Navigating market volatility amid tariff threats

Bloomberg

29-04-2025

The issue
Tariffs pose a threat to the US economy's resilience with disruptions to trade flows and consumer spending—two key indicators of economic health. The need for timely data and advanced analytical capabilities to assess these impacts accurately is critical in navigating the volatility inflicted on markets. In a recent analysis of US import dynamics, Bloomberg's ECAN tool, which allows users to see the key economic indicators that contribute most to headline numbers, revealed that in February imports from China declined by about $10 billion from January. Drilling down on shifting trade patterns can help forecast broader economic implications.
Additionally, consumer spending behaviors can rapidly shift in response to economic uncertainty from tariffs. Consumer spending is crucial for the health of the US economy, and consumer demand and supply levels can act as a leading indicator of inflation. The ECAN tool can leverage real-time credit and debit card transaction data from millions of consumers. In March, analytics showed a noticeable year-over-year dip in consumer spending with purchases appearing to be directed more towards essential goods than discretionary items.
Tariffs on raw materials and agricultural products threaten to drive up inflation and spark fears of recession. Meanwhile, expectations for oil consumption this year have already been slashed by 320,000 barrels a day, while prices approach a four-year low.
'Oil is already starting to price in a recession,' Energy Aspects analysts wrote in a note. 'The question now concerns how long the front can hold out while the world's two largest economies butt heads — which historically has not been the best news for demand and the global economy as a whole.'
Tracking
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