Who will be the next Pope? Italians try to predict with 'Fantapapa' game

Business Standard

30-04-2025

With traditional betting on the next Pope discouraged in Italy, thousands of Italians are turning to a unique online game called 'Fantapapa', inspired by fantasy sports leagues, reported Reuters.
As cardinals prepare for the secret conclave beginning May 7 to elect Pope Francis 's successor, international gambling companies are offering odds on potential candidates. But in the Vatican's homeland, no licenced platform is allowing such bets.
Instead, Fantapapa has captured public attention. The game allows users to select a fantasy team of 11 papal contenders—or papabili—and earn points when their chosen cardinals appear in the media. Bonus points are awarded if a pick becomes the new pope or if players correctly predict the name the pontiff adopts.
'As of now [Cardinal Matteo] Zuppi is the preferred candidate and, notably, most of the followers on our Instagram profile are women,' said Pietro Pace, one of the game's co-creators, in an interview with Reuters.
Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Episcopal Conference, is a prominent figure in the country and a serious contender.
Pace, an AI architect at Microsoft, teamed up with Mauro Vanetti, a video game developer, to build Fantapapa. They began working on the project in February when Pope Francis was hospitalised. The game—free and ad-free—launched shortly after the Pope's passing on April 21. This week, it neared 60,000 users. 'There are no prizes, it's just for fun and for eternal glory,' Pace said.
Italy out, world bets in
While Italy avoids turning the papal election into a betting spectacle, international markets are heating up. On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction site, over $10 million has been wagered on the next pope. In contrast, a potential US Federal Reserve decision in May has drawn nearly $30 million in bets.
British gambling group William Hill is already naming frontrunners. 'There's already plenty of speculation on the next Pope, and currently we make the Vatican Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin, our favourite at 9/4,' said Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for the company.
'Luis Antonio Tagle is second in our market at 3/1 and would become the first Asian Pope in history, while Matteo Zuppi and Peter Turkson are both priced at 6/1,' Phelps added.
Legal grey area for betting in Italy
Although technically legal, betting on papal elections is frowned upon in Italy. 'In Italy there is no law expressly prohibiting betting on the election of the pope,' explained Nicola Tani, head of Agipronews, a specialised media outlet.
'However, the Customs Agency, which authorises bets, has informally asked gaming licensees to avoid offering odds on the papal election, just like they do for Italian political races,' Tani said.