The establishment is already plotting the destruction of a Reform government
Much of the establishment mobilised against Brexit, and these same organisations view Reform with greater horror. Quite soon, the establishment will send signals it is moving into direct confrontation with Reform.
The public will then realise that a Reform government will lead to political combat on a scale that dwarfs post-Brexit fighting. The big question is whether voters will stomach another decade of political stasis and societal division.
Talking about 'the establishment' can make you sound like an ancient pub bore or a modern bedroom conspiracy theorist. Maybe it is the wrong word, but I refer to those groups which define modern politics: the main political parties; the BBC; the universities; the judiciary and legal profession; the civil service; the country's biggest businesses; and the monarchy. Reform can expect hostility from each of them.
The hostility of mainstream parties is to be expected. It has made no difference to date because of their collective poor performance in government. Failed politicians struggle to persuade anyone of anything.
Hostility from the BBC and universities can similarly be expected but will also likely have little impact. Amongst those considering a Reform vote, the BBC has long ceased to have relevance and many doubt its political independence. Universities, for this group of voters, are even less relevant.
Other parts of the establishment are potentially much more problematic for Reform. In short order, we should expect senior civil servants to reveal they are 'wargaming' a Reform victory, with the impact on the economy and national security in mind. The implication being that a major shock to Britain's prosperity and standing in the world will follow a Reform win.
We will surely also hear from junior civil servants in the most obviously exposed government departments – the Home Office, the Ministry of Justice, and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office – suggesting they will not implement Reform policies.
Incidentally, outside of the establishment, the same dynamic is likely in the NHS over time. Senior leaders will express concern about their ability to run the NHS with lower levels of immigration. Junior NHS staff will talk about the development of a climate of fear in Britain and will imply strikes.
The judiciary and legal profession would once have retained a dignified silence, but there is no prospect of that. KCs regularly campaign online using the most intemperate language. Extraordinarily, even some judges make their political views on such matters known.
Collectively, the judiciary and legal profession will warn that Reform plans are illegal, unworkable and immoral. Much nearer the time, if it looks like a Farage government is possible, senior business leaders will warn about the impact of a restriction of visas on growth, and others will suggest investment will flee Britain. As with the civil service, they will talk about the prospect of a re-run of a Truss government.
And, on the eve of an election, if Reform look set for power, it is easy to imagine the King suggesting everyone should vote with tolerance in mind. This will be seen as a rebuke to Farage; even a raised eyebrow from the King can splash news for days.
In a climate of political failure, Nigel Farage can easily brush aside attacks from Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch. He has done this effectively to date.
But it will be much more difficult to brush off warnings that his economic plans are worrying the Treasury and the markets; or that his immigration plans will lead to strikes that will cost people their place in the queue for NHS care; or that his proposed changes to human rights laws will see courts grind to a halt; or that his entire programme is generally un-British.
All Reform can do is to stay ruthlessly focused on policies they know carry overwhelming public support – and to junk those policies which do it for a small number of activists but leave the public cold. At its most basic, that means talking about border control and not net zero.
You have to doubt Reform will survive such an onslaught, but the public is in a revolutionary mood.
James Frayne is a political consultant
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