UFC 317 predictions, odds, full card preview: Can Ilia Topuria take over lightweight?

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19 hours ago

Ilia Topuria's run to the top of the MMA mountain has been magical. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
International Fight Week 2025 in Las Vegas has arrived with UFC 317 and a pair of thrilling title fight matchups at lightweight and featherweight.
In the evening's highly anticipated headliner, the undefeated former featherweight king Ilia Topuria collides with former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. Violence is imminent in the vacant title tilt, as Topuria hopes to see his dominance translate full-time to 155 pounds. On the other side of the equation, Brazil's "Do Bronx" believes he still has one more title run in him after one of the most impressive and entertaining resurgences in MMA history that culminated with his first title win in 2021.
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Speaking of dominant champions, flyweight's Alexandre Pantoja is on the hunt for his fourth consecutive title defense when tasked with Kiwi KO artist Kai Kara-France. Directly before that, the division will see the possible next title contender determined when Brandon Royval meets Joshua Van.
There's a lot to like on the upcoming UFC summer slate, and it all begins with UFC 317.
👑 UFC 317's lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
(Joseph Raines, Yahoo Sports)
Charles Oliveira is ready to begin his second title run. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
155 pounds, vacant title fight: Ilia Topuria (-450) vs. Charles Oliveira (+350)
The thought of Topuria as a permanent injection into the mix of 155-pound killers is still almost too good to be true. Yet, here we are, starting him off with one of the most consistent deliverers of chaos.
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Truthfully, Topuria did a great job of providing the breakdown work for us this week on Monday's edition of "The Ariel Helwani Show." As much as the world should all love Oliveira and his incredible improvements over the years, delivering banger after banger time in and time out, he's a match made in heaven for Topuria.
It's no secret that Oliveira gets hit, and he plays possum better than most ever have, thanks to his world-class jiu-jitsu. But when you get hit by Topuria, you don't recover, and imagining the additional danger of his power at lightweight is a scary thought. In "El Matador's" previous lightweight appearance, he folded Jai Herbert like Sunday clothing.
For the 35-year-old Oliveira to be as big of an underdog as he is should come as a surprise at first glance. He's the undeniable more versatile fighter of the two, possessing a Swiss-Army knife-like striking offense with that aforementioned submission game in his back pocket. Even the wrestling acumen of Oliveira shone in his recent victory over Michael Chandler. This isn't to say Topuria isn't also supremely well-rounded at the highest level. He is, and he's so damn good at what he does that he's expected to dogwalk an all-time great in a heavier division.
As he indicated in his prediction for the fight, Topuria will live up to his nickname to the fullest, and his speed and power will execute Oliveira in another brilliant performance. This guy is the truth, and Oliveira simply has to hope he lands any eight points of contact first, or catches a wild submission mid-scramble.
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Pick: Topuria
125 pounds: (C) Alexandre Pantoja (-275) vs. Kai Kara-France (+220)
Pantoja has entered that territory of being so damn good that everyone knows it and doesn't seem to care. It's a sad reality that makes the "Cannibal" the most underrated fighter on Earth, but his fights are always must-see appointments.
Against Kara-France, Pantoja is in a familiar position, with plenty of firepower coming his way. "KKF" has been a notorious threat on the feet at 125 pounds, particularly with his smooth and impactful boxing ability. Although that's the clear X-factor for Kara-France in this matchup, Pantoja's own striking acumen continues to get slept on as his reign extends. That's possibly a byproduct of the strikers he's beaten over the years, but he's more than willing to go to war when necessary.
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Put that against Pantoja's X-factor, which is his superior grappling and top control. The flyweight champ is one of, if not the best scrambler in MMA. Pantoja getting hold of his challenger is inevitable, no matter who they are. He might not submit you, but he'll have his way for the most part, threatening at every turn.
Outside of a puncher's chance, the chances are slim for Kara-France in the co-main event.
Pick: Pantoja
125 pounds: Brandon Royval (+105) vs. Joshua Van (-125)
After yet another Manel Kape withdrawal, UFC 317 gets one of its most compelling matchups with the short-notice addition of Van against one-time title challenger Royval.
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This has all the makings to be the Fight of the Night, folks. Van has very quickly proven to be, or at least has every capability of being, a future champion. The 23-year-old has begun his run, riding a four-fight win streak into this huge potential title contender matchup, and put away Bruno Gustavo de Silva as recently as UFC 316 earlier this month.
Talk about wasting no time.
On the other hand, the perennial top flyweight Royval hasn't fought since October when he picked up a thrilling split decision win over Tatsuro Taira. "Raw Dog" doesn't know how to be in a bad fight, and against Van, he's playing the veteran role with far superior experience and level of competition. This matchup embodies too much too soon for the young Van, who has to get past the No. 1-ranked contender here.
As a striker, Van is progressing at a wildly rapid pace. Royval is a gamer, ready to fight anywhere the action goes. I'm not sure we'll see a finish in this one, but it will be three rounds of chaos, seeing Royval comfortably take over and overwhelm the active youngster.
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Pick: Royval
Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano are going to try this song and dance one more time. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
(Cooper Neill via Getty Images)
155 pounds: Beneil Dariush (+100) vs. Renato Moicano (-120)
We're going to rinse and repeat a bit with Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano, as the fight was supposed to first take place at UFC 311 in January. Ultimately, the last-second shakeup of Arman Tsarukyan pulling out of his title fight led to Moicano losing to the then-lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Outside of that, nothing has changed for these two contenders.
Dariush has had an additional five months to recover and regather himself since his last appearance in December 2023. The layoff is certainly a concern, but for Dariush's position and the damage he took in his previous two bouts, it could have been the best thing for him. Accompanied by this matchup, Dariush is in a prime position to rebound.
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Moicano himself has pointed out the hilarity of age claims towards Dariush when they're the same age. (That grey hair will get you, man.)
Anyway, as for the fight itself, these guys are almost the same fighter, except Dariush does everything better than Moicano. His lone setback would be his durability, as well as whether his chin is cracked. Even then, Moicano isn't a finisher with strikes by any stretch of the imagination.
I can see this looking similar to Dariush's win over Mateusz Gamrot, which had plenty of fun scrambles and grappling exchanges in it, but was primarily a display of Dariush controlling every aspect of the bout.
Pick: Dariush
135 pounds: Payton Talbott (+150) vs. Felipe Lima (-185)
Bantamweight prospect wars are the best kind of prospect wars.
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Payton Talbott is not getting a cozy layup in his rebound attempt after career loss No. 1 to Raoni Barcelos in January. Felipe Lima has been perfect since he lost his debut fight, and he'll keep the ball rolling here against Talbott.
Clearly, Talbott was exposed a bit in the grappling department thanks to Barcelos, and Lima will look to, and can, exploit that. We've seen some crazy striking exchanges and finishes from Lima, but he's been able to submit his opposition in impressive fashion, too.
On the feet, Talbott is dangerous, but he will need to channel his aggression to help work in defensive grappling situations. Otherwise, he's in for another long night. Lima is just well-rounded and smart enough, with slightly more experience, to take the spotlight firmly off the Contender Series alumni.
Pick: Lima
Preliminary notes
Somehow, Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez completely snuck up on me here. It's been 11 months since Cortez's main event loss to Rose Namajunas, and she enters this matchup with Araujo, who stylistically matches up very similarly. After that impressive Karine Silva performance, the odds for this fight confuse the hell out of me.
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Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Terrance McKinney is your car crash of the night, so brace for impact. Jack Hermansson is finally back after slowing down the Joe Pyfer contender rise, and Niko Price looks to prove he still has something left in the tank.
UFC 317 is lacking more star power than you'd hope for these annual events, but the violence potential is high for these prelims, and that couldn't be more needed after UFC Baku. (Let's never speak of it again.)
Quick picks: