Anthony Albanese's experience showed, but a truly terrible Trump-inspired Coalition campaign helped

The Guardian

03-05-2025

Just as Australians were returning from the calm of summer holidays, Labor and the Coalition both held their breath as Donald Trump took the presidential oath of office in Washington.
With a federal election year under way and the Albanese government desperate to restart Labor's flagging political prospects, Trump's victory had emboldened conservatives in the Coalition and right-wing minor parties. Along with sections of the Australia media, they pushed for a version of Trump's unapologetic politics here.
Sensing a shift to the right across the electorate, Peter Dutton and the Coalition finalised policies to slash the federal public service and root out 'woke' ideology in schools and social policy. They fine tuned messages about the Indigenous welcome to country and accused Labor of dangerous overreach in the transition to renewable energy.
But, despite predictions of an inevitable slide into minority for Labor, Anthony Albanese's remarkable election victory showed voters aren't interested in appeals to the fringes. Instead, Australians were eager to reward a focus on the mainstream.
For months, Labor's national secretary Paul Erickson had been building an election campaign around cost-of-living assistance and better Medicare services, encouraging Albanese to talk up urgent care medical clinics and cheaper childcare and Tafe course.
While the Coalition sought to demonise public servants supposedly slacking off in Canberra and struggled to explain Dutton's plan to build seven nuclear power plants, Labor smashed them for voting against household payments and tax cuts announced in March budget. The unpopular work from home policy, which led too many voters to believe their own workplace flexibility was under threat, will be remembered as one of the great stinkers of Australian election campaigning.
Like John Howard before him, the times look like they suit Albanese. Few leaders will get as lucky, in the form of a truly terrible opposition campaign.
But his experience showed as well. Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement had loomed as a risk to Albanese's reelection bid, but he successfully managed the hit, criticising Trump's plans and pledging to negotiate a better deal for exporters once he was back in The Lodge.
As Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency slashed and burned, Labor played havoc with Dutton's approval rating, deriding him as 'Dogey Dutton' and accusing the Liberals of harbouring even more radical ideas. The now former member for Dickson wasn't helped by frontbencher Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and her promise to 'make Australia great again.'
Like the undecided voter who asked Albanese and Dutton how they would protect Australia from Trump's erratic decision making in the first leader's debate on April 10, fear of an unstable world was front-of-mind around the country.
Albanese successfully argued calm leadership was Australia's best approach to the unpredictability the US president has cultivated as his personal calling card. His unflashy approach to the job might be regarded as a key asset.
Albanese's victory speech alluded to Dutton's flirtation with the MAGA approach. He told the Labor faithful his government would continue to choose an Australian way forward. One of his biggest cheers came as he promised to continue to recognise Indigenous heritage and leadership every day in the job.
The politics of division might be front of mind for the Coalition as they pick up the pieces. Queensland senator James McGrath, hardly a moderate in the joint party room, had the unenviable task of explaining the historic loss on the ABC's broadcast.
He warned the Coalition should be firmly in the centre right, and avoid importing division and distrust. 'We must resist that path [and] focus on where middle Australia is,' he said.
That's where the voters are too. Just ask Labor.