More than trade on the agenda at GCC-ASEAN-China summit

Arab News

28-05-2025

https://arab.news/69yar
Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday hosted a historic trilateral summit between China, the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and heads of state and government from the GCC and ASEAN states gathered, for the first time, to establish a new platform for cooperation. The political gathering is being followed by two days of economic summitry, in which business leaders are discussing trade and investment opportunities. If the recommendations adopted at the summit are fully implemented, there will be important strategic repercussions, with China playing a greater geopolitical role.
Judging by the wide-ranging discussions taking place over several days and the lengthy statement issued after Tuesday's summit, the ambitions of the new gathering are quite high, especially for the first meeting of such a diverse group. It is, of course, the height of irony that China, the US' chief rival and adversary, is joining two blocs considered to be close American partners.
The new grouping is a colossus and China is the superpower in this constellation. The combined populations of the 18 countries at the meeting exceeds 2 billion, or 25 percent of humanity. Their aggregated gross domestic product is more than $24 trillion, close to 23 percent of the global economy. The potential for economies of scale and synergies between the countries is enormous.
Some of that potential has already been realized. For example, China and ASEAN are the leading trading partners for each other. They signed a free trade agreement in 2002 and have recently wrapped up negotiations to update that deal. Last year, China-ASEAN two-way trade was worth close to $1 trillion, accounting for about 29 percent of ASEAN's total trade. Similarly, China is the GCC's top trading partner, accounting for more than 20 percent of GCC trade. It is the destination of more than 25 percent of GCC petrochemical exports.
The ambitions of the new gathering are quite high, especially for the first meeting of such a diverse group
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
Trade, or the need to adapt to the US trade war, may have been the trigger for some participants to come to these events. They aim to coordinate a response to new American tariffs, which have affected all the countries in attendance, and explore how to mitigate their effects by increasing access to new markets.
The new policy of economic nationalism adopted by the Trump administration is making it difficult to continue to trade with the US, as this grouping's products become less competitive due to high import tariffs. By expanding trade through this trilateral setup, they hope to expand in other markets.
There are other objectives. One is to restore some certainty to world markets, which have been jittery since the US imposed its new tariffs. The global economic outlook is being revised downward as well, with many organizations predicting slower growth in the coming years. For GCC countries, this is bad news, because their products thrive when the global economy is growing and suffer during recessions or slowdowns.
Another objective is to restore faith in the multilateral system. While the US has expressed skepticism about the World Trade Organization and the global trading system generally, Tuesday's summit sought to rebuild trust. Using reassuring language, it stressed the need to 'strengthen confidence in the rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core to protect businesses, consumers worldwide and the livelihoods of people in our regions.' It also reaffirmed 'the central and indispensable role of the World Trade Organization at the core of the rules-based multilateral trading system, which provides a predictable, transparent, nondiscriminatory and open global trading system.'
But the gathering is not only about economic cooperation. It is more strategic. The nine-page joint statement issued at the end of Tuesday's meeting covered a wide range of topics, including international and regional issues, proposals for three-way ASEAN-China-GCC energy security cooperation, fighting terrorism and coordinating foreign policy. For example, the summit adopted a fairly detailed and proactive set of recommendations on Gaza and the two-state solution.
It is, of course, ironic that the US, which has played a singular role since the Second World War in advocating free trade and building the UN, the World Trade Organization and other fixtures of multilateralism, is now abandoning that system. On the other hand, developing countries, which in the past had their doubts, are now championing free trade.
The participant sent thinly veiled messages to rogue states and countries flouting international law and norms
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
While the US is retreating from multilateralism, China appears to be embracing it. The Kuala Lumpur meeting stressed that idea more than once through the final communique and interventions by heads of state and government. They also sent thinly veiled messages to rogue states and countries flouting international law and norms.
The summit urged the promotion of 'peace, security, stability and prosperity' through 'mutual respect' and 'adherence to international law, including the UN Charter,' which means 'good neighborliness' and respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality and territorial integrity of other states, as well as noninterference in their internal affairs. It also called for 'refraining from the use of force, or the threat of use of force, and the settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful means.' These words and phrases were meant to address conflicts and disputes around the world by advocating a rules-based system centered on the UN.
Another historical irony is that it was the US that pushed for the establishment of ASEAN in 1967 to help stop the spread of communism, which had taken hold in China, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The organization played a critical role in containing the spread of communism and Chinese influence and deepened the US' presence in Southeast Asia. Today, however, ASEAN includes communist governments among its member states. And although the bloc was meant to check China's growing influence, they have now become each other's top trading partner.
Although the three groups (the GCC, ASEAN and China) are equal in the new trilateral setup, China is effectively the senior partner because of its population, GDP, military power and permanent membership in the UN Security Council.
While the new grouping will bring China closer to the ASEAN and GCC, two blocs that are very close to the US, it would be a mistake to think that Beijing will 'replace' the US as a security partner. What the ASEAN and GCC are doing is diversifying their strategic partnerships, while maintaining their close security partnership with the US. This diversification means that China may play a greater role in the security and stability of both the Gulf and Southeast Asia.