Jim Cramer on two trends moving the market: Global trade and dollar weakness
"You know why I first got into this whacky business? Stories, stories that's why," Cramer said. "Tremendous, intriguing stories, tales that could explain what's going to happen — and you could actually make a little money from them. That's what's happening right now, and the stories are driving much of this action."
According to Cramer, Wall Street is at "an inflection point." He said investors can focus on "minutiae," like job losses in healthcare, moves in the 10-year Treasury or commentary from different members of the Federal Reserve. Or, he said, "we can keep an eye on all of that but focus on some stories that can make us some money."
Cramer first pointed to developments in global trade regarding Vietnam. He described how President Donald Trump slapped Vietnam with a hefty tariff on his so-called "Liberation Day" back in April. The move came as a blow to many major companies who had rushed to move manufacturing from China to Vietnam to appease Trump, he said. Since then, Cramer continued, many apparel and furniture companies have seen their stocks take a hit as they face supply chain upset.
However, Trump on Wednesday announced that the U.S. struck a trade deal with Vietnam that established a lower tariff on goods than he has initially threatened. A number of stocks jumped at the news, Cramer said, including Nike and Williams-Sonoma. He also named Gap, Levi Strauss and Kontoor Brands — which owns Lee, Wrangler and Helly Hansen — as potential winners.
Another notable trend Cramer identified is the weakness of the dollar, which reached a four-year low. Cramer said he thinks this weakness is positive for consumer packaged goods' companies like Procter & Gamble, because it makes their exports more competitive.
"Now, I don't like Procter & Gamble stock that much here, but it's pretty obvious they'll be able to beat the numbers thanks to the weaker dollar," he said.
Click here to download Jim Cramer's Guide to Investing at no cost to help you build long-term wealth and invest smarter.Disclaimer
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Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump says US has reached trade deal with Vietnam as deadline looms for deals
President Trump on Wednesday said he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam, one week ahead of a July 9 deadline for tariffs to snap back to higher levels for US partners. Trump said Vietnam's goods imported to the US would face a 20% tariff, lower than the 46% tariff he had levied as part of his "Liberation Day" plans but higher than the blanket 10% tariff currently in effect. He also said Vietnamese goods would face a higher 40% tariff "on any transshipping" — when goods shipped from Vietnam originate from another country, like China. Trump said that US goods exported to Vietnam would not face a tariff. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,'" Trump wrote on Truth Social. The deal would be the second the US has struck with a trade partner since Trump paused those sky-high "Liberation Day" duties, in addition to a pact with the United Kingdom. The US has also agreed with China on a framework to move toward a larger trade deal. Trump's July 9 deadline has come back in focus in recent weeks as more countries struggle to get over the hump. Trump earlier this week said negotiations with Japan had soured, saying he would force Japan to accept higher tariffs of "30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine." Notably, that proposal is higher than the 24% "Liberation Day" level. 'I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," Trump said. "I doubt it with Japan. They're very tough. You have to understand, they're very spoiled." With Japan as his jumping-off point, Trump renewed threats that he may stick to his self-imposed July 9 deadline for making trade deals and issue new tariff levels to trading partners, forgoing another pause to "Liberation Day" duties. "I'll be writing letters to a lot of countries," he said. Meanwhile, the European Union has signaled it was willing to accept a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports but is seeking exemptions for pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft as part of a trade deal. On the North American front, Canada has scrapped its digital services tax that was set to affect large US technology companies. The White House said trade talks between the two countries had resumed after Trump threatened to cut off trade talks. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. President Trump followed up his previous announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam with some additional details on social media. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam," Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump wrote that the two sides agreed to a 20% tariff rate on all goods sent from Vietnam to the US and a 40% tariff rate on transshipment — essentially, when goods from China or other countries are routed through Vietnam. Tariffs on goods from the country were previously set to return to 46% on July 9. Vietnam also lowered tariffs on US goods to zero, Trump said, and is lowering trade barriers. The president suggested US automakers could introduce more SUVs to the Southeast Asian country. "In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade," Trump wrote. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." President Trump had targeted Vietnam with some of the highest tariffs of any country on his April "Liberation Day." That's at least partly because he and top advisers have made Vietnam an example of a country that is allegedly "ripping off" the US. Vietnam has become the US's 10th-largest trade partner, according to US Census data. And it is the seventh-largest source of imports, sending goods worth over $130 billion. It contains factories for some of the biggest US-based apparel makers, including Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Vietnam became a destination for companies looking to diversify manufacturing as US-China tensions escalated over the past decade. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US ballooned to over $123 billion last year. This year's US trade deficit with Vietnam stood over $50 billion through just April as companies raced to move more operations out of China. The US and Vietnam are said to be very close to a establishing a trade framework that will see goods given a scaled range of tariffs depending on the percentage of foreign content, according to people familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have hit electric vehicle maker, Rivian (RIVN) who reported a sharp fall in second-quarter deliveries on Wednesday as demand for its EVs took a hit from competition and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said that his administration has struck a preliminary trade agreement with Vietnam a week before the self-imposed deadline of July 9. "I just made a Trade Deal with Vietnam. Details to follow!" Trump posted on Truth Social. While we don't yet know the details of the deal, Vietnam had been seeking to secure tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, below Trump's "Liberation Day" rate of 46% for goods from the country, according to a Bloomberg report. The US had been looking to stop the flow of goods from China that had been rerouted through Vietnam to circumvent tariffs. Vietnam had offered to remove all tariffs on US goods and step up trade enforcement, according to people familiar with the talks. When President Trump imposed his 25% tariffs on imported Japanese cars, the expectation had been higher sticker prices for US consumers and a drop in sales. It was expected that the added costs to exporters would be passed on to the consumer. However, the policy has been in place for months and the outcomes has proven far less intense. Bloomberg News reports: Japanese automakers' US sales have shown surprising resilience. Toyota (TM), for example, hit a global sales record in May, with North America sales up more than a tenth. Part of that is thanks to their local US production. Read more here. A key group of US employers would face direct costs of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump's current tariff plans. These costs could lead companies to hike prices, layoff staff, lead to hiring freezes and lower profit margins, according to analysis by the JP Morgan Institute. AP reports: Read more here. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has blasted American cars, saying they are a tough sell in Japan. Ishiba added that his government needs to discuss with the US how to boost car imports from America. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. As the US gets ready to celebrate its Independence Day on July 4, the day it was liberated and rebelled against British rule, there is still one area that it may still be dependent on and thats China. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. For many companies, the process from manufacture to sales has always started in China. When Plufl co-founders, Yuki Kinsohita and Noah Sliverman, began making dog beds for humans and pitched their prototype to Shark Tank in 2022, they envisioned making their plush, memory foam beds in China and selling them at retail in the US for $299. Mark Cuban and Lori Greiner both invested $200,000 for a 20% share in the business, which went on to make over $1 million in sales in 2023, via Amazon and on their company website. However, this dream changed overnight when President Trump slapped a 145% tariff on items imported from China in April. The business leaders sprang into action and started to look at retailers and whether they would be interested in selling a US-made version of the human dog beds. Reuters reports: Read more here. The risk that tariffs pose to the global economy have never been more real and now for Italy the macroeconomic pressures that President Trump's tariffs bring are very concerning, with the head of the main Italian lobby saying on Wednesday that Italy risks losing around $23.6 billion in exports and 118,000 jobs if the US imposes tariffs of 10%. Reuters reports: Read more here. If investors are expecting a seasonal lift for Asian equities this summer, they may have to think again. Tariff pressures and macroeconomic concerns have started to dampen sentiment. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. For several months, the back and forth between the US and Japan has been an ongoing concern as the two parties attempt to reach a trade deal and avoid skyrocketing tariffs. Now Trump has threatened Japan with tariffs of up to 35%. This is a worst-case scenario for Japan and has started to raise doubts over Tokyo's tactics in trade talks. "Japan should be forced to pay 30% or 35% or whatever number we determine, because we have a very big trade deficit with Japan," Trump said on Tuesday, calling the country "spoiled." Experts have warned about taking Trump's comments at face value and believe that a deal will get done. However, they have also said that now is perhaps the time for Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to take a less friendly stance when it comes to trade negotiations. 'There is some risk of a US tantrum that results in higher punitive actions by Washington this month,' said Kurt Tong, a former senior US diplomat in Asia who's now a managing partner at the Asia Group. 'If that happens, Japan may have no choice but to hit back with its own specific countermeasures.' Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump on Tuesday, amid days of renewed whiplash on the tariff front, suggested he wouldn't extend a July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume on trade partners. He also threatened a tariff level on goods from Japan that would be higher than those he levied on the country in April. From Bloomberg: Notably, that 30% or 35% would be a higher level than the 24% he had laid out as part of his "Liberation Day" duties. Bloomberg added that Trump "sounded more optimistic" about an agreement with India. Read more here. US manufacturing remained weak in June. New orders were low and input costs went up slightly. This shows Trump's tariffs on imports are still making it hard for businesses to plan. Reuters reports: Read more here. The European Union has hardened its stance in trade trade talks with US President Donald Trump and are insisting the US drops its tariffs on the EU immediately as part of any framework deal ahead of the July 9 deadline. Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been told he must take a tougher line on his trip to Washington this week as Brussels attempts to remove or at least cut Trump's levies in the long term. The FT reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are causing the central bank to take its time before cutting interest rates. Powell is speaking today about the Fed's policy stance at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. When asked if the Fed would have cut interest rates by more by now if it weren't for higher tariffs, Powell stated, "I think that's right." "In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs," Powell continued. "Essentially, all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs." Powell noted that the US economy remains healthy overall but that he expects to see the effects of tariffs if they filter through the economic data in the coming months. In recent days, Powell has faced increased pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, including in the form of handwritten notes. "Ignore the tariffs for a second," Powell said of the economy. "Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hoped that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs, and we didn't expect to by now." Watch Powell speak live below: Perhaps the moral of this story really is — as Amex likes to say — "Don't leave home without it." Nowhere was this more true than for CEO Robert Keeley, who when faced with an $11,000 tariff bill decided to cash in 1.83 million American Express reward points to pay it. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. From President Trump's tariffs to the Federal Reserve rate cut saga, the US stock market has just completed a roller-coaster first half of the year. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 5% year to date, rebounding from its April slump after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced. But what should investors watch for in the second half of 2025? Here's a look at six key questions facing US stock investors at the start of the second half. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump followed up his previous announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam with some additional details on social media. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam," Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump wrote that the two sides agreed to a 20% tariff rate on all goods sent from Vietnam to the US and a 40% tariff rate on transshipment — essentially, when goods from China or other countries are routed through Vietnam. Tariffs on goods from the country were previously set to return to 46% on July 9. Vietnam also lowered tariffs on US goods to zero, Trump said, and is lowering trade barriers. The president suggested US automakers could introduce more SUVs to the Southeast Asian country. "In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade," Trump wrote. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." President Trump had targeted Vietnam with some of the highest tariffs of any country on his April "Liberation Day." That's at least partly because he and top advisers have made Vietnam an example of a country that is allegedly "ripping off" the US. Vietnam has become the US's 10th-largest trade partner, according to US Census data. And it is the seventh-largest source of imports, sending goods worth over $130 billion. It contains factories for some of the biggest US-based apparel makers, including Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Vietnam became a destination for companies looking to diversify manufacturing as US-China tensions escalated over the past decade. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US ballooned to over $123 billion last year. This year's US trade deficit with Vietnam stood over $50 billion through just April as companies raced to move more operations out of China. The US and Vietnam are said to be very close to a establishing a trade framework that will see goods given a scaled range of tariffs depending on the percentage of foreign content, according to people familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have hit electric vehicle maker, Rivian (RIVN) who reported a sharp fall in second-quarter deliveries on Wednesday as demand for its EVs took a hit from competition and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said that his administration has struck a preliminary trade agreement with Vietnam a week before the self-imposed deadline of July 9. "I just made a Trade Deal with Vietnam. Details to follow!" Trump posted on Truth Social. While we don't yet know the details of the deal, Vietnam had been seeking to secure tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, below Trump's "Liberation Day" rate of 46% for goods from the country, according to a Bloomberg report. The US had been looking to stop the flow of goods from China that had been rerouted through Vietnam to circumvent tariffs. Vietnam had offered to remove all tariffs on US goods and step up trade enforcement, according to people familiar with the talks. When President Trump imposed his 25% tariffs on imported Japanese cars, the expectation had been higher sticker prices for US consumers and a drop in sales. It was expected that the added costs to exporters would be passed on to the consumer. However, the policy has been in place for months and the outcomes has proven far less intense. Bloomberg News reports: Japanese automakers' US sales have shown surprising resilience. Toyota (TM), for example, hit a global sales record in May, with North America sales up more than a tenth. Part of that is thanks to their local US production. Read more here. A key group of US employers would face direct costs of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump's current tariff plans. These costs could lead companies to hike prices, layoff staff, lead to hiring freezes and lower profit margins, according to analysis by the JP Morgan Institute. AP reports: Read more here. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has blasted American cars, saying they are a tough sell in Japan. Ishiba added that his government needs to discuss with the US how to boost car imports from America. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. As the US gets ready to celebrate its Independence Day on July 4, the day it was liberated and rebelled against British rule, there is still one area that it may still be dependent on and thats China. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. For many companies, the process from manufacture to sales has always started in China. When Plufl co-founders, Yuki Kinsohita and Noah Sliverman, began making dog beds for humans and pitched their prototype to Shark Tank in 2022, they envisioned making their plush, memory foam beds in China and selling them at retail in the US for $299. Mark Cuban and Lori Greiner both invested $200,000 for a 20% share in the business, which went on to make over $1 million in sales in 2023, via Amazon and on their company website. However, this dream changed overnight when President Trump slapped a 145% tariff on items imported from China in April. The business leaders sprang into action and started to look at retailers and whether they would be interested in selling a US-made version of the human dog beds. Reuters reports: Read more here. The risk that tariffs pose to the global economy have never been more real and now for Italy the macroeconomic pressures that President Trump's tariffs bring are very concerning, with the head of the main Italian lobby saying on Wednesday that Italy risks losing around $23.6 billion in exports and 118,000 jobs if the US imposes tariffs of 10%. Reuters reports: Read more here. If investors are expecting a seasonal lift for Asian equities this summer, they may have to think again. Tariff pressures and macroeconomic concerns have started to dampen sentiment. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. For several months, the back and forth between the US and Japan has been an ongoing concern as the two parties attempt to reach a trade deal and avoid skyrocketing tariffs. Now Trump has threatened Japan with tariffs of up to 35%. This is a worst-case scenario for Japan and has started to raise doubts over Tokyo's tactics in trade talks. "Japan should be forced to pay 30% or 35% or whatever number we determine, because we have a very big trade deficit with Japan," Trump said on Tuesday, calling the country "spoiled." Experts have warned about taking Trump's comments at face value and believe that a deal will get done. However, they have also said that now is perhaps the time for Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to take a less friendly stance when it comes to trade negotiations. 'There is some risk of a US tantrum that results in higher punitive actions by Washington this month,' said Kurt Tong, a former senior US diplomat in Asia who's now a managing partner at the Asia Group. 'If that happens, Japan may have no choice but to hit back with its own specific countermeasures.' Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump on Tuesday, amid days of renewed whiplash on the tariff front, suggested he wouldn't extend a July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume on trade partners. He also threatened a tariff level on goods from Japan that would be higher than those he levied on the country in April. From Bloomberg: Notably, that 30% or 35% would be a higher level than the 24% he had laid out as part of his "Liberation Day" duties. Bloomberg added that Trump "sounded more optimistic" about an agreement with India. Read more here. US manufacturing remained weak in June. New orders were low and input costs went up slightly. This shows Trump's tariffs on imports are still making it hard for businesses to plan. Reuters reports: Read more here. The European Union has hardened its stance in trade trade talks with US President Donald Trump and are insisting the US drops its tariffs on the EU immediately as part of any framework deal ahead of the July 9 deadline. Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been told he must take a tougher line on his trip to Washington this week as Brussels attempts to remove or at least cut Trump's levies in the long term. The FT reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are causing the central bank to take its time before cutting interest rates. Powell is speaking today about the Fed's policy stance at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. When asked if the Fed would have cut interest rates by more by now if it weren't for higher tariffs, Powell stated, "I think that's right." "In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs," Powell continued. "Essentially, all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs." Powell noted that the US economy remains healthy overall but that he expects to see the effects of tariffs if they filter through the economic data in the coming months. In recent days, Powell has faced increased pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, including in the form of handwritten notes. "Ignore the tariffs for a second," Powell said of the economy. "Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hoped that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs, and we didn't expect to by now." Watch Powell speak live below: Perhaps the moral of this story really is — as Amex likes to say — "Don't leave home without it." Nowhere was this more true than for CEO Robert Keeley, who when faced with an $11,000 tariff bill decided to cash in 1.83 million American Express reward points to pay it. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. From President Trump's tariffs to the Federal Reserve rate cut saga, the US stock market has just completed a roller-coaster first half of the year. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 5% year to date, rebounding from its April slump after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced. But what should investors watch for in the second half of 2025? Here's a look at six key questions facing US stock investors at the start of the second half. Reuters reports: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
U.S. seals trade deal with Vietnam ahead of July 9 deadline
CNBC's Squawk Box Asia anchors Martin Soong and Chery Kang talked about the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal that halved tariff on Vietnamese goods to 20%, less than half of the initial rate of 46%.
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
AI voice startup ElevenLabs pushes global expansion as it gears up for an IPO
LONDON — ElevenLabs, a London-based startup that specializes in generating synthetic voices through artificial intelligence, has revealed plans to be IPO-ready within five years. The company told CNBC it is targeting major global expansion as it prepares for an initial public offering. "We expect to build more hubs in Europe, Asia and South America, and just keep scaling," Mati Staniszewski, ElevenLabs' CEO and co-founder, told CNBC in an interview at the firm's London office. He identified Paris, Singapore, Brazil and Mexico as potential new locations. London is currently ElevenLabs' biggest office, followed by New York, Warsaw, San Francisco, Japan, India and Bangalore. Staniszewski said the eventual aim is to get the company ready for an IPO in the next five years. "From a commercial standpoint, we would like to be ready for an IPO in that time," he said. "If the market is right, we would like to create a public company … that's going to be here for the next generation." Founded in 2022 by Staniszewski and Piotr Dąbkowski, ElevenLabs is an AI voice generation startup that competes with the likes of Speechmatics and Hume AI. The company divides its business into three main camps: consumer-facing voice assistants, integrations with corporates such as Cisco, and tailor-made applications for specific industries like health care. Staniszewski said the firm hasn't yet decided where it could list, but that this decision will largely rest on where most of its users are located at the time. "If the U.K. is able to start accelerating," ElevenLabs will consider London as a listing destination, Staniszewski said. The city has faced criticisms from entrepreneurs and venture capitalists that its stock market is unfavorable toward high-growth tech firms. For example, Deliveroo, whose shares tanked nearly 30% when the company went public, was recently acquired by U.S. food delivery rival DoorDash for close to $4 billion. Meanwhile, British money transfer firm Wise last month said it plans to move its primary listing location to the U.S., ElevenLabs was valued at $3.3 billion following a recent $180 million funding round. The company is backed by the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and ICONIQ Growth, as well as corporate names like Salesforce and Deutsche Telekom. Staniszewski said his startup was open to raising more money from VCs, but it would depend on whether it sees a valid business need, like scaling further in other markets. "The way we try to raise is very much like, if there's a bet we want to take, to accelerate that bet [we will] take the money," he said.
