Playbook: Trump's Epstein evolution

Politico

19-07-2025

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With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
Good Saturday morning. This is Ankush Khardori. Get in touch.
COMING TOMORROW: Where some hear 'America First,' others hear 'isolationist' — a label that Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) says sounds like 'a slur' to him in today's political climate, he tells Playbook's Dasha Burns on this week's episode of 'The Conversation.'
'I don't want to withdraw from the world,' Schmitt said. 'I think that it's viewing the world as it is, understanding what our core national interests are, using diplomacy first. And if we have to engage, it's with overwhelming force. It's kind of a Jacksonian view of foreign policy. And I think that is where the people are at. If you get across this country, especially on the Republican voters, that's where a majority of Republican voters are at.' The full episode drops tomorrow. Watch the clip
DRIVING THE DAY
UNDER SIEGE: It's the story that continues to grip Washington: the Trump administration's handling of the so-called Epstein files.
If the White House was hoping to move on quickly from the controversy, that became harder this week after The Wall Street Journal published a story about a suggestive letter that President Donald Trump allegedly sent to Jeffrey Epstein over 20 years ago. Trump immediately and strenuously denied the report, and yesterday followed through on his threat to sue the Journal. POLITICO hasn't independently verified the letter.
The potential ripple effects could be significant.
Trump's lawsuit could become the most important legal clash yet between Trump and the press, as well as a test of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp (the parent company of the paper) as a media institution.
Trump has recently managed to secure settlements in litigation against ABC and CBS' parent company. Given that backdrop and Trump's history of litigiousness, it is likely the Journal's story was heavily lawyered. A spokesperson for the paper said in a statement: 'We have full confidence in the rigor and accuracy of our reporting, and will vigorously defend against any lawsuit.'
Trump's lawsuit carries two potential downsides for the president: (1) the story will stay in the news as long as the case continues; and (2) the Journal's lawyers may seek to depose Trump and question him under oath if the case proceeds to discovery.
On top of that, the ongoing controversy threatens some of Trump's greatest political strengths — his ability to influence political narratives and, in particular, his ability to position himself as a political outsider, as Michael Kruse writes for POLITICO Magazine.
'The Epstein story isn't going away (or at least wasn't?) because it complicates this superstory,' Michael writes, and because it 'suggests to the legions who've been partial to Trump that actually maybe that's not right — that actually maybe he's less one of us and more part of them.'
The rolling controversy and the Journal's story also raise questions about what the heck is actually going on here.
There are three potential scenarios, as your author wrote earlier this week: (1) There's an actual cover-up at hand; (2) Trump officials really believed the Epstein conspiracy theories until they got into government; or (3) they never believed them and were always misleading voters.
There are other possibilities — for instance, that Trump is protecting an ally — but they tend to require more elaborate and questionable assumptions. (There are also variations. Maybe some of them believed the theories and others didn't … you get the drift.)
The second scenario remains firmly in play. Perhaps Trump — as well as VP JD Vance and FBI Director Kash Patel, among others — were sincere in their questions about what is in the government's investigative files and the circumstances surrounding Epstein's death, but they have now discovered their concerns were misguided.
The third scenario also cannot be ruled out. Epstein was a subject of great interest among Trump's supporters, and there was apparent political upside in indulging their theories.
But what about that first scenario?
Let's be very clear: There's no direct evidence of an intentional cover-up on the part of Trump, the White House or the DOJ. You can also credibly argue — as Trump has — that if there were damaging revelations about him in the government's files, someone might have leaked them to the press during the Biden administration.
The Trump possibility has been the subject of hushed discussions this week in Washington, both among some members of the political class and — as your author can attest — some former DOJ lawyers, who are temperamentally skeptical and professionally trained to ask difficult and at times uncomfortable questions, including questions that ultimately go nowhere.
Here are some potentially relevant data points that raise serious questions about Trump's evolving statements:
(1) the existence of the letter at issue in the Journal story (assuming, of course, that it was accurately attributed to Trump, which again he has denied);
(2) Trump's effort to turn the page at a Cabinet meeting last week by saying people should ignore the conspiracy theories and move on (at least on its face, this is hard to square with Trump's history of developing and pursuing baseless conspiracy theories and his persistent interest in years-old matters like the Steele dossier);
(3) Trump's effort to pin the blame on Democrats, notwithstanding the fact that interest in Epstein has largely been driven in political circles by the right, including by Trump, Vance and Patel, among others;
(4) Trump's qualified statements indicating that he supports the release of only 'credible' information and only 'pertinent' grand jury testimony, as well as his unprompted suggestion in an interview last year that there might be 'phony stuff' in the government's files (these are not qualifiers that you tend to hear from Trump in other situations); and
(5) Trump's instruction to AG Pam Bondi to seek the release of 'any and all pertinent Grand Jury testimony, subject to Court approval.'
The DOJ officially sought the release of that grand jury testimony yesterday, citing 'the public interest' in the government's investigative work.
It remains to be seen what the court will do, but as Erica Orden and Kyle Cheney write for POLITICO, the grand jury testimony likely represents only a small fraction of what is in the government's investigative files.
The points above at best comprise limited circumstantial evidence, but in a highly charged political environment, Trump's words matter, and the goalpost-shifting from the administration over the last week or so begs close scrutiny of the president's words.
In response to a request for comment, White House comms director Steven Cheung provided the following statement: 'This is another bullshit story that amounts to nothing more than a leftist journalist working in conjunction with the Democrats to publish fake news in an attempt to smear President Trump just like they did with the now proven Russian Collusion Hoax.'
9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US
1. FOR YOUR RADAR: The Trump administration completed a large-scale prisoner swap with Venezuela yesterday, sending about 250 Venezuelans who had been deported and imprisoned in El Salvador back to their home country in exchange for 10 U.S. nationals, CNN's Kristen Holmes and colleagues report. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on X that the released Americans were 'on their way to freedom,' adding 'Every wrongfully detained American in Venezuela is now free and back in our homeland.' Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said in a separate post has approved the release of 'all the Venezuelan nationals detained in our country, accused of being part of the criminal organization Tren de Aragua.'
More details: Mellissa Harper, the acting assistant director of enforcement and removal operations for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, revealed in legal papers filed to a federal judge that 'the Trump administration 'obtained assurances' from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government that it would permit its citizens to return to the United States for legal proceedings, if required by a court,' POLITICO's Kyle Cheney reports.
2. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The director of Israel's Mossad spy agency asked White House special envoy Steve Witkoff this week for U.S. help convincing countries, including Ethiopia, Indonesia and Libya, to take hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza, Axios' Barak Ravid scoops. In their meeting, Mossad spy chief David Barnea 'suggested that the U.S. offer incentives to those countries and help Israel convince them, though 'Witkoff was non-committal, and it's not clear if the U.S. will actively weigh in on this issue.' The push from Israel comes after Trump walked back a proposal in February to remove two million Palestinians from Gaza following significant pushback from Arab countries.
Meanwhile, a Hamas spokesperson said yesterday that while the group would prefer reaching an interim truce with Gaza 'it could revert to insisting on a full package deal to end the conflict,' if the latest round of negotiations falters, per Reuters. 'Hamas has repeatedly offered to release all the hostages held in Gaza and conclude a permanent ceasefire agreement, and Israel has refused, Abu Ubaida added in a televised speech.'
Elsewhere in the region: 'Israel and Syria agree to ceasefire, US ambassador to Turkey says,' by Reuters' Jasper Ward: 'The ceasefire announcement came after the U.S. worked to put an end to the conflict. … It also followed what appeared to be a de-escalation of the conflict after government troops withdrew from Sweida, where violence had been centered.'
3. THE ODD COUPLE: 'A Kentucky Republican and a California liberal: The unlikely alliance pushing Trump on Epstein,' by POLITICO's Liz Crampton and colleagues: 'Leading the charge for Congress to vote on publicizing Epstein-related records are Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). The odd couple — a libertarian from rural Kentucky and a progressive from Silicon Valley — is piecing together Republican and Democratic support for the House to take an up-or-down vote on releasing the so-called Epstein files. If successful, their efforts would further complicate Trump's ability to move on from the spiraling scandal that has angered his political base.'
Bipartisanship lives: 'I do believe that there are issues that populists on the right and left can collaborate on,' Khanna said in an interview. 'In this case, it's about going after the corruption in our government. Rich and powerful men shouldn't have impunity from accountability. And that's something that both people on the left and right are sick of.'
4. DEEP IN THE HEART: With Texas AG Ken Paxton facing scrutiny for his divorce, and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn slipping in primary polling — Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is seemingly testing the waters of the heated Texas Senate race. Though the Houston-area Republican has yet to formally announce a bid, he's launched a new six-figure ad buy in the Houston and Dallas media markets marketing himself 'as a family man, showing himself with his wife and three young children,' Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports: 'Hunt has been running a separate ad in the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Waco, and Amarillo areas highlighting his military background.'
In the blue corner: 'Joe Rogan's Latest Guest Might Turn Texas Blue,' by Adam Wren for POLITICO Magazine: 'State Rep. James Talarico opens up about what it's like to go on the most coveted podcast in politics, his potential run for Senate and how his party needs to change.'
5. HITTING REWIND: U.S. District Judge Paul Gardephe formally dismissed Trump's 2023 lawsuit against veteran journalist Bob Woodward and publishing house Simon & Schuster yesterday, CNN's Brian Stelter reports. Though Trump alleged in the 2023 suit that Woodward released audio from their interviews without his consent, Gardephe argued 'it appears unlikely' that Trump 'can adequately plead a plausible copyright interest in 'The Trump Tapes.'' Trump had initially sought around $50 million in damages, claiming Woodward's interviews were 'protected material, subject to various limitations on use and distribution.'
6. TALES FROM THE CRYPTO: The House's approval Thursday of a bill laying out a regulatory framework for the crypto token known as stablecoins could prove whether the rapidly growing crypto industry can be seen as a financial disruptor, POLITICO's Declan Harty reports. 'The crypto faithful have long held the market up as the next frontier of finance,' though the 'the industry's ambitions have faced repeated roadblocks, including, until now, a reluctance among policymakers to legitimize it with new, tailored regulations.'
7. LOST IN THE WILDERNESS: The DNC's planned audit of the party's 2024 losses will largely 'steer clear of the decisions made by the Biden-turned-Harris campaign and will focus more heavily instead on actions taken by allied groups,' NYT's Reid Epstein and Shane Goldmacher report. The so-called after-action review is expected to side step questions around whether former President Joe Biden 'should have run for re-election in the first place, whether he should have exited the race earlier than he did and whether former Vice President Kamala Harris was the right choice to replace him.'
What to expect: 'Party officials described the draft document as focusing on the 2024 election as a whole, but not on the presidential campaign.' Though, 'D.N.C. officials cautioned that interviews were still taking place and the report's conclusions might change before it is released this fall.'
8. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: Nevada could bear the brunt of Trump's megabill, with up to 100,000 residents facing a loss of insurance coverage as a result of some of the tax and Medicaid measures, NBC's Adam Edelman reports. 'Unlike some other states, which may be able to shift funds around in their budgets to build financial support for affected residents, Nevada's hands are largely tied … It has no state income tax and has a state constitutional provision requiring a two-thirds majority to raise revenue.'
9. AI LOOK AHEAD: 'Trump set to unveil AI orders to boost US edge over China,' by Semafor's Gina Chon: 'Pushing for speedier permitting for data center buildouts, promoting US tech exports, and other moves that would facilitate the nation's advancements are expected to be part of [next week's White House] rollout. … Trump is also expected to give a speech on his AI vision after months of private discussions between administration officials, tech executives, think tanks, and others.'
CLICKER — 'The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics,' edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies
GREAT WEEKEND READS:
— ''Great Enough to Blow Any City Off the Map': On Site at the First Nuclear Explosion,' by Garrett Graff for POLITICO Magazine: 'The men who set off the nuclear age tell the tale in their own words.'
— 'The Canadians Are Furious,' by N.Y. Mag's Simon van Zuylen-Wood: 'Trump accomplished what was once considered impossible: Our northern neighbors have united against us.'
— 'Is the U.S. Ready for the Next War?' by The New Yorker's Dexter Filkins: 'With global conflicts increasingly shaped by drones and A.I., the American military risks losing its dominance.'
— 'A Little-Known Microsoft Program Could Expose the Defense Department to Chinese Hackers,' by ProPublica's Renee Dudley: 'The Pentagon bans foreign citizens from accessing highly sensitive data, but Microsoft bypasses this by using engineers in China and elsewhere to remotely instruct American 'escorts' who may lack expertise to identify malicious code.'
— ''Even God Cannot Hear Us Here': What I Witnessed Inside an ICE Women's Prison,' by Rümeysa Öztürk for Vanity Fair: 'Tufts University doctoral student Rümeysa Öztürk opens up for the first time about her shocking arrest and 45 days in a South Louisiana processing facility. She recalls the generous and compassionate women who helped her through this harrowing ordeal.'
— 'Kansas City poured millions into a grocery store. It still may close,' by WaPo's Annie Gowen: 'More cities and states are experimenting with the concept of city-owned grocery stores, but these experiments often don't account for social issues.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
IN MEMORIAM — David Mazzarella, a reporter, editor and newspaper executive for 45 years, has died, his family announced. 'Over the course of his career, Mazzarella was editor at four newspapers, including USA TODAY at a time when it was one of the most widely circulated daily newspapers in the United States. At various times he was also a foreign correspondent, a publisher, a regional circulation director and head of an international newspaper operation,' his family writes. 'In an article for Brill's Content magazine on the improvements happening at that time at [USA TODAY], media critic Howard Kurtz suggested that Mazzarella may be 'the best newspaper editor in America no one's ever heard of.''
— Ed Feulner, founder, trustee and longest serving president of The Heritage Foundation has died, the organization announced. After founding the organization in 1973, Feulner served as president for 37 years, and 'What started as a small outpost for conservative ideas became — under Ed's tireless leadership — the intellectual arsenal for the Reagan Revolution and the modern conservative movement,' the organization said in a statement.
TRANSITION — Kara Lynum has launched KML Strategies, a law firm helping other firms, organizations, and individuals navigate immigration policy changes. Lynum previously served as the DHS' acting general counsel and deputy general counsel and is a Senate Judiciary Committee alum.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Ron Estes (R-Kan.) … WSJ's Rebecca Ballhaus … WaPo's Isaac Arnsdorf … Capitol Counsel's Lyndon Boozer … UL Standards & Engagement's Jeff Marootian … LSG's Ben Jenkins … Larry McCarthy … Rick Dearborn … Eric Lichtblau (6-0) … Andrea Porwoll … POLITICO's Rachael Bade, Lauren Gardner, Luis Pinto de Sa, Gregory Svirnovskiy, Massimo Artista and Matt Comer … Joe Goetz … Kelly Magsamen … Lindsee Gentry Towers … Maria Giannopoulos … former Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) (7-0) … NBC's Alex Johnson … Stephen Ching … Stephanie Valencia … Atossa Araxia Abrahamian … The Hill's Rema Rahman … Mary Newman Fox … Andrew Mizsak of Main Street Consultants … Ron Faucheux … Ruby Gordon of Carbon Solutions Group … Ron Brown of Heidrick & Struggles … Jim Davenport of Thorn Run Partners … Rachel Robinson (1-0-3)
THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):
ABC 'This Week': Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) … LA Mayor Karen Bass. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Sarah Isgur and Molly Ball.
FOX 'Fox News Sunday': Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) … Sen. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) . Panel: Michael Allen, Marie Harf, Doug Heye and Annie Linskey.
CBS 'Face the Nation': Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick … Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) … acting ICE Director Todd Lyons … LA Mayor Karen Bass. Polling special: Anthony Salvanto.
CNN 'State of the Union': Beto O'Rourke … Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.)… Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Adam Boehler. Panel: Bryan Lanza, Karen Finney, Jaime Herrera Beutler and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.).
NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) … Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) … Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) Panel: Yoni Appelbaum, Jessica Taylor, Tia Mitchell and Michael Warren.
Fox News 'Sunday Morning Futures': Senate Majority Leader John Thune … David Sacks … Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.). Panel: Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Curtis Sliwa.
MSNBC 'PoliticsNation': Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) … Adelita Grijalva.
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