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Trump sent shock-waves through the global copper industry on Tuesday by telling reporters that he would be slapping a 50% levy on copper imports — about double what the market was pricing in.
Chile — and particularly state-owned Codelco — would be the most affected producer given the country accounts for about 500,000 metric tons of the total of 700,000 tons of refined metal the US imports a year. Of that, Codelco alone ships about 350,000 tons.
Asked about Trump's remarks, Chile's Foreign Ministry pointed out that there's still no executive order regarding a Commerce Department investigation into copper tariffs, and that Chile is yet to receive notification of any decision. Similarly, Codelco Chairman Maximo Pacheco said it's too soon to draw conclusions.
Given that Chile accounts for such a large chunk of US copper imports and considering how difficult it would be to replace Chilean metal, there may be an element of negotiating tactics in pledging the 50% tariff, Ben Hoff, head of commodity research at Societe Generale.
'The big elephant in the room is Chile,' Hoff said by telephone.
Two major unknowns are whether there'll be country exemptions and whether the tariff will apply to both semi-fabricated copper products as well as refined metal, Pacheco said. The US needs that copper and Chile will continue to be ready to supply it, he said.
Chilean officials participated in public consultations in the framework of the Commerce Department investigation.
'We remain in contact and engaged in discussions on this and other matters with the relevant authorities and technical teams,' Chile's Foreign Ministry said in a written response.
(Adds comment from SocGen analysts in fifth and sixth paragraphs)
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