Brazil 2025 Robusta harvest in full swing and could beat estimates, experts say
"Field reports indicate strong yields, and expectations are that the crop may even exceed initial forecasts," said Jonas Ferraresso, a coffee agronomist who advises Brazilian farmers.
Public and private sources are pointing towards a record crop, Ferraresso said.
Crop collection for Cooabriel - Brazil's largest Conilon coffee cooperative - in the state of Espirito Santo is in full swing, the organization's President Luiz Carlos Bastianello said in an interview, estimating that around 25% of the total harvest had been completed.
According to broker StoneX, 23.4% of Brazil's expected 2025 Robusta crop had been harvested as of May 26.
"The expectation we have now is really for a larger harvest, possibly larger than the 2022 harvest, a harvest with reasonably good quality as well," Bastianello said, adding that production in Espirito Santo is forecast at over 17 million 60-kilogram (132.3 lb) bags.
In the 2022 harvest, some 16 million 60-kilogram bags were harvested, Bastianello said.
Unseasonable rainfall in the region during the current harvest is not an issue and could suggest a good Conilon crop in 2026, he added.
Prices for the commodity have declined as the new crop is collected, said Fernando Maximiliano, coffee market intelligence manager for broker StoneX in Brazil.
"Robusta coffee (prices) have been falling significantly in recent weeks. This is already a sign of the arrival of this new harvest," Maximiliano said.
Earlier this week, Robusta coffee futures on ICE fell to a 5-1/2 month low of $4,550 per metric ton.
The potential for a record crop is causing "significant urgency" among Robusta growers to harvest and sell, Ferraresso said.
"The concern now is how this increased supply might affect prices in the coming months."
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