Analyzing the 2025 Kentucky Oaks field: Favorites, contenders and long shots

New York Times

01-05-2025

'Lilies for the Fillies' isn't quite as well-known as 'Run for the Roses,' but the blanket of lilies that drapes over the winner of the Kentucky Oaks is no less coveted by those with connections to the 14 fillies running Friday at Churchill Downs.
Last year's winner, Thorpedo Anna, went on to win Horse of the Year honors and end 2024 with earnings of $3.6 million. While we can't expect another super-filly to emerge from this year's Oaks, we can expect a competitive race and plenty of opportunities to cash tickets.
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Below is a full breakdown of the field for this year's Kentucky Oaks, in post position order.
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, Timothy Pinch, and Bradley Kent
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Edgard Zayas
Morning line odds: 30-1
This long shot has compiled a decent record, finishing out of the top three only once in six races, but that's the headline, not the story. She's won just once; she took four races to break her maiden; and she's never run in a race at nearly this level. She did finish second by a nose in her only attempt in a graded stakes race — her last out on April 5 — and the horse that beat her, Ballerina d'Oro, is in the Oaks field. Early On's speed figures place her far below what is likely to be competitive here.
Owner: Grantley Acres, Ryan Conner, Berkels0813, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Morning line odds: 10-1
One of the many fillies here who likes to use her speed to gain an early advantage, though she did come from behind to win her first start. Trainer Beckman opted to skip the usual maiden race for her debut, running her in a minor stakes race at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. She won an Oaks prep race there in January — over a sloppy track — and was second to Quietside, a serious contender here, in her only loss. She intrigues at what's likely to be a moderate price, though her short résumé might be a concern.
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Madaket Stables
Trainer: Graham Motion
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 30-1
Graham Motion isn't the sort of trainer to run a horse just to take a shot, and he's known to spring an upset at a favorable price. That said, Fondly is up against it. She's run just twice, winning both, and she had no problem moving from seven furlongs to a mile and 1/16th, suggesting the increased distance may not be a problem. She's never run in a graded stakes race or against company like this, but she's shown she can stalk a pace if necessary. With one of the country's best jockeys in the saddle and one of its most esteemed trainers behind her, don't overlook her, especially underneath in vertical exotics.
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Owner: Legion Racing
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Morning line odds: 30-1
The second of two horses in the Oaks trained by Louisville's Whit Beckman, Drexel Hill looks to be significantly outmatched. Despite making seven starts, she's never run in a graded stakes race, nor has she raced beyond a mile. She is a closer in a field of speed horses, which could be an advantage, but unless something changes between now and Friday, she's just not fast enough.
Owner: Greenwell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning line odds: 30-1
This $550,000 yearling purchase looked like a promising filly last year as a 2-year-old. Trainer Amoss started her at two of the country's most prestigious, competitive meets at Saratoga and Keeneland, and she ended the year with a record of one win, one second and two thirds in four races. In two starts this year, she's not the same filly, winless so far in 2025 and really not competitive. She'll need a major turnaround to hit the board here.
Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 10-1
She comes to the race off the narrowest of wins in the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct in early April, her first win since breaking her maiden last September. She's been a factor, though, finishing second in the Grade 2 Demoiselle last December, and she finished third in her first start this year off a three-month layoff. She's a versatile runner, comfortable stalking or coming from off the pace, and her speed figures say she can run with her rivals here.
Owner: Tracy Farmer
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Morning line odds: 6-1
She's been running in top company since breaking her maiden at Saratoga last summer, and aside from a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she's done pretty much nothing wrong. She's won two out of three this year, finishing second once, and she's got two graded stakes wins to her credit, including her last race, the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. She didn't run well in her lone start on an off track (which was also her first start), so maybe tread cautiously if the rains come.
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Owner: Gatsas Stables
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Morning line odds: 12-1
Speedy and consistent, this filly has met every challenge thrown at her (except for that stinker of a first start back in August). She's won on turf. She's won on dirt. She relishes distance, and she racked up Oaks qualifying points, finishing fifth on the final leaderboard. She's another wanting to run on or close to the pace, and her speed figures are among the best in the field. She'll be on my tickets.
Owner: Baoma Corporation
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning line odds: 12-1
Bob Baffert is back at Churchill Downs. The Hall of Fame trainer was banned by the track for three years after his horse, Medina Spirit, failed a post-race drug test after winning the 2021 Kentucky Derby. No one will be surprised if he's back in the Louisville winner's circle that he knows so well. However, Baffert's not known for training closers, and this $850,000 filly is also not a closer — though she did come from off the pace in two early races. If she can rate in anticipation of a possible speed duel, she's poised to add to her already substantial trophy collection. She's won five of six starts, including four graded stakes.
Owner: James Ball, Magdalena Racing, and Kenneth Rhodes
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Morning line odds: 12-1
A year ago, trainer Ken McPeek brought a modestly bred $40,000 filly to this race, and eight months later, that horse, Thorpedo Anna, was voted Horse of the Year. This filly cost $60,000, though her breeding is a little more impressive, and while she's no Thorpedo Anna, she's run well against her rivals here, aside from a clunker in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn Park in February. She's got a versatile running style, and while a win might be out of reach, she should be competitive if she's in top form. Given that multiple outlets have reported that she's dealing with a foot abscess, that's a big 'if,' so proceed cautiously.
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Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning line odds: 6-5
Undefeated in six starts, she's never been seriously challenged, winning by multiple lengths even as the competition got stiffer and the distances got longer. She won an allowance race by 17 lengths over a sloppy track, and her stalking/closing style is pretty well suited for a race with this much speed. 6-5 is tough to take in a race like this, so I'm happy to let her beat me, but this is one impressive filly.
Owner: Bell Racing
Trainer: Carlos David
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning line odds: 30-1
Three months ago, this filly was winless and running in maiden claimers, the lowest tier of racing. She claimed for $50,000, and after winning an optional claimer for new trainer Carlos David, she ran second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, earning enough points to eke into the Oaks field. She'll be on or close to the pace, and her speed figures since being claimed suggest that she can run with these fillies, something unimaginable a few months ago.
Owner: Cypress Creek Equine and Madaket Stables
Trainer: Will Walden
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning line odds: 30-1
This filly will indeed need to be blessed to have a shot. She's never run in a graded stakes race, and her speed figures are well below what she'll need to be competitive. An off track might move her up a bit, and her stalking/closing style could be useful, but there's nothing on paper that suggests that she'll factor.
Owner: Shortleaf Stable
Trainer: John Ortiz
Jockey: José Ortiz
Morning line odds: 8-1
Quietside is an ultra-competitive filly that's never finished worse than third in seven lifetime starts. A multiple stakes winner, she's run in top company since breaking her maiden at Saratoga by 6 1/4 lengths, earning enough Oaks qualifying points to top the final leaderboard at the end of the prep season. This far outside post does her no favors, but she's the one I'm taking. She's got a shot to beat Good Cheer.