A new ‘terror pot' that may be kept boiling for now

Mint

7 hours ago

The 12-day aerial duel between Iran and Israel may have paused, but the region is far from being peaceful. And statements made by the two leaders key to resolving the crisis—US President Donald Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—leave little room for hopes of a quick resolution. On Friday, Trump said that if Iran continued with its uranium enrichment programme, America will bomb it again. A day before, Khamenei had vowed that if America attacked Iran again, it should be prepared to face severe punishment. Iran is now hell-bent on pursuing its nuclear plans.
Israel had attacked Iran claiming that the latter was close to developing a nuclear bomb and would soon become a permanent threat to its existence. It also said the Khamenei regime was unpopular and, in effect, an organization of terrorists filled with religious hatred.
America jumped into this conflict with no moral or strategic rationale. And what did the 12-day conflict achieve? Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iran still has 400kg of enriched uranium, which can be converted into nuclear weapons in a few weeks. As for Khamenei, he's firmly in the saddle and has chosen his successor. Both Iran and Israel have made claims of victory, but nobody knows the real extent of losses on either side.
Also read | Testimony to the enduring spirit of Indian democracy
Iran's nuclear programme was tightly controlled under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and it was in talks with the US to further strengthen it. In fact, Israel's aerial assault on Iran happened just two days before a scheduled round of talks in the direction.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly said that Iran had not yet acquired the capability to build a nuclear bomb. However, it did little to deter Israel and America from acting against Iran. This means something else is at play here. Could it be that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is becoming increasingly unpopular at home over the military action in Gaza, orchestrated it for a new lease of life from a fresh conflict? Israel goes to polls next year and a new wave of muscular nationalism is needed to distract people from Gaza's exhausting campaign. It seems Netanyahu has succeeded in this for now.
Part of the blame lies with Iran, too. After the Islamic Revolution, it had installed a clock that it said shows a countdown to the end of Israel. Who would tolerate such senseless hatred?
Also read | A nation falling for the lure of majoritarianism
The conflict has again laid bare America's deceit. In the 1980s, Iran and Iraq were locked in a long, bloody border conflict that lasted years. America and its Western allies then sided with Iraq and armed it to the teeth. Vaults of destructive weapons were opened for Saddam Hussein until he delivered on bleeding Iran. What America did to Iraq in the first and second Gulf Wars later is known to all.
Before attacking Iraq for the second time, the US conducted a witch hunt claiming Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, but After removing Saddam, international inspectors and the media found it to be a grand lie. The same kind of disinformation may be playing out in the case of Iran today.
Will this stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons? Certainly not. Tehran has now threatened to quit the NPT and has publicly vowed to continue with its nuclear programme. It seems the US and Israel are dealing with a hydra-headed monster.
If military operations against Iran resume, chances are that other Gulf countries would get sucked into the conflict. Iran's attack on American bases in Qatar and Iraq on Monday night were seen as an attack not just on America but also on the sovereignty of those countries. Qatar even vowed revenge.
Also read | Firm and focused leadership keeps India on course
Another important aspect is the attitude China and Russia have adopted towards this crisis. They overtly protested against the aggression, and covertly worked towards a ceasefire. A day before Trump announced the ceasefire, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had been in Moscow. He had a long chat with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and met President Vladimir Putin. It would be better if China, Russia and the US kept the situation in control. But fresh statements by Khamenei and Trump are making global leaders and the population apprehensive.
It's certain that after Gaza and Ukraine, Iran is the latest 'terror pot" that may be kept boiling for some time now.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.