Auckland FC v Melbourne Victory: The key factors as Auckland's A-League finals quest begins
Formation
It's expected Auckland FC will revert to a 3-5-2 shape tonight, used in the last clash with Victory. It means more bodies in central midfield, a stronger defensive shape and more chances for the wide players, particularly Francis de Vries, to get forward. However, it can be tricky, given they have favoured 4-4-2 for most of the campaign and it is imperative that the wing backs resist the temptation to sit too deep. Brimmer is likely to start alongside Gallegos and Verstraete to form the midfield axis, while Jesse Randall will be used up front alongside May, in the absence of Max Mata, who didn't travel due to a hamstring strain.
Preparation
Auckland FC have benefited from a week off and are refreshed and ready to go. A planned intra-squad match last Friday was called off after 20 minutes due to torrential rain but coach Steve Corica has been pleased with the work this week, while those close to the squad have noted the extra intensity.
May hasn't trained fully this week due to a knee knock but will start. The team trained close to the central city yesterday – at the home of the Port Melbourne Sharks – before the players had a free afternoon to relax.
Conditions
The forecast isn't great for tonight. The weather has closed in here in Melbourne, with rain expected most of the day. It is something that Auckland haven't had to deal with for most of their season, with the vast majority of matches played under sunny skies. The AAMI Park field will also be heavier, cut up by yesterday's first semifinal between Melbourne City and Western United.
Striking first
It's a cliché but opening the scoring is crucial tonight. Auckland FC are great frontrunners – as they have shown all season – and are adept in transition if the opposition needs to chase the game. All 15 of their victories this season have come after they scored first. They haven't trailed many times this campaign but are yet to retrieve a deficit and come back and win.
The finals quest
Across their proud history Wellington Phoenix have never won a finals match in Australia, despite having some impressive squads down the years. That underlines the scale of tonight's task for Auckland FC, if they want to make history as a New Zealand side in the playoffs. Of course, a victory on Saturday is not imperative but the main focus will be going back to Go Media Stadium with something, as a draw would also be a solid base ahead of next week.
The travelling fans
There is expected to be a decent contingent of Auckland colour in the grandstands. A few hundred have made the trip over – some with a painful experience of the 6am flight from Auckland yesterday, with issues at Qantas check-in terminals resulting in massive queues – and they will be supplemented by expatriates taking the chance to see the Black Knights.
The mentality
Discipline, focus and especially concentration will be key tonight, as any lapses can have massive consequences. That was shown in last night's AAMI Park match, in the other semifinal. The first half was an even affair – with Melbourne City ahead 1-0 at the break – but Western United paid a harsh price for two poor moments in the second spell and the 3-0 defeat means the tie is all but over.
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