When the Devil drives: Ukraine will deploy a truly horrible weapon

Telegraph

2 days ago

The decision by Ukraine to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, known as the Mine Ban Treaty, comes as no surprise given the gravity of the situation that the embattled Ukrainians find themselves in in this third year of all-out war. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine there has been constant domestic pressure on the government and on President Zelensky to withdraw from the treaty, mainly for protective pragmatic reasons and in light of the fact that Russia is not a signatory to the treaty and is a prolific user of landmines.
The treaty of 1997 bans the use, production, stockpiling or transfer of anti-personnel landmines (APLs). It further requires signatory nations to destroy stockpiles and to clear laid minefields. Ukraine ratified the treaty in 2005. It is a fact that APLs are horrible things. They do not only maim and kill soldiers, but anyone who may approach including children and other non-combatants. They are extremely difficult and dangerous to clear up, and often render stretches of land unusable for many years. But they are extremely effective, particularly as a means of defence against an attacker.
In the face of the widespread use of mines by Russia since 2014 and especially post 2022, when Ukraine has been engaged in full-scale war with Russia, it increasingly looks nonsensical to have this significant disadvantage – designed for a world where the rules of the international order are followed by all sides and therefore a world that simply does not exist. The invasion by Russia has seen the increased use of mines of all sorts, though the use of anti-personnel mines by Ukraine has drawn scrutiny due to treaty obligations.
Ukrainian officials and military have floated the idea of leaving or suspending the treaty citing the need to defend territory more effectively, asymmetry in military tools and tactics between Ukraine and Russia and the fact that whilst Ukraine adheres to the treaty the aggressor faces no such limitations in what, for Ukraine, is an existential war.
It comes at a time when Russia's near neighbours in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Finland have withdrawn from the treaty this year, once again citing the fact that Russia has no such restrictions and learning the lesson of the surprise invasion of February 2022. The fighting in Ukraine has also shown just how easy it is to clear anti-tank mines – which are allowed under the Treaty – when these are not mixed with APLs.
The move is likely to be seen as a pragmatic move and looking to the USA – which is also not a signatory to the treaty but maintains a voluntary non-use outside of the Korean Peninsula – it is not ultimately one that should not upset too many of Ukraine's backers. The danger is that from a humanitarian, legal, and diplomatic standpoint, withdrawal would be controversial and potentially damaging.
That said – if your country no longer exists would that matter? Needs must when the Devil drives, I believe.