PSX retreats from record on profit-taking
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a turbulent session on Thursday, where the benchmark KSE-100 index hit a record intra-day high at 126,718 before reversing course to close modestly lower.
The day saw intense swings, reflecting both optimism fuelled by post-budget clarity and renewed pressure from geopolitical tensions.
Early gains were supported by improved investor sentiment, driven by the budget announcement, robust remittances and monetary policy expectations. However, the rally lost steam as the session progressed, with profit-taking in overheated stocks and geopolitical uncertainty, surrounding the Middle East, undermining sentiment.
Global equity selloffs, a slump in crude oil prices and a weakening rupee added to investor concerns.
Arif Habib Corp MD Ahsan Mehanti stated that stocks closed under pressure on geopolitical uncertainty and post-budget profit-taking in overbought shares. "The rout in global equities on Middle East tensions, a slump in international crude oil prices and a weak rupee on contracting exports were among the key factors behind bearish close of the market," he added.
At the end of trading, the benchmark KSE-100 index lost 259.56 points, or 0.21%, and settled at 124,093.12.
KTrade Securities noted that the bourse experienced a volatile session as the KSE-100 index fluctuated between the high of 126,718 and low of 123,846, ultimately closing down 0.21% at 124,093.
Initial gains were driven by positive market sentiment following the FY26 budget, perceived as favourable for capital markets. However, rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the US prompted heavy profit-taking later in the day, it said.
Negative contribution mainly came from sectors such as investment banks, oil and gas, and fertiliser, where notable contractions were seen in Engro Holdings, Fauji Fertiliser, Pakistan Petroleum and OGDC.
Cement stocks saw strong buying before profit-taking set in. Given the ongoing regional uncertainties, the market outlook is likely to remain cautious, added KTrade.
Arif Habib Limited (AHL) Deputy Head of Trading Ali Najib wrote that the PSX witnessed a dramatic session, which led to a lower close for the KSE-100 index after hitting a record intra-day high.
The market opened strong, building on the previous session's bullish momentum and breaking key psychological levels of 125,000 and 126,000. However, profit-taking in the latter half erased gains and dragged the index into the negative territory.
The pullback comes after several sessions of aggressive rallying, largely driven by improved macroeconomic indicators and declining cut-off yields in the T-bill auction, Najib said.
Topline Securities mentioned in its review that the stock market ended on a negative note, weighed down by cautious investor sentiment and profit-taking. It attributed the downtrend largely to declines in shares of Engro Holdings, Fauji Fertiliser, Pakistan Petroleum, OGDC and Bank Alfalah, which erased 401 points from the index.
In contrast, support came from Pakgen Power, United Bank, Bank AL Habib, Lucky Cement and DG Khan Cement, which added 347 points.
JS Global analyst Mubashir Anis Naviwala said that the index hit a high of 126,718 before profit-taking dragged it down by 260 points. The analyst advised investors to watch for key support levels and use dips to accumulate stocks with focus on fertiliser, cement and banking sectors for near-term opportunities.
Overall trading volumes decreased to 1.02 billion shares compared with Wednesday's tally of 1.04 billion. The value of shares traded was Rs50.5 billion. Shares of 474 companies were traded. Of these, 170 stocks closed higher, 270 fell and 34 remained unchanged.
Sui Southern Gas Company was the volume leader with trading in 55.9 million shares, rising Rs0.78 to close at Rs41.92. It was followed by Fauji Cement with 50.6 million shares, gaining Rs0.49 to close at Rs47.36 and WorldCall Telecom with 49.3 million shares, falling Rs0.08 to close at Rs1.37. Foreign investors sold shares worth Rs685.8 million, the National Clearing Company reported.
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Share of profit from UBL, despite posting 74.64 percent growth in 2023, couldn't offset the huge finance cost which dampened the bottomline growth to 16.14 percent in 2023. Net profit stood at Rs.11,891.698 million in 2023 with NP margin of 13.55 percent. EPS grew to Rs.19.94 in 2023. In 2024, BWCL posted 18.44 percent year-on-year growth in its topline which clocked in at Rs.103,922.26 million. During the year, the volume of the overall cement industry dwindled by 5 percent to clock in at 38.2 million tons. This was due to depressed politico-economic backdrop of the country. The cement sector found its safe haven in the export sales, which mounted to 54 percent to clock in at 7.1 million tons. This was due to Pak Rupee depreciation which made the Pakistani cement attractive to the international buyers. Talking about BWCL, it registered 6 percent higher sales volume during the year which was recorded at 6.96 million tons in 2024. This was due to the instigation of two new manufacturing lines at Hattar and Mianwali. Improved volumes coupled with increased selling prices enabled the company to record 17.98 percent higher gross profit in 2024 with GP margin staying intact at 31 percent. Distribution expense surged by 35 percent in 2024 on account of higher freight & handling charges mainly due to improved export volumes. Administrative expense escalated by 52.80 percent in 2024 due to higher payroll expense. This was despite the fact that BWCL streamlined its workforce from 2128 employees in 2023 to 1979 employees in 2024. Other expense ticked up by 14 percent in 2024 due to increased provisioning done for WWF. Other income deteriorated by 52 percent in 2024 due to considerably thinner income recognized on short-term investment and lower gain recorded on the disposal of property, plant & equipment. BWCL recorded 12.36 percent uptick in operating profit in 2024 with OP margin ticking down to 27.80 percent. Although the company discharged a considerable portion of its external borrowings in 2024, high discount rate resulted in 64.21 percent elevated finance cost in 2024. Share of profit of equity accounted investee grew by 26.50 percent in 2024 particularly on the back of profit from UBL. Net profit improved by 15.78 percent to clock in at Rs.13,768.575 million in 2024 with EPS of Rs.23.09 and NP margin of 13.25 percent. Recent Performance (9MFY25) During the period under review, BWCL's net sales ticked up by 2.42 percent to clock in at Rs.81,999.478 million. Competitive international pricing and increased global demand led to 28.1 percent higher export volumes of the local industry, which clocked in at 6.5 million tons. Conversely, local sales of the overall cement industry dipped by 6.6 percent to clock in at 27.5 million tons due to higher interest rates, taxes and construction cost. BWCL also recorded 4.5 percent dip in its sales volume which clocked in at 5.17 million tons in 9MFY25. Cost of sales plummeted by 5.11 percent due to depressed dispatches as well as the company's increasing inclination towards the use of alternate energy. However, with price optimization, the company was able to drive its gross profit up by 20.35 percent in 9MFY25 with GP margin recorded at 34.73 percent versus GP margin of 29.56 percent posted in 9MFY24. Distribution and administrative expense mounted by 26.52 percent and 32.96 percent respectively in 9MFY25 due to inflationary pressure. Higher profit related provisioning appears to be the cause of 57.58 percent higher other expense recorded in 9MFY25. However, it was conveniently offset by 139.40 percent higher other income posted during the period. Operating profit picked up by 21.13 percent in 9MFY25 with OP margin clocking in at 31.50 percent versus OP margin of 26.63 percent recorded during the same period last year. Monetary easing coupled with lower outstanding liabilities at the end of the period resulted in 26.42 percent decline in finance cost in 9MFY25. Finance cost was offset by 113.11 percent progress exhibited by the share of profit of equity accounted investee in 9MFY25. BWCL's net profit clocked in at Rs.17,541.45 million in 9MFY25, up 69.98 percent year-on-year. This translated into EPS of Rs.29.42 in 9MFY25 versus EPS of Rs.17.31 recorded in 9MFY24. NP margin also posted a phenomenal growth from 12.89 percent in 9MFY24 to 21.39 percent in 9MFY25. Future Outlook With the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, construction activity is expected to pick up. However, sustained period of high inflation and discount rate coupled with higher taxation, energy cost and duties will suppress the margins as many cement companies may not be able to pass on the onus of cost hike to their customers owing to fierce competition in the industry. However, since BWCL is one of the lowest cost producers, it may be able to sustain its margins and profitability.
