects Sensex to touch 104,804 and Nifty 50 to reach 39,697.
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Sectoral strength drives Q1 momentum
As of mid-Q1FY26, 159 companies have reported results showing broad-based growth. Engineering, manufacturing and services sectors led the gains, while consumption, commodities and pharma delivered steady performances. Positive earnings surprises in BFSI, IT, healthcare and logistics point to a resilient corporate earnings season.
India remains the 'world's most promising
investment
destination,' Ventura said, citing GDP growth of 6.5%, moderate debt levels with an 80% debt-to-GDP ratio, and stable bond yields. The brokerage noted that while advanced economies like the U.S. and Japan grapple with high debt and slowing growth, India's demographic advantage and structural reforms make it a magnet for global capital.
'In the last 10 years, Indian economy has demonstrated resilience and clocked highest GDP growth as a large economy despite global headwinds of NBFC crisis, Covid 19, Russia-Ukraine war and the recent uncertainty on Trump tariff,' said Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura. 'The risk mitigation influencers will outweigh the current challenges which will usher Indian GDP growth to 7.3% by FY30(E).'
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Long-term fundamentals and risks
Ventura highlighted India's ability to withstand past economic shocks, from demonetization and GST rollout to the NBFC crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategic developments such as the Andaman oil discovery, gold monetization initiatives and a multipronged national security strategy are expected to bolster India's long-term fundamentals.
While challenges persist, Ventura said it believes the market has yet to fully price in these structural shifts. Growing forex reserves, sustainable debt levels and the potential for lower long-term interest rates point to a more favourable investment environment in the years ahead.
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