Did Muhammad Yunus doom Bangladesh's democratic future?

India Today

11 hours ago

One year ago, the skies over Dhaka blazed not with celebration, but with fire. In the days leading up to 5 August 2024, Bangladesh was in open revolt. As Sheikh Hasina fled the country by helicopter - driven out by an overwhelming wave of student-led protests and a nation wearied by authoritarianism — it appeared, for a fleeting moment, that genuine change had arrived. The streets erupted in cheers.advertisement Democracy, it seemed, was within reach. Yet twelve months on, hope has given way to uncertainty. Violent communal unrest, deepening youth unemployment, a resurgent Islamist movement, and an overstretched interim government have together stalled Bangladesh's revolution in a dangerous state of limbo.
A Revolution Without DirectionThe uprising that shook the country was never just about quotas for government jobs. It was about years of pent-up frustration - a sidelined youth, silenced dissent, and an economy that benefited only the privileged few. The civil service quota reform protests were merely the spark. The explosion was long coming.More than half of civil service roles were reserved for groups including women, families of war veterans, and the disabled. But beneath the figures lay a deeper discontent: the widespread belief that Bangladesh's meritocracy had been dismantled - and that in Hasina's Bangladesh, hard work held no value.The costs were catastrophic. According to the United Nations, over 1,400 people lost their lives in the July–August 2024 uprising. Streets became warzones. Police stations were set ablaze. Students were gunned down. Entire neighbourhoods were reduced to rubble. This wasn't merely a protest — it was a rupture.Into that void stepped Muhammad Yunus - Nobel laureate, microfinance pioneer, and the reluctant head of an interim regime. Backed by elements within the military and opposition leaders, Yunus promised a national reset: eleven reform commissions, national unity, and a pathway to elections.Promise Meets ParalysisYet democracy requires more than ousting the old guard — it demands the creation of something new. And there, Bangladesh continues to flounder. The student movement that dismantled Hasina's regime now finds itself sidelined. Political parties that were expected to usher in a new chapter - including the BNP - remain gridlocked over election timing. The interim government insists on April; the BNP demands February. There is no consensus. No roadmap. Just stalemate.Meanwhile, the economy is disintegrating. The youth who marched in the streets — the unemployed, the desperate, the hopeful - remain suspended in limbo. Today, around 30% of Bangladeshi youth are neither in employment nor education or training. Among women, unemployment sits at 23%, with even higher figures in rural regions, where farms struggle and factories shutter.advertisementBangladesh's economic backbone — its garment industry - is haemorrhaging. The Beximco Group, one of the nation's largest conglomerates, has shut down over a dozen factories, resulting in over 40,000 job losses. Business leaders linked to the previous regime have either been imprisoned or fled. Trade unions have warned of systemic collapse. No relief has arrived.To make matters worse, the global stage has turned hostile. Late last year, the United States imposed a crippling 35% tariff on Bangladeshi garment exports. More recently, another 20% tariff was introduced — and foreign aid has dried up. Over 20,000 development workers have lost their jobs. Foreign investors are retreating.Despite summits and training schemes, the interim government has failed to restore economic confidence. Private investment has dipped from 24% to 22.5% of GDP. Hope is evaporating - and so is forward momentum.Dreams Deferred, Divisions DeepenedNowhere is the collapse more keenly felt than among the young students and workers who risked everything a year ago. They marched for dignity, fairness, and a better future. Today, many are unemployed, unheard, and increasingly unsure of why they fought at all.advertisementBut the failures of the transition are not just economic - they are moral. In the vacuum left behind by Hasina's fall, a new threat has emerged: Islamist resurgence.Groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, long banned from public life, are now staging enormous rallies. Their rhetoric is louder, more militant, and more visible than at any point in the past decade. And they are not merely shouting. They are acting - within communities, in the streets, and through rising acts of violence.Since Hasina's departure, there has been an alarming spike in anti-Hindu violence. Over 1,000 incidents were reported within weeks of the collapse. Mobs looted homes, burned down businesses, and desecrated more than 150 temples. Twenty-three Hindus were killed. Thousands have been displaced.A State Retreating From Its PeopleThe state has largely remained silent. Police presence was minimal. Arrests were scarce. Justice - even scarcer. While the interim government acknowledges 88 major communal incidents between August and October 2024, human rights organisations estimate the real figure is significantly higher.These attacks have largely been traced to radical Islamist groups emboldened by the power vacuum. With the secular Awami League gone, Bangladesh's minorities - especially Hindus - now find themselves defenceless.advertisementAnd it's not only Hindus. Sufi shrines have been desecrated. Secular bloggers hounded. Women's rights groups threatened. Bangladesh's already delicate pluralism is being ripped apart by a surge of majoritarianism and populist religious politics.Experts warn that any future government — whether the BNP, a student-led coalition, or another alliance - may be forced to pander to these Islamist forces. That would likely mean rolling back reforms, watering down human rights protections, and suffocating dissent even further.Despite repeated denials from the interim government, on-the-ground reports suggest radical clerics now hold more influence in many villages than state officials. In some areas, they are reportedly intimidating voters, silencing opposition voices, and usurping state authority altogether.This is not a democracy in progress - it is a democracy in retreat.Where Are the Reformers Now?With the Awami League dismantled and the machinery of the state in chaos, minority communities are leaving. Some flee to India. Others disappear into Dhaka's sprawling slums. The homes, businesses, and temples they leave behind are often destroyed.Meanwhile, the original student revolutionaries are splintering. Some have entered politics, demanding a new constitution before elections are held. Their platform calls for secularism, equal rights, and meaningful reform. They refuse to participate in elections without these guarantees.advertisementIt is a bold position - but one rooted in reality. The system that collapsed with Hasina's exit was broken long before her helicopter lifted off. Cosmetic changes will not suffice.A Nation at the EdgeSo where does Bangladesh go from here? The options are few and fraught. Rush elections — and risk violence, low turnout, or a chaotic mandate. Delay them — and invite accusations of dictatorship and disenfranchisement.The interim government must walk a tightrope. It cannot appease all factions, but it must restore legitimacy before collapse becomes inevitable.And that brings us back to the core question: was it worth it?The revolution brought down a powerful regime. It was born of hope — for justice, dignity, and democracy. But in the aftermath has come only disorder: broken promises, rising extremism, economic despair.Revolutions are not judged by what they destroy — but by what they create. One year after Bangladesh sought to reset its future, that reset remains unfinished. The ideals of equality, tolerance, and opportunity are still out of reach.And as the promise remains unfulfilled, the next generation — the ones who risked everything - may lose faith. The story of Bangladesh is not over. But it stands at a critical juncture. The decisions taken in the months ahead — about elections, reforms, and justice — will determine whether this remains a nation in transition, or devolves into chaos.When protesters climbed the palace roof last August, they didn't just bring down a ruler. They raised the bar of expectation. If those expectations collapse - the next fall may be far more dangerous.- EndsTune InTrending Reel