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New Indian Express
a day ago
- New Indian Express
Tariff tantrums have economists betting RBI biting rate-cut bullet again
MUMBAI: The 25% export duty shocker from the US effective August 7, which if not reversed to a reasonable level may shave off 20-30 bps from this year's growth, has the Mint Road-watchers divided with some calling for a monetary support given the below-target inflation prints while some others calling for caution till the tariff talks are completed. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy committee begins its bimonthly meeting on Monday and the policy decisions will be announced on Wednesday. The RBI has already cut the policy repo rate by a 100 bps since February with the last meeting delivering an unconventional 50 bps to 5.5%. On July 30, US president Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a 25% flat tariffs on Indian goods along with an unspecified additional penalty on India's energy and military purchases from Russia. The announcement came as a shocker to New Delhi as five rounds of trade talks have been completed and the sixth round is slated for August 25 in the Capital. What was more shocking was that the new tariffs are much more than anticipated and leave Indian goods at a great disadvantage to many of its market rivals. While economists at British brokerage Barclays see the tariff impact to shave 30 bps off GDP this fiscal—RBI has pegged it at 6.5% this fiscal, foreign agencies like the IMF and the Asian Development Bank have pegged it marginally lower at 6.4% and 6.5% respectively, domestic rating agency Icra and Japanese brokerage Nomura have pegged it at 20 bps bringing down growth to 6% this year.
Mint
2 days ago
- Mint
Will Trump's tariff war push India closer to Russia and China?
Trump 2.0 was expected to be good for India. But after early promise, ties have unexpectedly soured. Mint examines the sudden reversal, what India should do next, and whether recent developments could strengthen the Russia-India-China (RIC) axis. 1. Has the India-US relationship hit a low? Yes. On 27 June, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from India, along with an unspecified penalty for New Delhi's continued defence and energy trade with Russia. His rhetoric stung even more than the tariffs. Trump accused India of having some of the 'highest tariffs in the world" and 'the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers." The next day, he escalated further, saying that Russia and India 'can take their dead economies down together." Simultaneously, Trump is cosying up to Pakistan, finalizing a trade deal with Islamabad last week. 2. What triggered Trump's anger? Experts point to several factors. India's reluctance to open up its agriculture sector during trade talks has frustrated Trump. Some believe that the tariff hike may be a pressure tactic to force broader market access. His ire over India's energy and defence ties with Russia is also strategic: it's seen as part of a larger bid to pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Trump, some believe, now realizes he was outplayed by Putin. He is also suspicious of India's growing alignment with BRICS, which he views as an anti-Western bloc. He fears BRICS could start a common currency that could rival or replace the US dollar as the standard currency. Another, more personal factor: India did not credit Trump for helping de-escalate the brief India-Pakistan conflict earlier this year. Pakistan, in contrast, publicly acknowledged his role. Trump is reportedly miffed that India didn't nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. 3. How has India reacted? Though caught off guard by the sudden downturn in the bonhomie, India's response has been restrained. The government has said it will protect national interests while continuing bilateral trade negotiations in good faith. The Ministry of External Affairs emphasized that the India-US partnership is rooted in shared interests, democratic values, and strong people-to-people ties—and has weathered turbulence in the past. 4. Will Trump's actions push India close to the Russia-China axis? That would require a fundamental shift in India's foreign policy, but some experts don't rule it out. Trump has once again unsettled a friend (India) while courting an adversary (Pakistan), which has hit a nerve in New Delhi. Last week, China publicly backed a Russian proposal to revive the RIC trilateral mechanism, calling it crucial for regional and global stability. 5. Could a thaw in India-China ties help? Possibly. After the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, India-China relations froze. But recent months have seen attempts at normalization, including ministerial visits and a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in October 2024. 6. What should India do? Most foreign policy experts advise caution. India's ties with the US extend beyond Trump's presidency and should not be derailed by short-term volatility, they say. While a stable relationship with China is welcome, they caution that it remains a strategic rival. India, they add, must work to resolve trade irritants and ensure a mutually beneficial agreement with the US. It should reiterate its commitment to a multi-aligned foreign policy and emphasize its long-standing ties with Russia, even as Moscow's share in defence supplies has declined in recent years.
Mint
3 days ago
- Mint
Best of the Week: Power. Tariffs. Tensions. What's next for global trade?
Key export sectors such as textiles, auto parts, and food products were dealt a rude shock when US President Donald Trump slapped a 25% tariff—along with an additional 'penalty'—on Indian goods starting 7 August. But this isn't just about tariffs. It's about shifting alliances, rising economic nationalism, and a global order that's being reimagined in real time. That's why Mint is bringing together sharp global minds for a timely webinar: Because geoeconomics now drives geopolitics. And understanding this shift could help you make sense of everything from de-risking strategies to India's evolving equation with both the US and China. Can India and the US still find common ground on agriculture, tech, and digital rules? Or has this move reset the clock on 25 years of strategic engagement? Amb. Arun K. Singh, former Indian envoy to the US, with decades of high-stakes diplomatic experience. Ajay Srivastava, trade policy expert and founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Moderated by Elizabeth Roche, former foreign affairs editor at Mint and now a professor at Jindal School of International Affairs. Register now if you want to decode the new rules of power, trade, and global influence. India's $87 billion export engine to the US just hit a speed bump. US President Donald Trump's call for a 25% tariff on Indian goods has raised eyebrows—and concerns. Textiles, electronics, pharma, even auto parts—everything's in the crosshairs. Is this the return of a full-blown trade war or just political posturing? With over 75% of Indian exports at risk, and key sectors bracing for impact, the stakes are high. Can India negotiate its way out, or will exporters feel the heat? The 25 August trade talks may hold the answers. India's early trade deals? Not exactly blockbuster hits. With partners like ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, exports stagnated while imports surged. But India has learnt its lessons—and it shows. Recent pacts with the UAE and Australia are already yielding real returns. Now, the India-UK free trade agreement seems to be the boldest step yet. With smart tariff cuts, stronger services play, and mobility provisions, could this be the new blueprint? Is India finally turning the trade tide in its favour? Women are showing up—but not staying on. A new report by Udaiti Foundation and Quess Corp reveals that 52% of women in India's blue- and grey-collar workforce plan to exit within a year. Why? Low pay, poor work culture, safety concerns, and long, unsafe commutes top the list. Even as their numbers double, retention remains weak. What's pushing women out? And more importantly, what will bring them back in—and keep them there? With India's economy leaning on this workforce, creating jobs isn't enough. We need to make them worth staying for. TCS is letting go of 12,000 employees—mainly seniors—this year, citing AI disruption and slower growth. The message? India's IT giants are rebalancing. As clients demand cheaper deals and smarter tech, the people-heavy model is under stress. And TCS isn't alone—Wipro is testing language skills, HCL is trimming freshers. So, is AI really taking over—or is this just a reset for an evolving industry? Either way, tech talent will need more than just code to stay future-ready. Is the great Indian consumption story picking up pace again? Hindustan Unilever thinks so—and the numbers agree. After quarters of sluggish growth, HUL posted a strong 3% volume rise and an 8% jump in profit, riding on tax sops, easing inflation, and a monsoon boost. Urban and rural demand is inching up, new product bets are paying off, and optimism is back at the FMCG bellwether. But can this momentum last? If you've been waiting for signs of revival in India's consumer economy—this might just be it. Indian companies' profit pie is still heavily skewed towards its biggest firms, even though smaller listed firms made strong post-pandemic gains. A Mint analysis of 5,096 firms shows that the top 10% by revenue cornered over 90% of profits in 2024-25—unchanged for two years. While some sectors like textiles and hospitality saw smaller firms thrive, dominance by giants remains strong across others. The revival in mergers and acquisitions suggests the playing field could tilt further. This data-packed story, with rich charts and sector-level insights, examines whether India's small firms are losing ground again in a David vs Goliath battle. In Tiptur, Karnataka, a hen named Kaveri is laying the foundation for a new kind of egg economy. She's part of Akshayakalpa's cage-free, antibiotic-free farm, where eggs are premium, traceable, and sold with a promise of purity. Startups like Eggoz, Henfruit, and Farm Made are trying to turn eggs into branded health products, not just cheap protein. But with fragile supply chains and price-sensitive consumers, can this sunny-side-up revolution scale? Or will it remain a niche, yolk-tinted dream? Nayara Energy, one of India's top fuel retailers, recently had its Microsoft services suspended. Why? Microsoft interpreted EU sanctions against Nayara's Russian shareholder as reason enough to halt emails, team communications, and operations. Though services were restored in two days, the episode exposed a deeper fault line: how dependent critical businesses are on foreign tech firms. As firms increasingly run on cloud tools, this incident shows how easily geopolitics can trigger service cuts, even without clear legal mandates in India. This year's generous monsoon—8% above normal so far—has boosted kharif sowing across India, especially of rice and maize. Nearly 84% of the country has seen normal or excess rainfall, with major gains in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. This has led to a 13% jump in rice planting and 9% in maize, offering hope for stable food prices and a push toward ethanol production. However, farmers are steering away from oilseeds due to poor returns, raising questions about long-term crop diversity. Could the shift towards water-intensive crops and biofuel-linked grains come at the cost of sustainable farming and future food security? This monsoon, cities across India—from Patna and Delhi to Mumbai and Bengaluru—have been brought to their knees by flooding. The reasons are well known: clogged drains, haphazard construction, poor waste management, and chronic underfunding of city infrastructure. The deeper problem? India's municipalities are broke, dependent on state grants, with little ability to raise their own funds or fix core services. Waste-to-energy plants, revamped drainage, and better accounting exist, but require serious investment and planning. Municipal bonds were meant to help, but few cities can even qualify. As flooding becomes an annual urban ritual, the question is no longer why this happens but how long can India's cities survive this cycle of neglect? That's all for this week. I hope you have a pleasant weekend! If you have feedback, want to discuss food, movies and shows or have anything else to say about our journalism, write to me at or reply to this email. You can also write to feedback@
