Is The 1948 War Over? Yes and No

Asharq Al-Awsat

30-05-2025

The State of Israel emerged in 1948, and its emergence was accompanied by a war and the expulsion of the Palestinian population. Its birth thus became the foundational act that precipitated many subsequent wars and, eventually, the 'Arab-Israeli conflict.' However, its emergence was also foundational to the rise of military regimes and radical ideologies in the Levant.
In the shadow of this foundational event, many engrossed themselves in interpreting what Constantine Zureiq called 'the meaning of the Nakba.' Generations came and went, regimes collapsed, ideas emerged and wars were waged in the promise of undoing the outcome of that war and nullifying the victory.
Nonetheless, this victory remained incomplete. An event, any event, needs recognition to be complete. The Arab states- be they the new state's neighbours or far away, and whether they fought it or didn't- refused to recognize the 'alleged entity.'
After the Arab defeat of 1967 two decades later, the Israelis were under the impression that their victory would finally secure the recognition they had previously been denied. However, what happened was that new Arab causes- Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian- piled up over the Palestinian cause, further complicating what had already been a complex situation. Later, after 1978 and more so after 1982, Lebanon joined the club. All these 'neighbouring states' had lost land to occupation, while the surge of militias was the result of the trajectory set in motion by the 1967 defeat, and after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Islamism became dominant within these militias.
One of the great ironies of the 1948 and 1967 wars is that the party that had achieved a resounding victory continued to seek recognition from its enemy, while the party that had been routed insisted on refusing to recognize its enemy. The Arabs' refusal to recognize Israel probably stemmed, in part, from the assumption that they would manage, albeit in an unknown future, to retaliate and 'take revenge' for what happened in the two wars.
At this point, it would be no exaggeration to assert that many questions have been conclusively settled, both militarily and politically, and that the "Arab-Israeli conflict," which has narrowed to become a "Palestinian-Israeli conflict," is now behind us. At a time when a country like Syria, the 'beating heart of Arabism,' adopts a policy of pacification that is still being defined, when militias across the Levant fall after its armies have been defeated, and when the various revolutionary ideologies come to resemble abandoned houses, a military response to what was established in 1948 seems like a mirage or a hallucination. As for the political, social, and technological developments of the past couple of years, they offer no indication that the future will lead us in the opposite direction.
It seems that one thing has been turned on its head despite the Israelis maintaining the upper hand in both cases. Whereas Israel's victories in 1948 and 1967 were met with Arab refusal to recognize the Jewish state, Israel's overwhelming dominance today has been coupled with a refusal to recognize not only the Palestinians but the other Arabs of Levant as well. This is evident not only in Gaza and throughout Palestine, but also in Israel's continued occupation of Syrian and Lebanese land, not deterred by the political changes in those two countries.
The Arabs' refusal to recognize Israel has undoubtedly caused damage on every level since 1948. However, Israel's current refusal to recognize the Arabs' rights- to say nothing about Palestinians' right to a state- could create just as much harm that would not leave even Israel itself unscathed. While its victory in 1967 turned the country into a star and an inspiration to many around the world, its current posture has turned it into a polity that is reviled by a larger group of people than those who had admired it following its initial victory. Even though a military Arab response to what began in 1948 has now become unthinkable, the downward trajectory of the region, including in Israel, inspires no optimism about the imminence or plausibility of a take-off anywhere in the Levant.
Only wars ending, materially but also through recognition, can open the door to a new phase that reflects on all levels. Only with conclusive conclusions of wars can there be a radical response to the radical struggle born in 1948.
Today, some are pinning their hopes on the post–Benjamin Netanyahu era being a gateway to less gridlock. Others are betting on extracting Israel's recognition through Saudi and Gulf pressure on the United States, coupled with European (and Canadian) pressure on Tel Aviv- the former recently began abandoning their reluctance and reticence, as shown by the decision to reassess bilateral agreements. That is why, even as Israel's brutal war rages on, some believe that the establishment of a Palestinian state- or at least a process that leads to a state- has become more likely. What we can be certain of, however, is that immediately ending the genocidal war on Gaza and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid are the real test- this is our most urgent task and the benchmark. We should also note that Hamas could accelerate the positive trajectory by laying down its arms, releasing the remaining hostages, and abandoning its selfish ambition to retain control of the Gaza Strip.
It is time to turn the page on the non-recognition that began in 1948, after the struggle of 48 and the struggles it spawned had ended as belligerent events.