Aussie Could Be Finishing A Bearish Impulse
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Globe and Mail
08-05-2025
- Globe and Mail
Corn Bulls Have a Weather-Market Wild Card. How to Trade It.
See on the daily bar chart for July corn futures (ZCN25) that prices have dropped down to solid technical support around the $4.50 area. See at the bottom of the chart that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reading below 30.00, suggesting a market that is overdone on the downside. Also, see that the RSI is presently in a posture and at a price level that has correctly signaled market bottoms being close at hand over the past few months. Fundamentally, weather in the U.S. Corn Belt over the past few weeks has been bearish for corn prices, with rains and warmer temperatures that benefit corn production. However, much of the Corn Belt will see drier and warmer weather for the next roughly 10 days, which could begin to deplete soil moisture if that weather pattern extends. Also, the corn market bulls have a weather-market wild card in their vests. Many more years than not, the corn market does experience a weather-market-induced price rally during the U.S. planting and growing season. Consider buying a call option on July corn futures, with an upside price objective of $5.00 or above. The option expires the third Friday in June. IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Globe and Mail
02-05-2025
- Globe and Mail
Tesla's Band-Aid Has Been Ripped Off: Rally Mode Engaged
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed just under $290 on Tuesday, adding 2% to an impressive rally that's seen the stock gain 18% since last week's earnings report. That surge has come despite the company missing expectations on both revenue and earnings, which in most cases would be a recipe for further losses. [content-module:CompanyOverview|NASDAQ:TSLA] But this is Tesla, and its post-earnings reaction suggests the tide may be turning in a big way. The key takeaway? The band-aid has been ripped off, and much of the uncertainty has been removed. After months of heavy selling and darkening forecasts, investors appear to be finally ready to look past the doom and gloom and buy back into the long-term story. The technicals support this view, with the higher RSI and MACD maintaining bullish momentum. If this holds, Tesla could be in the early stages of a much larger recovery. Earnings Miss, But Focus Shifts to What's Ahead Tesla reported Q1 revenue of $19.34 billion, down 9.2% year over year and well below expectations. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.27, a clear miss by $0.15. Much of the shortfall came from a combination of production line upgrades and ongoing pressure in the EV pricing environment. Despite the headline numbers, the company's commentary painted a picture of transition rather than deterioration. Tesla highlighted the successful simultaneous retooling of all four of its vehicle factories, a move the company called an automotive industry first, as it ramped up for updated Model Y production. Management also reinforced its commitment to AI and energy storage, calling both pillars of future growth. They noted that AI infrastructure is driving rapid demand for energy storage, a segment that saw a solid increase in revenue. While automotive sales did drop, the energy division is increasingly being seen as proof that Tesla can scale new business lines quickly and at meaningful volume. AI, Energy, and a Shift in Focus Tesla's outlook clearly hinges on its ability to diversify. The company stated outright that AI is central to both its business model and the broader economy, and it pointed to the rapidly growing demand for infrastructure as a major catalyst for energy product sales. While the ongoing tariff environment and macro headwinds are expected to weigh more heavily on the energy division than the automotive side, Tesla said it's already taking steps to stabilize margins and ensure long-term profitability. It also reiterated its intent to roll out autonomous robots for multiple use cases, another sign that it sees real opportunity beyond cars. Meanwhile, another key shift that is helping fuel the rally: Elon Musk confirmed he will soon step back from his work with the Department of Government Efficiency and refocus on Tesla. Investors have long worried that Musk's outside commitments were distracting from the company's day-to-day execution. This change, subtle as it may be, seems to have offered the market a much-needed psychological reset. The Technicals Back the Move Tesla's chart now reflects a change in sentiment. The stock is putting together a string of higher closes, and more importantly, it's done so on rising volume. The relative strength index (RSI) has climbed steadily from deeply oversold levels and now sits comfortably in bullish territory. The MACD remains in a positive crossover and is trending upward—two important signs that momentum has shifted. This kind of price action is often what marks the beginning of sustained rallies, especially in high-beta stocks like Tesla. With many traders caught flat-footed by the move off the lows, further strength could force a wave of short covering and FOMO-driven buying. [content-module:TradingView|NASDAQ:TSLA] Some Risks Remain To be sure, the risks haven't vanished. Tesla is still navigating fierce pricing pressure from Chinese competitors, soft demand in the U.S., and an uncertain macro landscape. But those risks are no longer new, and the stock's reaction suggests they may already be priced in. Tesla's ability to rebound on disappointing numbers reflects just how washed out sentiment had become. Now that expectations are reset and the narrative is shifting back toward innovation and execution, the upside looks far more tangible than it did just a few weeks ago. Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now? Before you make your next trade, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. Our team has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and none of the big name stocks were on the list. They believe these five stocks are the five best companies for investors to buy now...
Globe and Mail
19-04-2025
- Globe and Mail
Soybean Oil calendar spread and a Robusta Coffee calendar spread
Spread Edge Capital specializes in seasonal spread trading across a wide variety of commodity markets. A spread trade is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same commodity with different delivery dates. SpreadEdge publishes a weekly Newsletter that provides several seasonal spread trade opportunities every week. Watch List The SpreadEdge Newsletter includes a 'Watch List' of trades that meet our strict screening criteria. Included in the Watch List are the markets, commodity symbols, entry and exit dates, win %, average profit, average drawdown, best profit, worst loss, and risk level (using a 1-5 scale). All information is hypothetical and is based on the most recent 15 years of historical data. This week there are 3 trades on the Watch List planned for client and personal accounts. This article will focus on the Soybean Oil calendar spread. Disclaimer HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Technical Analysis Soybean Oil has bounced higher by over 9% in the past 6 trading days and is now running into overhead resistance. BO has failed to break through the last 3 attempts and I expect this attempt to be no different. CTA Momentum The CTA Positioning and Momentum Score is an accurate measure of current momentum and trend-following trader positioning using a (+10 / -10 scale). Momentum and trend following traders represent a large percentage of trading and can move markets significantly higher or lower. Relative Strength is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI has a 0 to 100 scale. Soybean Oil has a maximum score of 10, indicating that CTAs are fully invested and have little trading capital to add to existing longs. In addition, the RSI score is 63 and amongst the strongest in the ag complex. Scores approaching 70 have a high likelihood of reversal. Hedge Fund Position Estimates Managed money hedge funds are consistently drivers of futures price changes. When hedge funds buy futures prices tend to increase and vice versa. Non-commercial and managed money hedge funds have each added around 60,000 net longs this last week and are now nearing the highest investment levels over the past 52 weeks. Spread Chart Spread Charts represent the difference between the front and back month contracts and are simply the front month price minus the back month price. Spreads that are sold profit when the price gets more negative or less positive. Spreads that are bought profit when prices get more positive or less negative. To trade Soybean Oil, I will sell the August, December calendar spread. Based on 15 years of historical data, the best entry date is Sunday, April 20 which rolls to Monday the 21 st. More Information Use coupon code 'SpreadEdge' and get the Weekly Newsletter and Daily Alerts for $1 for the first month. For a limited time, you can receive my Futures Training Videos for free with a 3-month, 6-month, or 12-month subscription. For a FREE eBook about the SpreadEdge seasonal spread strategy. The SpreadEdge Weekly Newsletter is published every weekend and provides a broad overview of the important seasonal, technical, and fundamental indicators within the Energy, Grains, Meats, Softs, Metals and Currency markets. In addition, spread trade recommendations and follow-up on open trades is also provided. For a free copy of the Weekly Newsletter, please send an email to info@ Darren Carlat SpreadEdge Capital, LLC (214) 636-3133 Darren@ Disclaimer SpreadEdge Capital, LLC is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is an NFA member. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, The risk associated with futures trading is substantial. Only risk capital should be used for these investments because you can lose more than your original investment. This is not a solicitation.
