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Yahoo
13 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Fed rate cuts could spark a new stock bubble, SocGen says. Here's the level to watch in the S&P 500.
US stocks risk entering a bubble in the coming months, SocGen strategists say. Fed rate cuts risk adding further fuel to an already record-setting rally in stocks. The bank is eying a key level for the benchmark index that would signal the risk of a bubble. The market sees about an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut in September — but doing so could put the stock market on track to enter bubble territory in the coming months. That's according to strategists at Société Générale, who said they saw the possibility that the S&P 500 becomes overheated sometime in the next year. The level of the S&P 500 they're warning investors to look out for is 7,500. That implies a 19% gain for the benchmark index, and would signal that the speculative mania has reached bubble proportions. Here's what they're eyeing. 1) Fed rate cuts. Investors are widely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates, with the odds of a September rate cut spiking after the July jobs report was unexpectedly weak last Friday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market-priced probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month has jumped to 87%, up from 63% a week ago. "Gradual rate cutting could add to the positive effect of cyclical data, while aggressive Fed rate cuts to the terminal rate could drive a market valuation bubble," strategists wrote. 2) Bullish runway. Fed rate cuts are also adding to an already-positive environment for stocks, strategists said, pointing to factors like higher growth, healthy debt-taking in the private sector, and corporate activities improving from lows earlier in the business cycle. "Strong returns from the S&P 500 over the past three months have borne out our US outlook, crisis of confidence is short-term," strategists wrote. The S&P 500 reaching 7,500 next year would imply valuations similar to levels seen during the peak of the dot-com bubble, according to SocGen's analysis. The bank's base case is for the S&P 500 to land around 6,900 by the end of next year, implying a 9% gain from current levels. Chatter about a potential stock market bubble has been percolating around Wall Street in recent months, given the S&P 500's record-breaking rally. Stocks have quickly rebounded since bottoming on April 8 following Trump's tariff announcements, with the S&P 500 up 28% since then. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data


Bloomberg
33 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
S&P 500 Rallies Since May as Traders Sift Through Results
Bloomberg Television brings you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before and after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's guests are BlackRock's Stephen Laipply, EQT's Toby Rice, DA Davidson & Co's Gil Luria, Morgan Stanley's Michael Zezas, Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan, Seaport Research Partners' Aaron Kessler, Jefferies' Brent Thill, Waze's Uri Levine, The Institute For Advanced Study's Alondra Nelson. (Source: Bloomberg)


CNBC
36 minutes ago
- CNBC
Asia markets set to open mixed after Trump vows to significantly raise tariffs on India
Bombay Gate Gateway of India, Mumbai Arutthaphon Poolsawasd | Moment | Getty Images Asia-Pacific markets are expected to open mixed after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Indian exports to the country significantly. "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social. "They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA," he continued. Happy Tuesday from Singapore. Asia markets are poised for a mixed open. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was set to start the day higher with futures tied to the benchmark at 8,701, compared with its last close of 8,663.70. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 was set to open higher, with the futures contract in Osaka last traded at 40,610 against the index's last close of 40,290.70. However, futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index stood at 24,708 pointing to a weaker open compared with the HSI's last close of 24,733.45. — Lee Ying Shan All the three major averages soared into the green on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recouping its losses from Friday's session. The blue-chip index climbed 585.06 points, or 1.34%, to finish the day at 44,173.64. Additionally, the broad market S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rocketed higher by 1.47% and 1.95%, ending at 6,329.94 and 21,053.58, respectively. — Sean Conlon