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New tax break for auto loans could save some buyers thousands of dollars. But will it boost sales?

New tax break for auto loans could save some buyers thousands of dollars. But will it boost sales?

Time of India21 hours ago
Millions of people receive a federal tax deduction for the interest they pay on home loans. Under President Donald Trump's new tax-cut law, many people for the first time also could claim a tax deduction for interest on their vehicle loans.
The new tax break will be available even to people who don't itemize deductions. But there are some caveats that could limit its reach. The vehicles must be new, not used. They must be assembled in the U.S. And the loans must be issued no sooner than this year, to list just a few qualifications.
Here are some things to know about the new auto loan interest tax deduction:
Candidate Trump promised an auto loan interest tax break Trump pledged while campaigning last year to make interest on car loans tax-deductible. He said it would make car ownership more affordable and "stimulate massive domestic auto production."
The idea made it into the big tax-cut bill passed by Congress, which Trump signed into law July 4.
The law allows taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 of interest payments annually on loans for new American-made vehicles from 2025 through 2028. It applies to cars, motorcycles, sport utility vehicles, minivans, vans and pickup trucks weighing less than 14,000 pounds, a threshold referred to as light vehicles. But it only applies to vehicles purchased for personal use, not for fleets or commercial purposes.
The tax break can be claimed starting on 2025 income tax returns. But the deduction phases out for individuals with incomes between $100,000 and $150,000 or joint taxpayers with incomes between $200,000 and $250,000. Those earning more cannot claim the tax break.
Millions of buyers could benefit, but millions of others will not U.S. automobile dealers sold 15.9 million new light vehicles last year, a little over half of which were assembled in the U.S, according to Cox Automotive. It says around 60 per cent of retail sales are financed with loans.
After excluding fleet and commercial vehicles and customers above the income cutoff, an estimated 3.5 million new vehicle loans could be eligible for the tax break this year, if purchasing patterns stay the same, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive.
It's the assembly plant, not the automaker's headquarters that matters The tax break applies to vehicles assembled in the U.S., no matter where the company making them is headquartered. All Tesla vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled in this country. But so are all Acura brands, the luxury model of Japanese automaker Honda.
Last year, 78 per cent of Ford vehicles sold in the U.S. were assembled in this country, according to Cox Automotive. But customers wanting the tax break will need to pay attention to specific models. While the Ford Mustang is assembled in Michigan, the Mustang Mach-E is built in Mexico.
General Motors assembles all of its Cadillacs in the U.S. But just 44 per cent of its Chevrolets sold last year were assembled in the U.S., and just 14 per cent of Buicks, according to Cox Automotive. That's a lower U.S-assembled rate than Honda (60 per cent ), Toyota (52 per cent ) and Nissan (48 per cent ), which all are headquartered in Japan.
Taxpayers could save hundreds of dollars a year The average new vehicle loan is about $44,000 financed over six years. Interest rates vary by customer, so the savings will, too. In general, the tax deduction will decline after the initial year, because interest payments on loans are frontloaded while principal payments grow on the back end.
At a 9.3 per cent interest rate, an average new vehicle buyer could save about $2,200 on taxes over four years, Smoke said. The tax savings would be less on a loan at 6.5 per cent , which is the rate figured into calculations by the American Financial Services Association, a consumer credit industry trade group.
Some people also could see a reduction in state income taxes Whereas the tax deduction for home loan interest can be claimed only by people itemizing on their tax returns, Congress wrote the deduction for auto loan interest so that it can apply to all taxpayers, including those claiming the standard deduction.
On a tax form, the auto loan deduction will come before the calculation of a taxpayer's adjusted gross income. That's an important distinction, because many states use a taxpayer's federal adjusted gross income as the starting point for figuring their state income taxes. If that income figure is lower, it could reduce the state taxes owed.
The verdict is out on whether the tax break will boost sales At Bowen Scarff Ford in Kent, Washington, customers started asking about the
auto loan tax deduction
before Congress had even taken a final vote on the tax-cut bill, said General Manager Paul Ray. So he decided to promote it on the dealer's website.
A website ribbon exclaims: "CAR LOAN TAX DEDUCTION NOW AVAILABLE" while also promoting an electric vehicle tax credit that is ending soon as a result of Trump's tax-cut law.
"I think it's going to help incentivize vehicle purchases through this year," Ray said.
Celia Winslow, president and CEO of the American Financial Services Association, concurred: "For some people deciding - should I buy it, should I not - this could be something that tips the scale."
Others remain skeptical. According to Smoke's math, the average annual tax savings is smaller than a single month's loan payment for a new vehicle.
"I don't think it moves the needle on somebody on the fence of buying a new vehicle or not," Smoke said. "But I think it could influence their decision to finance that vehicle instead of paying cash or instead of leasing a vehicle."
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At the moment, the way it is seeming, we probably will be better off versus a lot of other competitors. We are probably not going to lose out much on the tariff, but it is still a wait and watch because the India-US deal has been on the cards for a long time but still not finalised. In this environment, we are looking at two-three buckets. One is focusing on domestic things which are easier to play, which are less impacted by what happens to the US tariffs and within domestic, we have to remember that we have had easy liquidity, interest rate cuts, and a tax break for the to some extent, we probably will see improvement in domestic demand. We like the banking space more because of the valuations because that is one thing we have to keep in mind. In the last three-four years, most of the domestic names have seen a sharp rise in valuation. So, banks are one area we like. The other is cement, where a lot of cement stocks have not performed for the last two, two-and-a-half has been a consolidation in the sector and we think that will help pricing powers going forward and so the next 18 months will probably be good for cement companies in terms of their earnings as well as the share price, and that is the other domestic segment we are focusing on.: One of the reasons why FMCG has done well is that the stocks have been underperforming massively. Whenever markets start going down on a relative basis, FMCG starts to do well. The other thing is that as we look at the situation just now, monsoons are looking fairly good, cropping has been good, and it looks like the crop will exceed last year's number by a fair margin. We will have a record agricultural crop and when that happens, it will help rural demand. So, FMCG is going to be one of the gainers from rural demand and they will probably benefit from the same time, we have been quite negative on the consumer staple companies and the main reason for that has been valuation. We find it very expensive at these valuations even though these are great companies, and have a lot of the cash flow. The ROEs and ROCs are very high but just given where they trade on valuation, we have been avoiding it. From a structural perspective, as the consumer gets richer and per capita income goes up every year, then it probably doubles over the next six, seven, eight at that time, the share of wallet of consumer staples will go down and consumer discretionary will go up. For us, one way to play the consumer story in India has not been the staples but some of the discretionary names. That is why we have been quite cautious on the consumer staple side.I find the markets having a time correction good. We had quite a steep correction and the markets have seen a bounce-back since then. The macro in India is very good if you look at the current account deficit, fiscal deficit, the RBI monetary policy, inflation, and interest rates falling. The macro looks very good. We are the fastest growing economy on a GDP basis. At the same time, earnings are just the valuations are not cheap and earnings are not coming. We will probably end this quarter also with a single digit earnings growth which in some sense if you think about it, earnings are growing at less than nominal GDP growth. So, for the market to see a sustained rise, you probably see earnings need to start coming back. We need to start seeing double digit earning growth come back. But in the meanwhile, it is very good for us that we are going through a time correction because it helps absorb some of the recent gains. 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