Pakistan-Turkey defence ties in spotlight post Pahalgam. How they've grown to be strategic allies
The Turkish Defense Ministry has reportedly denied claims that arms or ammunition were delivered, terming the recent landings of Turkish C-130 Hercules aircraft in Karachi as only for refueling purposes.
New Delhi: As tensions rise between India and Pakistan in the wake of the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, Islamabad's deepening defence ties with Turkey are drawing renewed scrutiny. Though both Ankara and Islamabad deny any recent arms transfer, several Turkish military aircraft landings in Pakistan have fueled speculation about covert military support.
However, while Turkey and Pakistan may be drawing closer diplomatically and strategically, experts advise separating signal from noise when it comes to military movements and geopolitical messaging—especially during volatile moments like these.
Defence analyst and Pakistan military expert Ayesha Siddiqa cautioned against overhyping the developments. 'There is nothing which should make you (India) jump up and down,' she told ThePrint.
'Pakistan and Turkey have good security relations. They are already co-developing fighter aircraft. This is not some Muslim world conspiracy against India,' she added.
Kabir Taneja, Deputy Director, Strategic Studies and Fellow, Middle East, Observer Research Foundation (ORF) agreed.
Still, the optics and timing of these military movements have amplified suspicions. As India weighs its strategic response to the Pahalgam attack, the quiet, expanding alliance between Pakistan and Turkey signals a broader recalibration in South Asia's security dynamics.
Taneja stressed that the broader military balance in the region remains unchanged, shaped primarily by nuclear deterrence rather than conventional capabilities.
'Conventionally, of course, India is much more well equipped. But we've seen this sort of layout…as far as military balance is concerned in Asia, that's decided by deterrence of a nuclear kind, not conventional kind,' he added.
Also read: Who is backing Pakistan? India must guard against Turkey & China's dirty games
A growing axis: Pakistan, Turkey, and beyond
Turkey, China, and Azerbaijan have expressed political and military solidarity with Pakistan in the aftermath of the attack, signaling a tightening regional axis in South Asia.
Pakistan's list of steadfast allies has grown thin in recent years, with even close partners like China and Saudi Arabia occasionally diverging from Islamabad on key issues. In contrast, Turkey has emerged as the one ally that has maintained a consistently smooth relationship with Pakistan—both diplomatically and strategically.
That's why Ankara's growing defense cooperation with Islamabad is being closely watched in New Delhi, especially in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, according to Washington-based South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman.
'Turkey is the quiet partner that never disappoints. Turkey's growing defense ties with Pakistan will be concerning for New Delhi against the backdrop of the current crisis—and especially as Turkey is a rare country that consistently sides with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue,' Kugelman told ThePrint.
The Turkish-Pakistani military relationship has matured into a full-spectrum strategic partnership. Joint ventures span air, naval, and cyber domains. Pakistan is now participating in Turkey's fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet programme alongside Azerbaijan, following Ankara's exclusion from the US-led F-35 program.
Previously, Turkish Aerospace Industries upgraded 41 of Pakistan's F-16s in a $75 million deal. Turkish firm ASELSAN also supplied advanced targeting pods for Pakistan's JF-17 jets, while HAVELSAN, a Turkish technology company delivered a full-spectrum electronic warfare training range.
In the naval domain, Turkish defence firm STM completed a $350 million mid-life upgrade of Pakistan Navy's Agosta 90B submarines, and the $1.5 billion MILGEM-class corvette project saw two ships built in Karachi.
Pakistan's drone arsenal has also benefited from Turkish technology. After US export blocks stalled ATAK helicopter deals, Ankara pivoted to UAV cooperation. In 2023, Turkish drone giant Baykar signed an agreement with Pakistan's National Aerospace Science and Technology Park to jointly develop UAVs, following Pakistan's 2022 acquisition of the battle-tested Bayraktar TB-2 drones.
Strategic messaging and Cyber operations
The growing defence synergy is not limited to military hardware. Turkish and Pakistani forces regularly hold joint drills, including the elite Ataturk-Jinnah special forces exercises and the Anatolian Eagle air combat training. These exercises are aimed at improving interoperability and showcasing alliance strength, according to a report by Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA).
But cooperation has also extended into the digital realm. A 2022 report by Nordic Monitor alleged that Turkey had helped Pakistan establish a covert cyber army tasked with advancing Islamabad's narrative in Southeast Asia, attacking Indian and US digital platforms, and shielding Pakistani leaders from international criticism. The initiative reportedly began in 2018 with support from Turkish and Pakistani interior ministries under then-Prime Minister Imran Khan, the report said.
Turkey's strategic South Asia outreach
Turkey's growing strategic footprint in South Asia is part of its broader 'Asia Anew Initiative' launched in 2019. Under this banner, Ankara has not only strengthened ties with Pakistan but also deepened its outreach to Bangladesh. In 2022, Dhaka signed a defence cooperation pact with Turkey, echoing similar moves with China.
The Turkish government, for its part, quietly blanket banned arms exports to India in 2024, further underlining its shift toward Islamabad. While officials in Ankara publicly downplay any adversarial posture toward India, their actions suggest a longer-term strategic realignment.
While India remains outside this emerging network, experts suggest New Delhi should view these developments as a matter of 'calculation, not concern.'
From India's perspective, however, this expanding network should not necessarily be seen as threatening.
'It's not a matter of concern, but of calculation. India should factor it into its strategic planning. With so much happening globally, no one wants to see conflict spiral out of control,' Siddiqa added.
She added that Turkey's ambitions in the region aren't limited to Pakistan. 'Under its Asia Anew Initiative, Turkey has been reaching out to other South Asian countries like Bangladesh. So yes, there is potential for more regional cooperation—just not including India.'
She, however, dismissed the idea of a military alliance forming against India.
'Turkey's not going to fight a war for Pakistan. It's a strategic partnership that includes business and defence cooperation. That's where it stands,' she said.
Taneja agreed.
'Clearly, they have very close bilateral and economic relationships. Turkey has long supported Pakistan's stance on Kashmir, raising the issue at international forums, including the UN General Assembly—moves that have drawn sharp protests from India. So those divisions between Ankara and New Delhi are there,' he said.
He also added that while Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended the G20 summit in India, there have been few high-level diplomatic exchanges beyond that. Pakistan operates Turkish-made drones and other defense equipment, but beyond that the specifics of any recent military deliveries remain murky.
Amid this confusion, experts also caution against overestimating the strategic depth of the Turkey-Pakistan alliance. Economically, the relationship is far from balanced.
'Just Istanbul as a city's economy is as big as Pakistan. So, you know, there's no real comparison other than strategic alignment. Pakistan doesn't have much to offer to Turkey and Turkey knows that as well,' said Taneja. 'Turkey has prioritised deeper economic ties with countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, leaving Pakistan's role mostly confined to symbolic and strategic alignment.'
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
Also read: Why's Turkey erupting for Ekrem İmamoğlu? He's the biggest threat to Erdoğan yet
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