Trump and Hegseth are half right. We cannot have Minsk 3.0
US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth was half right when he announced today in Brussels that negotiations over the future of Ukraine 'must not be a Minsk 3.0.' He is right that the fiasco of Minsk cannot be repeated, but wrong to write off Nato membership and the US security guarantee in Europe.
According to Hegseth, Ukraine's security will have to be guaranteed by 'European and non-European troops' - but not the US military, and not under the umbrella of Nato or Article 5. Hegseth said that the primary burden of supporting Ukraine and of European security more broadly must fall on Europe itself, as America is 'prioritising deterring war with China in the Pacific.' He praised Nato members such as Poland which are meeting the alliance's five per cent defence spending target.
Hegseth's statement comes as President Trump announced the results of a 'highly productive' 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which the two agreed to begin negotiations over Ukraine 'immediately.'
The original Minsk agreements were failures precisely because they provided no real backing for Ukraine, only a phony ceasefire and endless talks while Russia continued to bolster rebels in the Donbass. The Trump administration is right that the new negotiations must not become a third Minsk, but it is wrong to take Ukrainian Nato membership off the table. No matter what Putin's propaganda may say, it is clear that he fears the Western alliance. In its imperial quest to rebuild the Soviet 'sphere of influence' Russia has attacked Moldova, Georgia, and now Ukraine, all countries lacking the protection of Nato membership. Clearly, Nato membership is a powerful deterrent; it is also one which Russia has no grounds to object to. After all, the United States makes no demands as to the membership of Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The Trump administration risks disarming itself of a key source of leverage before negotiations even begin.
In order to bargain effectively with Putin, the US must understand how he thinks. The President must avoid attributing to the Kremlin such behavior as he would attribute to Washington and instead seek to understand his opponent's mind games.
Putin understands that Trump wants to be perceived as a 'deal broker' who can, unlike his predecessor, create 'peace through strength.' He is not, therefore, opposed to giving Trump the 'gift' of freezing the conflict as a means of gaining his trust. However, he also believes he can get more by continuing to fight, and so any ceasefire that does not agree to all his terms will be considered temporary.
The Trump administration must understand that Putin will turn negotiations into 'Minsk 3.0' if given any opportunity, and that the only language he understands is power. Washington should maintain the powerful sanctions regime which has punished the Russian economy thus far. The Trump administration should continue to ensure a well armed Ukraine capable of fending off Russia on the ground, making it too costly for Moscow to achieve its objectives.
If the Trump administration mishandles Ukraine, it risks undermining the 'pivot to Asia' which Hegseth cites as the main driver of his policy approach. China will be watching and learning from the strength of US commitments in Europe. And while Trump is right that Europe can and should take on more responsibilities for its own security, this cannot mean leaving the continent unsupported. Otherwise, America will inevitably be brought back into Europe's instability, which will be even more costly.
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