World Cup 2026: Could co-host politics have an impact?
A year out from the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, host city Los Angeles is engulfed in protests related to the deportation of Mexicans and other minorities. Meanwhile, an ever-shifting trade war threatens relations between the three hosts and a travel ban will likely prevent some fans from attending.
While the whims of US President Donald Trump make predictions perilous, fans, players and national teams must already start to make plans for one of sport's biggest events, one secured in Trump's first term when relations between the three countries were much more harmonious.
The ongoing protests are an immediate safety concern for the Club World Cup in the US, with European champions Paris Saint-Germain set to meet Atletico Madrid in LA on the tournament's opening day on June 15.
LA will also host the first US game of the 2026 World Cup on June 12, a day after the tournament opens in Mexico.
Trump's travel ban, which came in to effect on Monday, bars citizens of Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen from entering the US. An exception was made for "any athlete or member of an athletic team, including coaches, persons performing a necessary support role, and immediate relatives, traveling for the World Cup, Olympics, or other major sporting event as determined by the secretary of state" but not for fans.
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Iran have already qualified for the World Cup, but currently fans would not be able to travel to support them in the US.
Trump sees opportunity in sport
The same is not yet true for citizens of Mexico and Canada. And for Andrew Zimbalist, professor emeritus in economics at Smith College in the US state of Massachusetts and author of "Circus Maximus: The Economic Gamble Behind Hosting the Olympics and the World Cup," putting on a good show to burnish his own reputation is likely to be at the forefront of Trump's mind.
"Mr. Trump has shown a willingness to make exceptions when there's pressure. And I think further that Trump cares. He's a sports fan. He cares about his international image. He cares about the attention that that will come to him when both the Club World Cup in 2025 and the real World Cup in 2026 happen. These are photo opportunities for Trump to bask in in the game's glory," he told DW, speaking ahead of the LA protests.
Zimbalist added that with Trump, things can always change quickly.
"There's a tremendous amount of tension and a tremendous amount of uncertainty about how Mr. Trump will behave, and we never know."
World Cup co-hosts Canada and Mexico were, along with China, the first countries targeted in the evolving tariff war that began soon after Trump took office. Zimbalist doesn't predict the uneasiness at the government level will have a significant impact on the tournament, arguing that there will be enough fans prepared to travel for games that any discouraged from doing so will not be noticeable.
He also believes that the relatively new leaders in Mexico — Claudia Sheinbaum, elected in October 2024 — and Canada — Mark Carney, elected in March — will not allow their countries to become marginalized.
"I think both with Carney in Canada and Sheinbaum in Mexico, that he has met his real enemy. These leaders are not bowing down to him, and they're both very, very smart, very well prepared, and at the moment, are popular in their countries.
And so they have the latitude to take on Trump," said Zimbalist.
Mexican fans uncertain on match travel
Nevertheless, for Mexican fans in particular, traveling across the border to World Cup, or indeed Club World Cup games this month, in the US is a fraught business.
"I don't feel afraid to go to the United States but it feels little bit like going to someone else's house where you are not welcome," said Alan, a Pachuca fan talking to DW ahead of his team's participation in the Club World Cup.
Other Pachuca fans complained that significant visa processing delays, some up to two years, meant they would have been unable to travel to support their team even without the current safety concerns.
"Appointments were delayed and then the president said that some Mexicans shouldn't go there, I think that has a big influence on why they're taking so long with the visas," said Axel.
"I would feel a little unsafe around the police and everything government-related and that side of the United States."
While demand for, and interest in, the World Cup will be on a different level to the revamped Club World Cup, which has proved controversial in some quarters, and stands may see some foreign nationals from Canada and Mexico, it does seem like political relations will have some impact on fans — even if the stands will be full.
Canada, Mexico more able to stand up against Trump
While Canadians are not quite as central to the current events in LA, the US' northerly neighbours have been at loggerheads with the Trump administration.
The US national anthem, "The Star-Spangled Banner," has been booed at ice hockey games in Canada in recent months, and Carney's surprise election was partly ascribed to his willingness to take on Trump and his plan to make Canada the 51st state.
"Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign in the last several months, it's not for sale. Won't be for sale, ever," Carney told Trump when the pair met in May in a meeting that was otherwise relatively cordial, despite clear tensions.
For those hoping to plan a visit to, or participation in, the World Cup, judging the political mood — and the implications of changes in it — have become as important as waiting for results from qualifying.
"I could see it happening along the way that if Sheinbaum becomes a little bit more aggressive than Trump wants her to be, or challenges some of Trump's immigration moves, that he would say: "You know what? I might not let Mexico participate in the World Cup, or I might not let this happen or that happen.'
So I can see threats like that, but I'd have to believe that they wouldn't be carried out," said Zimbalist, musing on what might play out in the next year.
The Club World Cup, which starts Saturday and is hosted solely by the US, is perceived by some as a test of elements of the country's readiness to host the 026 World Cup. But any development or deterioration of relations between the three co-hosts will be critical to the success of next year's tournament.
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