Oil edges down on expectations of more OPEC+ supply, tariff fears
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday, weighed by expectations of an OPEC+ output hike in August and concerns of an economic slowdown driven by prospects of higher U.S. tariffs.
Brent crude futures
for September delivery fell 16 cents, or 0.24%, to $66.58 a barrel by 0000 GMT. U.S.
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West Texas Intermediate crude declined 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $64.91 a barrel.
"The market is now concerned that the OPEC+ alliance will continue with its accelerated rate of output increases," ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a note.
Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar hikes in May, June, and July.
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If approved, this would bring OPEC+'s total supply increase for the year to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to more than 1.5% of
global oil demand
. OPEC and its allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, will meet on July 6.
Uncertainty about U.S. tariffs and their impact on global growth also kept a lid on oil prices.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations as a July 9 deadline approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to President Donald Trump's suspended rates of 11% to 50% announced on April 2.
Morgan Stanley expects Brent futures to retrace to around $60 by early next year, with the market being well supplied and geopolitical risk abating following the Israel-Iran de-escalation. It expects an oversupply of 1.3 million bpd in 2026.
A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 pushed up Brent prices. They surged above $80 a barrel after the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear facilities and then slumped to $67 after Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.
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